National Bank Open Presented by Rogers, Montreal, Canada - ATP 1000 Masters

[the AntiPusher]

Fils d Norrie 62 76 (8) a tight TB for the 2nd set, but Fils came through

Fils will play against Jodar in the QF.

I had an opportunity to watch the majority of Fils match vs Norrie who is one tough cookie to get pass. Norrie is very underrated. That being said, Fils says that he is playing more aggressively due to the very slow court speed of the courts in Montreal. Fils said a few days ago, its is almost at the clay level. Fils for my money provides more insights to the typical ATP player who gives just post match fluff. This style of play will NOT win him the title in Cincy or the USO especially against the current goats (Novak, Sinner or Carlitos) because those courts are typically lightening fast.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I had an opportunity to watch the majority of Fils match vs Norrie who is one tough cookie to get pass. Norrie is very underrated. That being said, Fils says that he is playing more aggressively due to the very slow court speed of the courts in Montreal. Fils said a few days ago, its is almost at the clay level. Fils for my money provides more insights to the typical ATP player who gives just post match fluff. This style of play will NOT win him the title in Cincy or the USO especially against the current goats (Novak, Sinner or Carlitos) because those courts are typically lightening fast.

I have to agree with you I have watched a few matches in Monteral, it is like playing on a slow clay court in ways
Cinncy is a fast hard court and players in Monteral will have to adjust their play,if they want to go far in Cinncy

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

No No MM.. Dr. Ivo and Giant has won the same amount of grand slams as Kieran, El Dude, Darth, Fiero and myself.. Sampras's serve is by far the greatest of all time.. No need to compare him to to big 6'10 Serve-Bots .. Come on MM, why are you hitting your brother AP with satire. I thought you and I were DOWN like 4 flat tires. jajajajaj

AP
Spoken like a true Pete Sampras fan ( my hubby Peter would also agree with you)

 

[Fiero425]

I had an opportunity to watch the majority of Fils match vs Norrie who is one tough cookie to get pass. Norrie is very underrated. That being said, Fils says that he is playing more aggressively due to the very slow court speed of the courts in Montreal. Fils said a few days ago, its is almost at the clay level. Fils for my money provides more insights to the typical ATP player who gives just post match fluff. This style of play will NOT win him the title in Cincy or the USO especially against the current goats (Novak, Sinner or Carlitos) because those courts are typically lightening fast.

Whenever I hear talk of "being more aggressive" or the court speed affecting their effort to impose their will, usually a prequel to physical injury!

 

[El Dude]

I should probably do an in-depth study, but Jodar's emergence this year is rather extraordinary. He's now #10 in the Race rankings, in his first season of ATP play. I don't think anyone has ever done that. Others have had better years at the same or a younger age, but not with the lack of ATP tour experience. He seems like a legit top 10 talent right now, while Fonzie seems stuck at the 15-25 level...sort of disheartening that he hasn't really improved this year, even if he's shown flashes (he showed flashes last year, too). I'm not tempering my expectations for Fonzie, I just think he's going to take a bit longer to "bake." But Jodar may be the story of the year.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I should probably do an in-depth study, but Jodar's emergence this year is rather extraordinary. He's now #10 in the Race rankings, in his first season of ATP play. I don't think anyone has ever done that. Others have had better years at the same or a younger age, but not with the lack of ATP tour experience. He seems like a legit top 10 talent right now, while Fonzie seems stuck at the 15-25 level...sort of disheartening that he hasn't really improved this year, even if he's shown flashes (he showed flashes last year, too). I'm not tempering my expectations for Fonzie, I just think he's going to take a bit longer to "bake." But Jodar may be the story of the year.

