Will Novak pass Rafa?

[don_fabio]

It's crazy right? Novak was so much behind Rafa and Roger and has now come only one slam away.

It think that in some way a half season played last year, call it a light schedule for Novak, has helped him in a big way to be where he is at the moment. He had a fairly easy season last year and is now doing his last prime push to propell him to 20 slams or more.

 

[Front242]

Will Novak pass Rafa?​

Does the bear shit in the woods?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Novak needs to keep away from Hollywood, Bollywood, Trolleywood etc. Then, he can do it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

John McEnroe predicts Novak will win at least 25 Slams.

 

[El Dude]

My guess is 3-4 more. I don't see 5, but who knows. I love Mac, but he's a blowhard and prone to hyperbole.

 

[Fiero425]

My guess is 3-4 more. I don't see 5, but who knows. I love Mac, but he's a blowhard and prone to hyperbole.

People had already started to anoint Djokovic the GOAT years ago; pretty much after he completed his Nole-Slam! It wasn't just McEnroe, but other past stars like Wilander! Nole had a little dry spell which allowed Federer to add to his totals, but things went back to normal after 2018 Wimbledon! He's been winning Majors in bunches since 2011 and is projected to jet past the more appealing Fedal! Tthe numbers will make them all look like fools trying to contort reasoning to keep Nole in 3rd place! It's rather pathetic since sports shouldn't be about popularity, but actual stats and numbers!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

My guess is 3-4 more. I don't see 5, but who knows. I love Mac, but he's a blowhard and prone to hyperbole.

You say JMac is prone to hyperbole and I do agree with that.

Look at what Brad Gilbert says.

He predicts that in the next 13 GSs (this years USO + three more years), Novak will win about five to seven.

At least JMac put it at 5 and that too in the entire career of Novak.

 

[El Dude]

You say JMac is prone to hyperbole and I do agree with that.

Look at what Brad Gilbert says.

He predicts that in the next 13 GSs (this years USO + three more years), Novak will win about five to seven.

At least JMac put it at 6 and that too in the entire career of Novak.

Of course he could win 27, but I just don't see him sustaining the drive once he puts some distance between him and Roger/Rafa. Maintaining the kind of focus it takes to play at this level, Slam after Slam, is exceedingly difficult. I mean, part of what drove Novak to such heights is that for years he was always the third wheel on the Fedalcycle (stupid, I know). Three years in a row at #3, and no Slams after the one in 2008. What work on himself he did in late 2010 led to 2011 and beyond. And even then, he was playing catch-up for another decade. Now he's arrived, and we don't know what sort of psychological impact it will have once he passes them.

And further, if he does win the USO this year, he'll have done the most lauded accomplishment in tennis, for the first time of any man since Laver 52 years ago. I think we'll see an immediate dip, or shortly after, and then he'll bounce back and win 2-3 more over the next couple years, but that's it. So I'm sticking with 23-24.

All speculation, of course.

 

[backhandslapper]

Of course he could win 27, but I just don't see him sustaining the drive once he puts some distance between him and Roger/Rafa. Maintaining the kind of focus it takes to play at this level, Slam after Slam, is exceedingly difficult. I mean, part of what drove Novak to such heights is that for years he was always the third wheel on the Fedalcycle (stupid, I know). Three years in a row at #3, and no Slams after the one in 2008. What work on himself he did in late 2010 led to 2011 and beyond. And even then, he was playing catch-up for another decade. Now he's arrived, and we don't know what sort of psychological impact it will have once he passes them.

And further, if he does win the USO this year, he'll have done the most lauded accomplishment in tennis, for the first time of any man since Laver 52 years ago. I think we'll see an immediate dip, or shortly after, and then he'll bounce back and win 2-3 more over the next couple years, but that's it. So I'm sticking with 23-24.

All speculation, of course.

Plus, there's the age. It's not purely psychological. Age-related decline is already happening, and at this stage, going from dominant -> competitive -> semi-competitive to a has-been can happen virtually overnight. He'll be more vulnerable to injuries, less likely to recover from them fully, more likely not to really want to do it anymore. He's 34. Seven more majors seems too high a mountain to climb, even for this alien.

 

[Fiero425]

Plus, there's the age. It's not purely psychological. Age-related decline is already happening, and at this stage, going from dominant -> competitive -> semi-competitive to a has-been can happen virtually overnight. He'll be more vulnerable to injuries, less likely to recover from them fully, more likely not to really want to do it anymore. He's 34. Seven more majors seems too high a mountain to climb, even for this alien.

Did you think he w/b in the running for an OGCYGS; at this pt. for anyone @ 34 yo? Nole's doing it comfortably even when down in a match!

 

[backhandslapper]

Did you think he w/b in the running for an OGCYGS; at this pt. for anyone @ 34 yo? Nole's doing it comfortably even when down in a match!

No. But me being wrong about it while he's 34 doesn't mean he'll be comfortably accomplishing as much at 36. Time catches them all, eventually.

 

[rafanoy1992]

A Rafa-Novak final would be grand. Unlike 2015, Rafa is in good enough form that a Novak victory would be well-earned, and Novak is in good enough form that Rafa would actually be challenged by him. It would also be the most important slam for Novak to win to pass Rafa, as not only would he be adding to his tally, but he would be taking away a win from Rafa.

That said, I think it is a foregone conclusion that Rafa passes Roger, and Novak passes Rafa. It is the way of things: records are broken. I just think that Rafa really wants to pass Roger and will do what it takes to stay fit enough to do so, and likewise with Novak. So we'll probably end with:

Novak 22
Rafa 21
Roger 20

@Moxie @MargaretMcAleer @Jelenafan @Kieran

So, El Dude is half right in his prediction

 

[rafanoy1992]

Steering back this thread to the original purpose. El Dude actually had the closest prediction so far (this post was made around Feb 2020). The only thing now is can Djokovic win 5 more slams after the age of 33.5 years old? Looking at his body language throughout 2020, he can do it but man it will be really really tough task to accomplish. But, hey if he does accomplish it, he will earned it for sure.

