Shanghai Rolex Masters 2026, China - ATP 1000 Masters

MargaretMcAleer

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Bad luck for Arthur Gea who had to retire in the 1st set v Davidovich Fokina, trailing 1-4 with a right quad and hip injury, he called for a trainer and took a MTO, attempted to play just 3 more points before he could not continue
Davidovich Fokina wins via retirement, he will play the winner of Zverev v de Minaur in the SF.
 

MargaretMcAleer

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Ever since Foki got the monkey off his back w/ his first title win, he's winning matches he would normally lose.
Well seeing he had trouble with his movement in his match against Hubi, though he came through and won, to me he was under a bit of a injury cloud, agree with your comments getting that monkey off his back with his first title win., has done wonders for him, winning breeds success.
 

MargaretMcAleer

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With de Minaur's defeat in the QF
The race to the ATP finals with players that are still in contention,
5. Cobolli 3,540
6. Tiafoe 3,380 ( though he has just withdrawn ATP250 Lyon tournament due to a leg injury)
7. Fils 3,325
8. Meddy 3,220 ( in QFs Shanghai)
9. de Minaur 2,880

10.Djokovic 2,840
11.Jodar 2,709 ( in QFs Shanghai), if Jodar wins tomorrow and adds 200 pts, he's mathematically place inside the Top 9 ( with Sinners withdrawal) for the finals
 

MargaretMcAleer

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Medvedev is in a great position to make Turin now after his QF win over Paul

4. Cobolli 3,540
5 Meddy 3,420 ( Shanghai SF)
6. Tiafoe 3,380
7. Fils 3,325
8. Jodar 2,909 ( Shanghai SF)

9. de Minaur 2,880
10. Djokovic 2,850 ( Djokovic has accepted a wild card into ATP 500 Swiss Indoors )
11. Paul 2,585
12. Fritz 2,530
13. Mensik 2,495
 

El Dude

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Jodar vs. Fokina...that's about as ideal an outcome for the final, at least from my end. We're guaranteed a new Masters winner and either it is stud youngster or an underachiever who seems to be finally breaking out.
 
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Jelenafan

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My bold prediction: A spanish player will win the Shanghai Open !! ; )

Congrats to both Jodar & Davidovich, the Spanish Armada has proven formidable.
 

El Dude

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Also, it will be the first big event final for Jodar, but second for Fokina. Jodar previously reached the SF in Montreal, losing to Brandon Nakashima. ADF reached the Monte-Carlo final way back in 2022, losing to Sissypants.
 
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MargaretMcAleer

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Jodar vs. Fokina...that's about as ideal an outcome for the final, at least from my end. We're guaranteed a new Masters winner and either it is stud youngster or an underachiever who seems to be finally breaking out.
Well you got your wish a new Masters winner, I know Moxie would be soo proud of Foki, who appears to have got the monkey of his back finally winning a ATP title, he currently has 2 and he could win the biggest title of his career a Masters 1000 title
 
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MargaretMcAleer

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BTW Zverev presently has not won a Masters 1000 title since Paris Masters in 2024 where he defeated Humbert in the final
 

MargaretMcAleer

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Race to the ATP Finals,

4. Cobolli 3,540
5. Meddy 3,420
6. Tiafoe 3,380
7. Fils 3,325
8. Jodar 3,159 ( finalist in Shanghai Masters, more points can be added, Jodar can jump to 5 if he wins the title)

9. de Minaur 2,880
10.Djokovic 2,840
11.Paul 2,585
 
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El Dude

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BTW Zverev presently has not won a Masters 1000 title since Paris Masters in 2024 where he defeated Humbert in the final
He could finish this year with the dubious honor of the only two-Slam season with no other titles. The closest one would be Newcombe in 1973 when he won just two 250-equivalents. Nadal in 2022 won a 500 and a 250. Even Alcaraz in 2024 only won a Masters, a 500, and a 250.

That said, Zverev's 2026 season is better than Newcombe in '73, and probably several other two-Slam years. He's gone deep in every Slam and a lot of other events.

By my still-in-progress "Top 100 Seasons" formula, the two-Slam seasons are ranked in this order (meaning, ignoring seasons with 0-1 and 3-4):

  1. McEnroe 1984
  2. Borg 1979
  3. Nadal 2013
  4. Federer 2005
  5. Lendl 1986
  6. Sinner 2024
  7. Nadal 2008
  8. Borg 1980
  9. Sampras 1994
  10. Lendl 1987
  11. Alcaraz 2025
  12. McEnroe 1981
  13. Djokovic 2016
  14. Borg 1978
  15. Sinner 2025
  16. Vilas 1977
  17. Federer 2017
  18. Sampras 1997
  19. Nadal 2017
  20. Sampras 1993
  21. Federer 2009
  22. Sampras 1995
  23. Agassi 1999
  24. Courier 1992
  25. Becker 1989
  26. Djokovic 2019
  27. Connors 1982
  28. Djokovic 2018
  29. Alcaraz 2024
  30. Zverev 2026
  31. Nadal 2022
  32. Newcombe 1973
Again, I'm still dabbling with the formula, but I think Zverev's placement is about right, regardless. He can probably move up some spots with a strong finish - winning Paris and/or the Tour Finals.
 
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MargaretMcAleer

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He could finish this year with the dubious honor of the only two-Slam season with no other titles. The closest one would be Newcombe in 1973 when he won just two 250-equivalents. Nadal in 2022 won a 500 and a 250. Even Alcaraz in 2024 only won a Masters, a 500, and a 250.

