Nadal's gonna be world #1 again!

[Kieran]

Remember this? I never lost faith, funny enough.

Let's take names:

1. Kieran

 

[Asmodeus]

This is hard to say since he actually dropped a position after winning a slam. Has that ever happened before?

I guess the only way he can be #1 again is if he plays a full season and goes fairly deep at the big ones.

 

[huntingyou]

If he wins Wimbledon, (good chance)...then by the time the fall season comes around; he will be #1. He already has 2000 points lead on Novak......winning SW19 would give him almost a 3K point advantage (assuming Novak reach final).

Novak will not dominate fall season HC; Murray can split with him in addition to the occasional upset to the Berdych and Delpo of the world.

So, this thread it's a little early but what are good predictions if you don't make them early?

This is assuming good health of course.

 

[DarthFed]

Let's see Rafa's draw in Wimbledon before jumping to conclusions. Rafa has always been garbage the 1st week of Wimbledon when conditions are fast and slick. Rafa only starts playing well when the courts get worn down and conditions get a lot heavier.

 

[Kieran]

If he wins Wimbledon, (good chance)...then by the time the fall season comes around; he will be #1. He already has 2000 points lead on Novak......winning SW19 would give him almost a 3K point advantage (assuming Novak reach final).

Novak will not dominate fall season HC; Murray can split with him in addition to the occasional upset to the Berdych and Delpo of the world.

So, this thread it's a little early but what are good predictions if you don't make them early?

This is assuming good health of course.

So...

2. huntingyou?

---

Let's see Rafa's draw in Wimbledon before jumping to conclusions. Rafa has always been garbage the 1st week of Wimbledon when conditions are fast and slick. Rafa only starts playing well when the courts get worn down and conditions get a lot heavier.

He's got nothing to defend between now and next valentine's Day. He couls skip Wimbledon and not lose any ranking points. But I agree, he could be vulnerable in the first week, especially after skipping Halle, he goes in with no warm-up and after a huge schedule since his return.

But if he gets through the early rounds, you wouldn't bet against him, would you?

The only caveat I have against Nadal someday returning to the top is his knees.

That's the only caveat...

 

[huntingyou]

Let's see Rafa's draw in Wimbledon before jumping to conclusions. Rafa has always been garbage the 1st week of Wimbledon when conditions are fast and slick. Rafa only starts playing well when the courts get worn down and conditions get a lot heavier.

don't over do it mate!

Rafa reached FIVE CONSECUTIVE Wimbledon finals; you can't be garbage the first week and be in the final 5 times.

Yes, he is more vulnerable but it has nothing to do with the speed and slickness of the grass but his inability to adjust his return quickly enough. That's Rafa's biggest weakness against the field during the first week. I have seen Rafa playing amazing tennis in the first week as well.

So, conditions aside.....if Rafa "survive" the first three matches (something he has done 5 times).....I like his chances WINNING the whole thing.

 

[Riotbeard]

Settle down Kieran (and welcome back buddy)! Novak barely lost on Rafa absolutely best surface. We'll see what happens at wimbledon, but it is definitely between him and Novak.

 

[huntingyou]

Kieran,

Pencil me in. If he Novak has a better Wimbledon than him.....then the #1 ranking will have to wait until AO 2014 as the most likely period for him to regain it.

Also, going back to Rafa's first week woes at Wimbledon; the guy has been unlucky with drawing big guys with big serves. He had Robin, Hases, Robin, Rosol and other names I can't remember. Also Fish if I recall correctly. When Rafa will get montanes, Andujar, nikoshori and the monacos of the world? He is due for a kind first week.

---

Settle down Kieran (and welcome back buddy)! Novak barely lost on Rafa absolutely best surface. We'll see what happens at wimbledon, but it is definitely between him and Novak.

I rank Murray higher than Novak although Novak would be a tougher out for Rafa.

I would love a final for sure between these two. Let's hope the draw pairs them opposite with Roger in Rafa's side.

 

[DarthFed]

Let's see Rafa's draw in Wimbledon before jumping to conclusions. Rafa has always been garbage the 1st week of Wimbledon when conditions are fast and slick. Rafa only starts playing well when the courts get worn down and conditions get a lot heavier.

don't over do it mate!

