Pre-gaming the French Open

[El Dude]

I think there's a couple levels of "openness" in terms of how up for grabs a Slam is. It isn't on the same level as a Masters title, which are being tossed around so we're getting guys like Coric, Carreno Busta, and Popyrin winning them over the last few years. These are guys that would have capped at ATP 500s 10+ years ago. I mean, Kei Nishikori was a much better player than those guys and he never won a Masters. Poor Kei's four Masters finals were two against Novak, two against Rafa. I'd say Monfils, Gasquet, Raonic, and maybe one or two others from the Big Four era were better players than some of the Masters winners now.

Anyhow, I could see someone like Cerundolo winning a Masters. I think chances are against him, but it wouldn't surprise me. But it would greatly surprise me if he won a Slam. Slams still require a certain peak level ability - at least in this era. While it has opened up since 2023 or so, it is still not nearly as open as, say, the late 90s to early 00s, or really RG from Lendl and WIlander's decline to Rafa's emergence. The Masters might be that open (Pavel? Portas?), but not the Slams.

 

[Moxie]

I think there's a couple levels of "openness" in terms of how up for grabs a Slam is. It isn't on the same level as a Masters title, which are being tossed around so we're getting guys like Coric, Carreno Busta, and Popyrin winning them over the last few years. These are guys that would have capped at ATP 500s 10+ years ago. I mean, Kei Nishikori was a much better player than those guys and he never won a Masters. Poor Kei's four Masters finals were two against Novak, two against Rafa. I'd say Monfils, Gasquet, Raonic, and maybe one or two others from the Big Four era were better players than some of the Masters winners now.

Anyhow, I could see someone like Cerundolo winning a Masters. I think chances are against him, but it wouldn't surprise me. But it would greatly surprise me if he won a Slam. Slams still require a certain peak level ability - at least in this era. While it has opened up since 2023 or so, it is still not nearly as open as, say, the late 90s to early 00s, or really RG from Lendl and WIlander's decline to Rafa's emergence. The Masters might be that open (Pavel? Portas?), but not the Slams.

I think "openness" in terms of a Major is kind of relative. Look at your own choices for 3-5 most likely: Zverev, Draper, and Ruud. None of them has won a Major, though 2 have made finals. The only repeat French Open winners available are Alcaraz and Djokovic, and Djokovic is looking like a long-shot, compared to his stature. If he even plays. Alcaraz and Sinner have a least small question marks next to their names. They're considered the favorites by a LOT. So what if neither makes the final? This is also why I'm interested in potential spoilers. I consider Cerundolo to be one, and Tsitsipas's ranking is low enough that he'll be floating a bit. Fonseca is a potential spoiler. Maybe first round, anyway. (Yes, I think he needs to get used to the tour. Plus, he gets a lot of attention for a newbie. It's a lot to take on board.) I don't really think the winner will be a complete surprise, but there is more opportunity out there than usual.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I thought it would be a given that Stan Wawrinka the 2015 RG champion would be granted a wild card at this years RG? well not to be, Wawrinka's name is on the mens singles qualifying entry list for Roland Garros this year, quite frankly I find that disrespectful!
At present FTF has not posted its wild cards for 2025, maybe a tad early

 

[Moxie]

I thought it would be a given that Stan Wawrinka the 2015 RG champion would be granted a wild card at this years RG? well not to be, Wawrinka's name is on the mens singles qualifying entry list for Roland Garros this year, quite frankly I find that disrespectful!
At present FTF has not posted its wild cards for 2025, maybe a tad early

Maybe they can still give it? I agree they just should.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Maybe they can still give it? I agree they just should.

Thinking about it more Moxie, maybe Stan is just covering himself, entering the qualifying, as I posted it is a tad too early for the ITF to give out their wild cards, I still expect Wawrinka to receive one
The USTA has awarded their wild cards to Emilo Nava and Iva Jovic both won the USTA Roland Garros Wild Card Challenge

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Novak Djokovic to play ATP250 Geneva before Roland Garros, he already did so last year, before reaching the SFs in Paris

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think there's a couple levels of "openness" in terms of how up for grabs a Slam is. It isn't on the same level as a Masters title, which are being tossed around so we're getting guys like Coric, Carreno Busta, and Popyrin winning them over the last few years. These are guys that would have capped at ATP 500s 10+ years ago. I mean, Kei Nishikori was a much better player than those guys and he never won a Masters. Poor Kei's four Masters finals were two against Novak, two against Rafa. I'd say Monfils, Gasquet, Raonic, and maybe one or two others from the Big Four era were better players than some of the Masters winners now.