That said, Zverev's 2026 season is better than Newcombe in '73, and probably several other two-Slam years. He's gone deep in every Slam and a lot of other events.

By my still-in-progress "Top 100 Seasons" formula, the two-Slam seasons are ranked in this order (meaning, ignoring seasons with 0-1 and 3-4):

  1. McEnroe 1984
  2. Borg 1979
  3. Nadal 2013
  4. Federer 2005
  5. Lendl 1986
  6. Sinner 2024
  7. Nadal 2008
  8. Borg 1980
  9. Sampras 1994
  10. Lendl 1987
  11. Alcaraz 2025
  12. McEnroe 1981
  13. Djokovic 2016
  14. Borg 1978
  15. Sinner 2025
  16. Vilas 1977
  17. Federer 2017
  18. Sampras 1997
  19. Nadal 2017
  20. Sampras 1993
  21. Federer 2009
  22. Sampras 1995
  23. Agassi 1999
  24. Courier 1992
  25. Becker 1989
  26. Djokovic 2019
  27. Connors 1982
  28. Djokovic 2018
  29. Alcaraz 2024
  30. Zverev 2026
  31. Nadal 2022
  32. Newcombe 1973
Again, I'm still dabbling with the formula, but I think Zverev's placement is about right, regardless. He can probably move up some spots with a strong finish - winning Paris and/or the Tour Finals.
Lets see if he can win Paris or the Tour final this year. If he finishes the season No 1, wouldnt he set a new record for the fewest titles won by a year No 1?
 

Fiero425

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Jodar vs. Fokina...that's about as ideal an outcome for the final, at least from my end. We're guaranteed a new Masters winner and either it is stud youngster or an underachiever who seems to be finally breaking out.
IMO, it's really to be expected! Back in the day, the end of the season always resulted in unforeseen players winning Big events in the Fall/Winter! I can still recall a doubles' specialist in Jack Sock winning in Paris, then getting to the YEC Semi back in 2017! Even w/ the Big 3, the upsets did occur; esp. w/ Novak going down to players like Khachanov & Rune in Paris in the final! Seems like the norm has returned! :astonished-face::yawningface::fearful-face::face-with-hand-over-mouth:
 

El Dude

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Lets see if he can win Paris or the Tour final this year. If he finishes the season No 1, wouldnt he set a new record for the fewest titles won by a year No 1?

Off the top of my head, yes. Sampras had only 4 titles in '98, and only one big one (a Slam). Federer had 4 titles in 2009, but all big events. Novak had 4 titles in 2018 and 2020, but the latter was shortened. Nadal also had 4 in 2019. Other weakish #1 seasons--McEnroe in 1982, Alcaraz in 2022, Kuerten and Hewitt, etc--all had 5-6 titles.

The weaker #1 seasons seem to be 4-5 titles, so even if Zverev wins another title, it will be the fewest.

Curious historical note: Connors in 1975 had nine titles, but all ATP 250 equivalents. Imagine someone finishing #1 in today's game and not winning anything above a 250.
 

El Dude

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IMO, it's really to be expected! Back in the day, the end of the season always resulted in unforeseen players winning Big events in the Fall/Winter! I can still recall a doubles' specialist in Jack Sock winning in Paris, then getting to the YEC Semi back in 2017! Even w/ the Big 3, the upsets did occur; esp. w/ Novak going down to players like Khachanov & Rune in Paris in the final! Seems like the norm has returned! :astonished-face::yawningface::fearful-face::face-with-hand-over-mouth:
Well remember, the Masters events starting opening up from Big Four dominance in 2017. But as you say, even before that, in the height of the Big Four Era, the stray Masters wins tended to happen later in the year. If we count the Fedal Era, non-Big Four Masters went to:

2005 (Fedal Era begins): Paris - Berdych
2006: Hamburg - Robredo, Cincy - Roddick, Paris - Davydenko
2007 (Djokovic's first big titles): Madrid & Paris - Nalbandian
2008 (Murray's first big titles): Miami - Davydenko, Paris - Tsonga
2009: Shanghai - Davydenko
2010: IW - Ljubicic, Miami - Roddick, Paris - Soderling
2011: All Big Four
2012: Paris - Ferrer
2013: All Big Four
2014: MC - Wawrinka, Canada - Tsonga
2015: All Big Four
2016: Cincy - Cilic
2017: Rome & Canada - Zverev, CIncy - Dimitrov, Paris - Sock

etc.

So it really broke up in 2017, but as you say, Paris in particular was often won by someone other than the Big Four (or super-elite). TO put it another way, of the in the 12 years of 2005-2016, there were:

108 Masters events.
92 won by the Big Four
16 by other players, 6 of them Paris, and 8 of them after US Open (Paris/Madrid/Shanghai).

Here are the number of Big Events won by the Big Four, by year from Roger's first in 2002 to Novak's last (so far) in 2024 (bold is all big titles):

1, 2, 7, 11, 11, 12, 14, 11, 11, 14, 14, 14, 10, 13, 13, 9, 9, 9, 4 (of 7), 5, 5, 6, 1, 0

That's a lot of big titles! The Big Four collectively won at least half of every big title in each year from 2004 to 2020, and at least 10 in every year from 2005 to 2016. The collective peak is obviously 2011-13, when they won all but one big event - Paris by Ferrer in 2012.
 
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