The effect of year off on older vs. younger generation

[roberto]

Do you think that Djokovic, Fed and Rafa will use the time off to up their fitness for one final push will enable them to stay ahead of gen next who can do the same thing?

 

[Horsa]

I don't know whether they will but there's a possibility they will do & I think it's a good idea. It would also be a good idea not to overdo it. It would give them something to do while they can't do what they normally do in the way they'd normally do it anyway.

 

[Moxie]

I wrote this on another thread, but I think all 3 benefit from giving their bodies a break at this stage of their careers. This could also a benefit to older/injured players...Murray and del Potro, probably Stan, with his dodgy knees. Kokkinakis is a younger one who's on the DL again. I think it's possibly a set-back for the younger ones. They need the experience and also they're missing out on potential big wins (and big money) in their salad years. Plus most won't have ever had a break like this in their careers, whereas the older ones have, and have the experience of coming back from them. I think it's potentially pretty disruptive for some of the younger ones. Kyrgios is one who's had a lot of injuries and maybe could use a rest, but does anyone think he's having a disciplined, fitness-filled layoff?

 

[Nadalfan2013]

This is horrible for Nadal and Djokovic as they had won the past 8 slams and were on a roll. They were going for the slam record and this has all stopped. They are not getting younger so it will be that much harder to pick up where they left.

This is amazing for Federer as he was having surgery and was gonna miss that part of the year anyways. And frankly at almost 40 years old and coming back from surgery the odds of him lifting another slam trophy were low. He gets to protect his slam record and his most weeks at number one record without doing anything, just by unlimited luck.

As for the younger generation this is neither horrible or amazing, it won’t be a big deal as they will have many years. However they will have less time left to deal with Nadal and Djokovic, so I guess afterall it’s a good thing for them. But their luck is nowhere near the luck of Coviderer.

 

[Moxie]

This is horrible for Nadal and Djokovic as they had won the past 8 slams and were on a roll. They were going for the slam record and this has all stopped. They are not getting younger so it will be that much harder to pick up where they left.

This is amazing for Federer as he was having surgery and was gonna miss that part of the year anyways. And frankly at almost 40 years old and coming back from surgery the odds of him lifting another slam trophy were low. He gets to protect his slam record and his most weeks at number one record without doing anything, just by unlimited luck.

As for the younger generation this is neither horrible or amazing, it won’t be a big deal as they will have many years. However they will have less time left to deal with Nadal and Djokovic, so I guess afterall it’s a good thing for them. But their luck is nowhere near the luck of Coviderer.

There is no way that this is good luck for Roger. One more Wimbledon just passed that he can't challenge. He will be 39 whenever the next Major is played, and he's running out of time.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

There is no way that this is good luck for Roger. One more Wimbledon just passed that he can't challenge. He will be 39 whenever the next Major is played, and he's running out of time.

Sorry but there’s no way that Federer after a surgery at 39 would have won Wimbledon. No chance. The biggest losers are Nadal and Djokovic. Nadal would have been the clear favourite at the French, Djokovic the favourite at Wimbledon, and probably both Nadal/Djokovic at the U.S. Open. Federer would have been even behind the likes of Medvedev, Thiem, etc.

 

[Moxie]

Sorry but there’s no way that Federer after a surgery at 39 would have won Wimbledon. No chance. The biggest losers are Nadal and Djokovic. Nadal would have been the clear favourite at the French, Djokovic the favourite at Wimbledon, and probably both Nadal/Djokovic at the U.S. Open. Federer would have been even behind the likes of Medvedev, Thiem, etc.

While I'm not personally of the opinion that Roger is going to win another major, for you to say "no chance" is extravagantly confident. He had 2 championship points to win it just a year ago. While I agree that Djokovic would have been the favorite to win Wimbledon, had they played it this year, you conveniently skipped that Roger would have been the 2nd favorite, if not co-favorite. That's the point. It was a loss of opportunity for him, and they are waning. He's going to need a bit of luck, IMO, say good draw and the Novak/Rafa to go out earlier, but it could happen. But it won't happen if they don't play the tournament. Nadal and Djokovic both have a few good years left, I think, with Djokovic likely the most. There is a decent chance that the only Major to be played this year is the one that Novak already won, so I don't see him as particularly unfortunate at this moment, especially if the next one to be played might well be his best...AO next year. I don't see him as the biggest loser in this situation.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

While I'm not personally of the opinion that Roger is going to win another major, for you to say "no chance" is extravagantly confident. He had 2 championship points to win it just a year ago. While I agree that Djokovic would have been the favorite to win Wimbledon, had they played it this year, you conveniently skipped that Roger would have been the 2nd favorite, if not co-favorite. That's the point. It was a loss of opportunity for him, and they are waning. He's going to need a bit of luck, IMO, say good draw and the Novak/Rafa to go out earlier, but it could happen. But it won't happen if they don't play the tournament. Nadal and Djokovic both have a few good years left, I think, with Djokovic likely the most. There is a decent chance that the only Major to be played this year is the one that Novak already won, so I don't see him as particularly unfortunate at this moment, especially if the next one to be played might well be his best...AO next year. I don't see him as the biggest loser in this situation.