Anyhow, I could see someone like Cerundolo winning a Masters. I think chances are against him, but it wouldn't surprise me. But it would greatly surprise me if he won a Slam. Slams still require a certain peak level ability - at least in this era. While it has opened up since 2023 or so, it is still not nearly as open as, say, the late 90s to early 00s, or really RG from Lendl and WIlander's decline to Rafa's emergence. The Masters might be that open (Pavel? Portas?), but not the Slams.

Kei was an unfortunate victim of injuries as well as timing. He was born in 1989, and he was overshadowed by a great cohort of players born in 1985-1988. In my opinion, he was, at his best, better than any players born in 1990-2000. If Kei was born in 1983 or 1984, he may have snuck out early slams before the likes of Rafa and Novak took over and dominated (like Lleyton Hewitt and Marat Safin did before Roger dominated), provided Kei stayed healthy.

 

[Fiero425]

IDK if anyone's heard, but Novak Djokovic has accepted a Wild Card into Geneva Open before the French Open begins! Looking for 100th Title!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

IDK if anyone's heard, but Novak Djokovic has accepted a Wild Card into Geneva Open before the French Open begins! Looking for 100th Title!

I posted that news late yesterday, ! if you cared to read my posts! he accepted a wild card
Trying to win his 100th title in a ATP250 event
Maybe he saw the player list for ATP500 Hamburg and decided that was a tad hard
Lets face it he needs all the match play on clay he can get, going out in 1st rounds in earlier tournaments on clay, is not the ideal preparation for RG

 

[El Dude]

Kei was an unfortunate victim of injuries as well as timing. He was born in 1989, and he was overshadowed by a great cohort of players born in 1985-1988. In my opinion, he was, at his best, better than any players born in 1990-2000. If Kei was born in 1983 or 1984, he may have snuck out early slams before the likes of Rafa and Novak took over and dominated (like Lleyton Hewitt and Marat Safin did before Roger dominated), provided Kei stayed healthy.

I agree on your general take and in a way see him as similar as David Ferrer in terms of the misfortune of his career timing, though I can't agree that Kei was better than Thiem, Medvedev or even Zverev. But I'd probably put him slightly ahead of Dimitrov, Raonic, Rublev, Tsitsipas, etc. It is hard to say, though, and at least worthy of debate. Elo likes him better than Thiem, but not quite as much as DM and AZ - but very close. Either way, I do think he's almost certainly the best player of the Open Era never to win a big title.

 

[Fiero425]

I agree on your general take and in a way see him as similar as David Ferrer in terms of the misfortune of his career timing, though I can't agree that Kei was better than Thiem, Medvedev or even Zverev. But I'd probably put him slightly ahead of Dimitrov, Raonic, Rublev, Tsitsipas, etc. It is hard to say, though, and at least worthy of debate. Elo likes him better than Thiem, but not quite as much as DM and AZ - but very close. Either way, I do think he's almost certainly the best player of the Open Era never to win a big title.

Who knows, I could just be high, but IMO, from what I remember of Kei, he had more ability than all these other guys! His problem was hitting the scene at the height of the Big 3's powers! His body betrayed him of course, but his raw ability & versatile game were quite impressive! He actually defeated Nadal on his precious clay in Spain of all places, then took Bronze medal over Rafa at the 2016 Olympics in Rio!

 

[Moxie]

Who knows, I could just be high, but IMO, from what I remember of Kei, he had more ability than all these other guys! His problem was hitting the scene at the height of the Big 3's powers! His body betrayed him of course, but his raw ability & versatile game were quite impressive! He actually defeated Nadal on his precious clay in Spain of all places, then took Bronze medal over Rafa at the 2016 Olympics in Rio!