I think you should do an in depth study on Jodar his rise has been outstanding
I read that David Ferrer compares him to a young Rafa and Alcaraz in ways

 

[kskate2]

I had an opportunity to watch the majority of Fils match vs Norrie who is one tough cookie to get pass. Norrie is very underrated. That being said, Fils says that he is playing more aggressively due to the very slow court speed of the courts in Montreal. Fils said a few days ago, its is almost at the clay level. Fils for my money provides more insights to the typical ATP player who gives just post match fluff. This style of play will NOT win him the title in Cincy or the USO especially against the current goats (Novak, Sinner or Carlitos) because those courts are typically lightening fast.

no he's not, you haven't been paying attention. He is annoying as all get out. A dog w/ a bone and a very tough out. It's been talked about ad nauseum.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

For the "First Time Ever" all Masters QFs were born in the 2000s,

(18) Fils ( 22yo) vs Jodar (20) ( 19yo)
19 Darderi (24yo) vs Nakashima (28) (25yo)
(12) Tien (20 yo) vs Merida ( 21yo)
(13) Mensik (20) vs Shelton (5) (23 yo)

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I should probably do an in-depth study, but Jodar's emergence this year is rather extraordinary. He's now #10 in the Race rankings, in his first season of ATP play. I don't think anyone has ever done that. Others have had better years at the same or a younger age, but not with the lack of ATP tour experience. He seems like a legit top 10 talent right now, while Fonzie seems stuck at the 15-25 level...sort of disheartening that he hasn't really improved this year, even if he's shown flashes (he showed flashes last year, too). I'm not tempering my expectations for Fonzie, I just think he's going to take a bit longer to "bake." But Jodar may be the story of the year.

The closest one is Jannik Sinner, but that was due to the pandemic. He probably would have broken out at 18 if not for it, but he ended up missing the second half of age 18 due to the pandemic, so his breakout year was age 19. I think he made the Year End final in 2021 and finished 10th that year, in the first full year that wasn't interrupted by the pandemic. Also, if I remember correctly, Jannik finished 2021 ahead of Carlos (but it was pretty clear by the end of that year that men's tennis had found its next greats).

Maybe Fonseca has a 2005 Rafa/2022 Carlos-like breakout year in 2027.

 

[El Dude]

The closest one is Jannik Sinner, but that was due to the pandemic. He probably would have broken out at 18 if not for it, but he ended up missing the second half of age 18 due to the pandemic, so his breakout year was age 19. I think he made the Year End final in 2021 and finished 10th that year, in the first full year that wasn't interrupted by the pandemic. Also, if I remember correctly, Jannik finished 2021 ahead of Carlos (but it was pretty clear by the end of that year that men's tennis had found its next greats).

Maybe Fonseca has a 2005 Rafa/2022 Carlos-like breakout year in 2027.

Jannik was another that took a more gradual, Roger-esque developmental path, with his full breakout in 2024 at age 22-23, just like Roger in 2004.

Roger won his first Masters in 2002 at age 20, a few months before turning 21. I think that's a good "later first big title" barometer for possible greatness: A big title before turning 21, or at latest 22. Joao turns 21 a year from now, so he's got plenty of time to reach that threshold (Jodar, too). I expect both to win one before that, though.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Jannik was another that took a more gradual, Roger-esque developmental path, with his full breakout in 2024 at age 22-23, just like Roger in 2004.

Roger won his first Masters in 2002 at age 20, a few months before turning 21. I think that's a good "later first big title" barometer for possible greatness: A big title before turning 21, or at latest 22. Joao turns 21 a year from now, so he's got plenty of time to reach that threshold (Jodar, too). I expect both to win one before that, though.

Lets not forget Jannik really started tennis at age 13, after he gave up competitive skiing to focus on tennis going to the Piatti Tennis Center
Sinner barely played Junior ITF tournaments and never played Junior GS.
He started playing professional ITF futures and challenger events at age 16, accelerating his development by playing against tougher older adults
By 17, he won multiple challenger titles, broke into the Top 100 and won the 2019 Next Generation ATP Finals
2020 reached the French QFs as a teenager, won his first title in Sofia

 

[El Dude]

Lets not forget Jannik really started tennis at age 13, after he gave up competitive skiing to focus on tennis going to the Piatti Tennis Center
Sinner barely played Junior ITF tournaments and never played Junior GS.
He started playing professional ITF futures and challenger events at age 16, accelerating his development by playing against tougher older adults
By 17, he won multiple challenger titles, broke into the Top 100 and won the 2019 Next Generation ATP Finals
2020 reached the French QFs as a teenager, won his first title in Sofia