In a normal scenario he might have been the second favourite but not when coming off a knee surgery after months of layoff at 39 years old. It’s just wishful thinking.

 

[El Dude]

I wrote this on another thread, but I think all 3 benefit from giving their bodies a break at this stage of their careers. This could also a benefit to older/injured players...Murray and del Potro, probably Stan, with his dodgy knees. Kokkinakis is a younger one who's on the DL again. I think it's possibly a set-back for the younger ones. They need the experience and also they're missing out on potential big wins (and big money) in their salad years. Plus most won't have ever had a break like this in their careers, whereas the older ones have, and have the experience of coming back from them. I think it's potentially pretty disruptive for some of the younger ones. Kyrgios is one who's had a lot of injuries and maybe could use a rest, but does anyone think he's having a disciplined, fitness-filled layoff?

I think you just figured out the truth of the Covid Conspiracy: It was engineered by Federer, Nadal and Djokovic to extend their hegemony.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

not good for the old blokes..djoko 33, rafa 34 and fedster 39 by the time tennis reactivates.

nadal said something similar recently, at 20 you have many years etc...anyway, it is the same for all players young or old, so there is that.

 

[mrzz]

The relatively short break is good for the older ones, who need more time to recover, not only on a daily basis, but from the mild strains high level sports always impose on your body.

It also benefits heavily the ones with more means: they can travel to wherever they want, they might have courts in their back yards. They can really train if they want to.

This will also show who "wants more". It will be very easy for anyone to lose focus and under train. Guys who manage to stay focused, train hard, will arrive on the other end of this with a huge advantage. I bet there will be a lot of unexpected blow outs in the early tournaments.

All this points to a step back for the next and next next geners. Curious to see what happens to Medvedev. One guy I expect to capitalize on this is Thiem.

 

[Moxie]

The relatively short break is good for the older ones, who need more time to recover, not only on a daily basis, but from the mild strains high level sports always impose on your body.

It also benefits heavily the ones with more means: they can travel to wherever they want, they might have courts in their back yards. They can really train if they want to.

This will also show who "wants more". It will be very easy for anyone to lose focus and under train. Guys who manage to stay focused, train hard, will arrive on the other end of this with a huge advantage. I bet there will be a lot of unexpected blow outs in the early tournaments.

All this points to a step back for the next and next next geners. Curious to see what happens to Medvedev. One guy I expect to capitalize on this is Thiem.

I agree with all of this, particularly the bolded above. It's a real test of drive and focus for the younger ones. I can see why you think Thiem will do well, as he has a history of hard-training and good focus. I've also wondered how Medvedev will come out of it...it had a pretty good head of steam when the music stopped.

 

[El Dude]

I think it somewhat equalizes and really comes down to the individual. No age demographic is inherently more or less impacted by the layoff, at least in the next year or two, except for perhaps the really young players who--with proper training--will return to tour more physically mature. Meaning, Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime, et al.

Aging isn't some set thing. It has a lot to do with wear and tear. This is why you have some 40 year olds who look 50, and some who look 30. The old guys are getting older, but they're also not undergoing the relatively grueling process of touring. Meaning, a long-rested Roger at 39 may actually be "younger" than him tired at 38.5.

One player who might significantly benefit from this is Andy Murray. I have been under the impression that he'll never come anywhere close to peak form, that at best we might see his version of latter-day Lleyton Hewitt, but rather than Hewitt's #20-30 ranking, Andy might manage #10-20. But he's getting a lot of time to rest and heal, and with proper training he might be able to manage a significant comeback. I don't think he'll ever be what he was, but he has a chance to surprise us a bit once tennis resumes...assuming he doesn't just retire. But I still don't think he'll ever win another Slam, and will be hard-pressed to win even a Masters with the other Big Three still around, and the deepening younger field. But he could manage to be a robust #10ish player for a couple years.

