5 Before 25 Club

[El Dude]

With his fifth Grand Slam title, Jannik Sinner became the ninth player of the Open Era to win 5 Grand Slams before turning 25 years old, which he does in August, just before the US Open. Here are the players:

BORG 10 (1 more the day after turning 25)
NADAL 9 (won his 10th two days after turning 25, and 13 more)
FEDERER 8 (won 12 more)
WILANDER 7 (no more)
SAMPRAS 7 (won 7 more)
ALCARAZ 7 (still has six remaining Slam tournaments before turning 25)
BECKER 5 (won 1 more)
DJOKOVIC 5 (won 19 more)
SINNER 5

Absent among players who eventually won 5 or more are Connors (4), Edberg (4), and Agassi (3). Laver and Newcombe also won 5 Slams in the Open Era; Newcombe won 2 before turning 25, both in the amateur era. Laver won 6 amateur Slams before turning 25 and 5 Open Era Slams after, with a bunch of Pro Slams in-between.

Of particular note, of the eight previous players other than Sincaraz, five of them won at least as many after turning 25 as before. Only Borg, Wilander, and Becker didn't. This doesn't mean Sinner and Alcaraz will definitely double (or more) their Slam count, but that it is likely based on historical precedents.

And of course Carlos has six more to go to add to his total, with a chance of surpassing Borg. But he'd have to win the majority of the next six to do that, and half to tie Borg.

Anyhow, who knows how many they'll both eventually win. That question depends upon two intersecting factors:

1. How they age - both in terms of decline from peak level, but also health.
2. Who arises in their wake.

The "Big Three Phenomena" of 20+ Slams a piece is due to how those two interacted; all three aged extraordinarily well - really, in an unprecedented way. This is probably due to a combination of better fitness resources and routines, and also the will to continue on, largely because of their combination with each other. We simply don't know if their slow declines is repeatable, or at least to the same degree.

The second factor is also crucial: The Big Three were followed by two particularly weak generations, with no "great" players born after Novak in 1987 until Jannik in 2001. That's a 14-year gap of greats. Or we can get a visual:

This chart illustrates the big gap between Nadal/Djokovic and Sinner/Alcaraz, in terms of Slams won by people born in certain birth years. It ties the longest gap without a single Slam winner with 1989-1992, the same as 1939-42, but more so includes a 12-year period (1989-2000) in which only three Slam titles came from people born in those years.

Chances are that Sincaraz won't be helped in quite that way.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Chances are that Sincaraz won't be helped in quite that way.

You're already seeing this with the emergence of the Mensik/Fonseca/Jodar cohort at the French Open.

Nadal and Djokovic's biggest challengers were before or with them, in Wawrinka and Murray. Raonic and Dmitrov were the biggest players born 2-3 years after, and they didn't announce themselves until 2014 Wimbledon, when they were 23.

 

[El Dude]

You're already seeing this with the emergence of the Mensik/Fonseca/Jodar cohort at the French Open.

Nadal and Djokovic's biggest challengers were before or with them, in Wawrinka and Murray. Raonic and Dmitrov were the biggest players born 2-3 years after, and they didn't announce themselves until 2014 Wimbledon, when they were 23.

Yeah, though I'd add Nishikori with Raonic and Dimitrov. To me those are the "Little Three" of Lost Gen, and I think you could argue that Nishikori was the best of them, even though Grigor is the one who won big titles.

I'm mostly optimistic about those three young guys, but I don't think we're quite through the "trial period" where it is clear whether they're more Dimitrov/Raonic/Nishikori, or true elite players. I do still think that Fonzie has a real chance to be a great player and at least a multi-Slam winner. What Jodar has done as a first year player is rather amazing, even if he is oldish for first year. Mensik flashes a high level at times and I think will get there. I sort of envision him as a Berdych/Tsonga type with a big extra, and with a Big Two ahead of him rather than a Big Four.

Tien would probably be next, but I see him more as a high floor type than a future elite. He is still very young, but I was impressed with Moise Kouame. He's a player to watch in 2027.