Yeah, there's also nothing wrong with taking longer to fully bake. It happens, especially with players that have complex games (Federer; to some extent, Fonseca). I wouldn't say Sinner's game is complex, but perhaps the rise we saw from late 2023-24 is akin to Novak's rise from the end of 2010 into 2011. Everything just came together. For Novak, I think the gluten thing had a lot to do with it. For Sinner, not so sure, except that he just really blossomed and has been the best overall player the last two and a half years.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Yeah, there's also nothing wrong with taking longer to fully bake. It happens, especially with players that have complex games (Federer; to some extent, Fonseca). I wouldn't say Sinner's game is complex, but perhaps the rise we saw from late 2023-24 is akin to Novak's rise from the end of 2010 into 2011. Everything just came together. For Novak, I think the gluten thing had a lot to do with it. For Sinner, not so sure, except that he just really blossomed and has been the best overall player the last two and a half years.

I liken the rise of Sinner and Alcarez to the IT community making the adjustments to Cybersecurity threats to learning AI and ML.. The rest of the tour is still focus on Cyber attacks while the top two are tackling AI.

 

[kskate2]

The new Rafa is a beast. He just took down Fils pretty convincingly. He was bossing most of the rallies from the baseline. This is the 2nd time they've played in consecutive weeks.

 

[the AntiPusher]

The new Rafa is a beast. He just took down Fils pretty convincingly. He was bossing most of the rallies from the baseline. This is the 2nd time they've played in consecutive weeks.

Yes Ma'am that was a very physical match.. Actually the same score as in D.C.. Fils and team have their work cut out for them.. this surface played towards Fils strength yet the Spaniard was the winner again. Fils is a grinder and got beat by a better player.

 

[kskate2]

May I remind you that Jannik remains underfeated in all the Masters 1000's he has played this year? completing a Career Golden Masters the youngest at age 24!, he also broke Djokovic's record for the longest streak in ATP Masters 1000!
At Wimbledon he faced 1 BP all match, in his SF match against Novak which he won with a good first serve and defeated him in straight sets
In the final against Zverev he also faced 1 BP all match again he served an Ace

I forgot to respond to this, but I'm actually glad he's not playing Cinci. He invested so much in the Sunshine and clay masters that he was burnt for RG. The goal is to peak for the slams. Depending on the season, play 1 or 2 masters, but not all of them especially if you win.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Yes Ma'am that was a very physical match.. Actually the same score as in D.C.. Fils and team have their work cut out for them.. this surface played towards Fils strength yet the Spaniard was the winner again. Fils is a grinder and got beat by a better player.

I was silent, but deep down inside laughing, when people suggested earlier this year that Fils had a higher upside than Ben. I knew that was clearly not true. Just look at the way Ben handled Fonseca and Mensik, compared to how Fils lost to Jodar. Ben is still better than the upcoming generation, whereas it looks like Fils has already been passed.

 

[kskate2]

I was silent, but deep down inside laughing, when people suggested earlier this year that Fils had a higher upside than Ben. I knew that was clearly not true. Just look at the way Ben handled Fonseca and Mensik, compared to how Fils lost to Jodar. Ben is still better than the upcoming generation, whereas it looks like Fils has already been passed.

I think it's too early to call it wrap on Fils. He's still very young and has time to get better. It could just be a matchup problem w/ Rafa. As for Ben, cmon he's been pretty terrible this year despite beating Fritz twice in finals. His return of serve and shot selection was so bad, we were all calling for him to cut daddy loose. I'm glad he either read these forums or listened to numerous podcast where his ROS was on blast.

 

[El Dude]

I don't thanks entirely fair to Fils, because his career has so interrupted the last couple years, and he hasn't really been able to gain momentum. That said, I do agree that Shelton has higher upside - and certainly he's actualized it more.

Still, Jodar is a beast. I can't believe how good he is already. #7 in the Race rankings - and it is his first year! A truly unprecedented rise. I think he wins this.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I don't thanks entirely fair to Fils, because his career has so interrupted the last couple years, and he hasn't really been able to gain momentum. That said, I do agree that Shelton has higher upside - and certainly he's actualized it more.

Still, Jodar is a beast. I can't believe how good he is already. #7 in the Race rankings - and it is his first year! A truly unprecedented rise. I think he wins this.

PE is gonna eat those words in the near future. Fils is coming