The way it may impact the Big Three is in shortening their windows a bit, but less so because of their chronological ages and moreso because of the young guys. The above still applies: it may actually lengthen their playing years a bit, depending upon their training, nutrition, etc. On the other hand, the young guys have been gradually getting closer in the rear-view mirror, so the most important part of their windows has been the near-term future, so in the end I think the layoff somewhat hurts the older players, at least so far as padding their career resumes. Roger can still manage to eek out 110 titles if he so desires, but he is probably slightly less likely to get #21--especially with Wimbledon off the books this year--and Rafa and Novak slightly less likely to get to 20+ Slams.

So in summary, my take is:

• Overall impact comes down to the individual.
• Very young players (<21) may come back to tour somewhat improved, due to physical maturation.
• Andy Murray could receive a positive boost, although unlikely to peak form.
• Roger Federer's chances of 110 titles remains the same, but slightly less likely for Slam #21.
• Novak and Rafa are in a similar boat to each other: Should be dominant once tennis resumes, but overall career numbers may be slightly diminished due to narrowed window as younger generations get better.

 

[Jelenafan]

The relatively short break is good for the older ones, who need more time to recover, not only on a daily basis, but from the mild strains high level sports always impose on your body.

It also benefits heavily the ones with more means: they can travel to wherever they want, they might have courts in their back yards. They can really train if they want to.

This will also show who "wants more". It will be very easy for anyone to lose focus and under train. Guys who manage to stay focused, train hard, will arrive on the other end of this with a huge advantage. I bet there will be a lot of unexpected blow outs in the early tournaments.

All this points to a step back for the next and next next geners. Curious to see what happens to Medvedev. One guy I expect to capitalize on this is Thiem.

You don’t fool me. Just rationalizing your prediction failure that the big-3 were done winning any more Majors

 

[Moxie]

I think it somewhat equalizes and really comes down to the individual. No age demographic is inherently more or less impacted by the layoff, at least in the next year or two, except for perhaps the really young players who--with proper training--will return to tour more physically mature. Meaning, Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime, et al.

Aging isn't some set thing. It has a lot to do with wear and tear. This is why you have some 40 year olds who look 50, and some who look 30. The old guys are getting older, but they're also not undergoing the relatively grueling process of touring. Meaning, a long-rested Roger at 39 may actually be "younger" than him tired at 38.5.

One player who might significantly benefit from this is Andy Murray. I have been under the impression that he'll never come anywhere close to peak form, that at best we might see his version of latter-day Lleyton Hewitt, but rather than Hewitt's #20-30 ranking, Andy might manage #10-20. But he's getting a lot of time to rest and heal, and with proper training he might be able to manage a significant comeback. I don't think he'll ever be what he was, but he has a chance to surprise us a bit once tennis resumes...assuming he doesn't just retire. But I still don't think he'll ever win another Slam, and will be hard-pressed to win even a Masters with the other Big Three still around, and the deepening younger field. But he could manage to be a robust #10ish player for a couple years.

The way it may impact the Big Three is in shortening their windows a bit, but less so because of their chronological ages and moreso because of the young guys. The above still applies: it may actually lengthen their playing years a bit, depending upon their training, nutrition, etc. On the other hand, the young guys have been gradually getting closer in the rear-view mirror, so the most important part of their windows has been the near-term future, so in the end I think the layoff somewhat hurts the older players, at least so far as padding their career resumes. Roger can still manage to eek out 110 titles if he so desires, but he is probably slightly less likely to get #21--especially with Wimbledon off the books this year--and Rafa and Novak slightly less likely to get to 20+ Slams.

So in summary, my take is:

• Overall impact comes down to the individual.
• Very young players (<21) may come back to tour somewhat improved, due to physical maturation.
• Andy Murray could receive a positive boost, although unlikely to peak form.
• Roger Federer's chances of 110 titles remains the same, but slightly less likely for Slam #21.
• Novak and Rafa are in a similar boat to each other: Should be dominant once tennis resumes, but overall career numbers may be slightly diminished due to narrowed window as younger generations get better.

Nicely consolidated. I mentioned Murray, and also del Potro and Wawrinka who could benefit from rest and recovery. Good point I think about the teenagers having time to mature, physically, so as you say, and @mrzz has said, it depends on the individual. As sort-of prodigies, what they don't get is a chance to mature on the tour, so they're still losing some valuable time. For the ones who are focused and working hard, it may be an OK trade-off. Basically, though, I agree with all points.

 

[mrzz]

You don’t fool me. Just rationalizing your prediction failure that the big-3 were done winning any more Majors

Believe it or not I kind of forgot that... but, hey, now I can say that they were lucky in 2019 and extremely lucky in 2020!

