I'm not counting out the guy that's been to the last 6 Wimbledon finals, winning 4 of them. I still trust Novak more than Jannik at Wimbledon. I know that Novak has been there and done that many times over, whereas Jannik has never had to face the pressure of Wimbledon. It's very possible that Jannik is upset early. But even if it doesn't happen, this is the one environment where I'm taking Novak over Jannik. You saw how Jannik struggled with the pressure today closing out the match. If he can't handle that pressure, I can't see him handling the pressure at Wimbledon, an environment Jannik has never really faced before.
Carlos is the only player I have favored over Novak at Wimbledon. Carlos proved last year that he can follow-up a French Open run with another one at Wimbledon. Jannik has not proven that yet.
But even then, Carlos isn't immune to an upset at Wimbledon. If someone takes Carlos out early, Novak becomes the favorite.