You are high...Nishikori didn't beat Nadal on clay. You're remembering the 2014 Madrid final where Kei bossed Rafa for a set and a half, then got injured. He retired 0-3 down in the final. That was too bad. It's interesting that you remember Kei so much in the context of your hatred of Rafa. I wouldn't think of Rafa so much in terms of Kei's career. (The H2H is 12-2 Nadal.) He had a better record v. Roger (3-8.) Mostly he's remembered as a talented player who was too often injured. He's well-liked, and we still root for him, at least I do. I don't think he would have been a powerhouse in his era, but he could have had a much better career, if not for injury.

 

[Moxie]

I posted that news late yesterday, ! if you cared to read my posts! he accepted a wild card
Trying to win his 100th title in a ATP250 event
Maybe he saw the player list for ATP500 Hamburg and decided that was a tad hard
Lets face it he needs all the match play on clay he can get, going out in 1st rounds in earlier tournaments on clay, is not the ideal preparation for RG

Oh, SNAP! Nice one, Margaret. As you pointed out above, Novak played Geneva last year, and made the finals of RG. However, that was last year, which wasn't that great, and this year has been rather more dismal. Whatever confidence boost he gets from some possible wins in Geneva could help, but he'll also need help from the draw gods at RG, if you ask me. This is where the spoilers and dangerous floaters come in. He'll be in the top 8 seeds at RG, but he may not avoid all of the speed bumps.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Oh, SNAP! Nice one, Margaret. As you pointed out above, Novak played Geneva last year, and made the finals of RG. However, that was last year, which wasn't that great, and this year has been rather more dismal. Whatever confidence boost he gets from some possible wins in Geneva could help, but he'll also need help from the draw gods at RG, if you ask me. This is where the spoilers and dangerous floaters come in. He'll be in the top 8 seeds at RG, but he may not avoid all of the speed bumps.

I cant compare what Novak did last year, I am going on current form and it has been dismal, unless there is a complete reversal of form, which quite frankly I cant see possible, at this stage of the clay season, he still isnt a strong contender in my opinion to win the title at RG this year

 

[mrzz]

Oh, SNAP! Nice one, Margaret. As you pointed out above, Novak played Geneva last year, and made the finals of RG. However, that was last year, which wasn't that great, and this year has been rather more dismal. Whatever confidence boost he gets from some possible wins in Geneva could help, but he'll also need help from the draw gods at RG, if you ask me. This is where the spoilers and dangerous floaters come in. He'll be in the top 8 seeds at RG, but he may not avoid all of the speed bumps.

The risk and reward factor at Geneva is complicated, as a one and out campaign there is a possibility as well.

 

[Moxie]

The risk and reward factor at Geneva is complicated, as a one and out campaign there is a possibility as well.

True, and very possible. However, unless Djokovic is going to just quit and retire, he's got to back himself at some point. Clearly, he has decided that Rome was maybe too public for getting some more clay under his feet ahead of the French, but that he needs some more, thus Geneva. Whatever happens in Geneva, he can treat like a practice session, and hope for a good draw and time to play himself into shape in Paris. He's also going to have to hope that the best of 5 format still favors him over most players, because, with age, that can be a double-edged sword, too.

 

[Moxie]

I meant to add re: Geneva, that Ruud is entered, and, no matter how he does in Rome, I think he needs to skip Geneva and rest up for RG. He's got a solid chance at the title, and he doesn't need practice as much as rest. Fritz, on the other hand, who just lost to Marcos Giron in straights, needs all the practice on clay he can get. And no one believes he's win RG, so all he's going to do is collect as many points and as much money as possible, and let his GF get good photos for her Insta.

 

[don_fabio]

Novak made only QF or RG last year and retired to Ruud. He can practice all he wants, but RG is out of bounds for him. I believe Sinner would beat him in his first match if they met right now in Rome, regardless of the 3 month ban.

Ruud better rest for RG, that would be a wise decision. I think he will.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I meant to add re: Geneva, that Ruud is entered, and, no matter how he does in Rome, I think he needs to skip Geneva and rest up for RG. He's got a solid chance at the title, and he doesn't need practice as much as rest. Fritz, on the other hand, who just lost to Marcos Giron in straights, needs all the practice on clay he can get. And no one believes he's win RG, so all he's going to do is collect as many points and as much money as possible, and let his GF get good photos for her Insta.

Tomas Machac has also entered Geneva, on his day he can beat a top player,

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

BTW just saw a video practice session of Djokovic with strapping around his knee, probably more of a pre cautionary than anything, ( back to watching Janniks match)