 

[El Dude]

Nicely consolidated. I mentioned Murray, and also del Potro and Wawrinka who could benefit from rest and recovery. Good point I think about the teenagers having time to mature, physically, so as you say, and @mrzz has said, it depends on the individual. As sort-of prodigies, what they don't get is a chance to mature on the tour, so they're still losing some valuable time. For the ones who are focused and working hard, it may be an OK trade-off. Basically, though, I agree with all points.

Yeah, good point (mature on tour). The part I was trying to parse out was physical maturity - some of the really young guys are still pretty gangly and haven't completed their growth, whether vertically or horizontally. But I agree that the lack of actual match experience is a big set-back, especially for the young guys. The older players have all experienced big layoffs.

It will be interesting to see how Nick Kyrgios comes back. With his lacadaisical attitude and penchant for poor training, he could be a step behind everyone. But if he mentally matures focuses in, he could be a force.

One consideration about Rafa. He generally needs time to build up his game, and is a player of momentum and rhythm. I think of 2013, when he started his comeback losing to Zeballos and then was virtually unbeatable until later in the year. If I'm a Rafa fan I'm hoping that he gets at least one tournament in before Roland Garros, to minimize the chances of an upset. I wouldn't be too worried, but something to keep in mind.

 

[Moxie]

Yeah, good point (mature on tour). The part I was trying to parse out was physical maturity - some of the really young guys are still pretty gangly and haven't completed their growth, whether vertically or horizontally. But I agree that the lack of actual match experience is a big set-back, especially for the young guys. The older players have all experienced big layoffs.

It will be interesting to see how Nick Kyrgios comes back. With his lacadaisical attitude and penchant for poor training, he could be a step behind everyone. But if he mentally matures focuses in, he could be a force.

One consideration about Rafa. He generally needs time to build up his game, and is a player of momentum and rhythm. I think of 2013, when he started his comeback losing to Zeballos and then was virtually unbeatable until later in the year. If I'm a Rafa fan I'm hoping that he gets at least one tournament in before Roland Garros, to minimize the chances of an upset. I wouldn't be too worried, but something to keep in mind.

I thought of the teenagers, too, and I think it's plus/minus/hard to say. We'll just see. I also asked about Kyrgios above. He's got some injuries, but does he have the discipline to make the most of the lay-off? Also asked (with Mrzz) about Medvedev...any opinion?

I think the notion of Rafa needing to play himself into shape is a bit antique. He's learned that playing less and relying on confidence and experience serves him better. He's said as much. I think they'd all prefer a tune-up before going straight into a Major, but if that Major is RG, I'd worry less about Rafa than everyone else.

 

[Jelenafan]

There are two players in particular I'm curious to see how they come off this long hiatus: Medvedev and Felix (FAA).

I got the impression that by Nov. last year Medvedev's run had caught up to him and he was a bit fried, and frankly this year he was getting some bad losses. So maybe a long break is just what the doctor ordered to get some of his mojo back.

As to FAA, He's still very young and as he continues to mature physically, he was bound to get some bad losses along the way. I dunno, sometimes young gifted players lose so much early in their careers that it raises havoc with their mindset and never quite make the quantum leap to champs because they get used to losing, if that makes any sense. What if FAA can mature a bit without having to weather a dozen losses along the way...

 

[mrzz]

The part of lack tournaments and match play for me is clearly an advantage to all less experienced players. The tour is tough, mentally. Tournaments every week, flights, new places, you need to reset everything and start from scratch... and show your A game on court from round 1 (as a very few players have either the skills or the experience to win consistently with less than that). The big guys navigate all that well, the others are just learning how to do it.

The competitive juices will be there for anyone, they are professional players after all, so that's their defining characteristic.

I will give my prediction of a few random players:

Djokovic: comes back at the same level
Nadal: comes back slightly bellow where he was
Federer: comes back a step above where he was
Thiem: comes back a step and a half above where he was
Zverev: comes back a step above where he was
Medvedev: comes back a step above where he was
Tsitispas: don't know don't care
Wawrinka: comes back a step above where he was
del Potro: don't know hope he does fine
Murray: comes back two and a half steps above where he was (unfortunately, douchbag)
Fognini: comes back 5 steps bellow where he was
Paire: comes back 5 steps bellow where he was
Kyrgios: comes back 1 and half steps above where he was
Raonic: comes back 2 step above where he was (thus quite close to his best)
Nishikori: don't know
Cilic: comes back one step above where he was but still far from his best
Rublev and Kachanov: don't know, just hope they tear some heads off
FAA: one and a half steps above where he was

South Americans in general will be relatively stronger to the field I guess.