Now, here's my predictions of the final tally between the Big Three:

Most likely outcome (my opinion only):

Nadal - 22
Djokovic - 20 or 21
Federer - 20

Here's my other prediction:

Nadal - 21
Federer - 21
Djokovic - 20

Here's my own prediction

@Moxie @MargaretMcAleer @Kieran @Jelenafan @tented

Not too shabby, right?

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Here's my own prediction

@Moxie @MargaretMcAleer @Kieran @Jelenafan @tented

Not too shabby, right?

Not too shabby at all

 

[Moxie]

Here's my own prediction

@Moxie @MargaretMcAleer @Kieran @Jelenafan @tented

Not too shabby, right?

Not to denigrate, but you are close in the snapshot of now. Or at it. And I give you all kudos for it. Honestly, I'm not sure I'd have braved it. BUT: Nadal maybe not finished (thought I don't think so,) Djokovic probably not finished, Federer all but certainly finished. Do you have an update on your prediction?

 

[rafanoy1992]

Not to denigrate, but you are close in the snapshot of now. Or at it. And I give you all kudos for it. Honestly, I'm not sure I'd have braved it. BUT: Nadal maybe not finished (thought I don't think so,) Djokovic probably not finished, Federer all but certainly finished. Do you have an update on your prediction?

As for Nadal, I think if his foot holds, I think he wins 1 more slam between 2023 RG, 2022 Wimbledon or 2022 US Open. Sorry, I think he is done winning Aussie Open.

As for Djokovic, he is a lot tougher to predict because of the various factors surrounding him. One thing for sure: Winning slams at 35 years old will be A LOT tougher especially if you can only play 2 slams per year.

 

[Moxie]

As for Nadal, I think if his foot holds, I think he wins 1 more slam between 2023 RG, 2022 Wimbledon or 2022 US Open. Sorry, I think he is done winning Aussie Open.

As for Djokovic, he is a lot tougher to predict because of the various factors surrounding him. One thing for sure: Winning slams at 35 years old will be A LOT tougher especially if you can only play 2 slams per year.

I think he could get one or 2. I know @the AntiPusher has been pushing for him to get to 25 for a long time, and kudos for that. He'll probably be closer than I ever even hoped. I get there are a lot of unknowns with Djokovic. I've been saying for ages that the youngsters were about to encroach, and I have just been wrong. (And by which I meant on Rafa, too.) Eventually, if I'm right, at this point, it will just be the broken clock scenario. Hard to tell if Novak will keep ticking before the kids or time gets him. But he owes 3 Majors now, to surpass Rafa, and that's no small thing, at 35, and Rafa may well not be done. Not what most folks were predicting based on this thread, so, again, well-done you!

 

[rafanoy1992]

I think he could get one or 2. I know @the AntiPusher has been pushing for him to get to 25 for a long time, and kudos for that. He'll probably be closer than I ever even hoped. I get there are a lot of unknowns with Djokovic. I've been saying for ages that the youngsters were about to encroach, and I have just been wrong. (And by which I meant on Rafa, too.) Eventually, if I'm right, at this point, it will just be the broken clock scenario. Hard to tell if Novak will keep ticking before the kids or time gets him. But he owes 3 Majors now, to surpass Rafa, and that's no small thing, at 35, and Rafa may well not be done. Not what most folks were predicting based on this thread, so, again, well-done you!

I will say this: Both Hardcourt slams (AO and USO) will definitely be a lot harder for Djokovic to win because of three players: Medvedev, Alcaraz, and FAA. And we all know about Clay, so Grass is his best opportunity at this point and even then he is not as automatic as Rafa as on Clay (nobody does) due to age.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I like how he incorporates Alcaraz in this equation of the Slam race. What I disagree with him though is how he views Djokovic he can win slams well into his mid 30's (35 and above). While Djokovic is definitely more "fit" or less injured than Nadal, it does not guarantee Djokovic that he will win 3+ slams easily at age 35 and above. I mean Federer was "fit" until he was 38 years old and he was still struggling to win slams. I know I sound a broken record, but at the end of the day Novak Djokovic is still human and 35 years old. He will still win big titles, but not at the same rate as he used to do it regularly.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I like how he incorporates Alcaraz in this equation of the Slam race. What I disagree with him though is how he views Djokovic he can win slams well into his mid 30's (35 and above). While Djokovic is definitely more "fit" or less injured than Nadal, it does not guarantee Djokovic that he will win 3+ slams easily at age 35 and above. I mean Federer was "fit" until he was 38 years old and he was still struggling to win slams. I know I sound a broken record, but at the end of the day Novak Djokovic is still human and 35 years old. He will still win big titles, but not at the same rate as he used to do it regularly.

Good points however I don't trust the Next Gen, Medvedev Zverev Tsitipas and especially Rublev vs Novak in a GS format. Tsitipas, Zverev and even Medvedev all had collapses at the slams over the past 3 to 4 years. Yes Medvedev finally caught lightning in a bottle at the USO 2021 praise God and Sascha stop Novak at the Olympics a few weeks earlier. As long as Novak's health remains relatively stable, He is the major threat for winning all the majors. The BEST hope is for FAA and Alvarez to continue to grow their games to run Novak's ole 35-37 azz out of the game. Until then Novak will remain a young 35 and they will continue to hug him afterwards every match because he strikes the ball so perfectly. That's why they like him but admires the way Rafa competes. IMO