Rafa reached FIVE CONSECUTIVE Wimbledon finals; you can't be garbage the first week and be in the final 5 times.

Yes, he is more vulnerable but it has nothing to do with the speed and slickness of the grass but his inability to adjust his return quickly enough. That's Rafa's biggest weakness against the field during the first week. I have seen Rafa playing amazing tennis in the first week as well.

So, conditions aside.....if Rafa "survive" the first three matches (something he has done 5 times).....I like his chances WINNING the whole thing.

Naturally he, like the other top seeds, are playing nobodies the 1st week of the tournament. He can play at a mediocre level and still be the favorite to beat tweedle dee, tweedle dum, and their slighlty better brother in the 3rd round.

And you are smarter than this, the bounce is slower and higher bouncing as the tournament goes on. We all know that plays more to his favor than a quicker lower bounce. If he survives the 1st week he has a very good chance but I wouldn't sleep on Murray this year. And if it's Rafa-Nole he is the underdog. But Nole could lose early on grass and Roger still could be a threat to Novak if they meet in the semis (but Roger isn't getting there if he plays any decent big hitter in the QF).

 

[Kieran]

Settle down Kieran (and welcome back buddy)! Novak barely lost on Rafa absolutely best surface. We'll see what happens at wimbledon, but it is definitely between him and Novak.

Rafa missed seven months and played his first five set matches in almost a year. He grew exponentially in Paris. Nole has been preparing for this one since last year. Rafa could never be certain he'd regain this level again. His win here is huge and he sent a signal to the rest.

So, riotbeard 3? Go on, trust me on it!

 

[huntingyou]

Let's see Rafa's draw in Wimbledon before jumping to conclusions. Rafa has always been garbage the 1st week of Wimbledon when conditions are fast and slick. Rafa only starts playing well when the courts get worn down and conditions get a lot heavier.

don't over do it mate!

Rafa reached FIVE CONSECUTIVE Wimbledon finals; you can't be garbage the first week and be in the final 5 times.

Yes, he is more vulnerable but it has nothing to do with the speed and slickness of the grass but his inability to adjust his return quickly enough. That's Rafa's biggest weakness against the field during the first week. I have seen Rafa playing amazing tennis in the first week as well.

So, conditions aside.....if Rafa "survive" the first three matches (something he has done 5 times).....I like his chances WINNING the whole thing.

Naturally he, like the other top seeds, are playing nobodies the 1st week of the tournament. He can play at a mediocre level and still be the favorite to beat tweedle dee, tweedle dum, and their slighlty better brother in the 3rd round.

And you are smarter than this, the bounce is slower and higher bouncing as the tournament goes on. We all know that plays more to his favor than a quicker lower bounce. If he survives the 1st week he has a very good chance but I wouldn't sleep on Murray this year. And if it's Rafa-Nole he is the underdog. But Nole could lose early on grass and Roger still could be a threat to Novak if they meet in the semis (but Roger isn't getting there if he plays any decent big hitter in the QF).

I agree on Murray, disagree on Novak.

Rafa is no underdog to Novak on grass. The 2011 final was Rafa's worst mental breakdown in a GS match. Worse than 2007 final, at least the knee was bothering him plus Federer was...well Federer in the 5 set.

Novak is no Roger on grass and Rafa will not be pushing forehands and shaking down at 4-5 score.

Like I said before RG; we'll see what happens but if Novak it's going to beat Rafa on grass.....he will beat Rafa firing at full capacity.

 

[Kieran]

Totally agree, Hunting. Novak-2011 got under Rafa's skin, but he's been held up as some sort of standard since then - he's gotten under everybody elses skin too!

I think if they meet at Wimbo, this time it ain't going to five...

 

[DarthFed]

Let's see Rafa's draw in Wimbledon before jumping to conclusions. Rafa has always been garbage the 1st week of Wimbledon when conditions are fast and slick. Rafa only starts playing well when the courts get worn down and conditions get a lot heavier.

don't over do it mate!

Rafa reached FIVE CONSECUTIVE Wimbledon finals; you can't be garbage the first week and be in the final 5 times.

Yes, he is more vulnerable but it has nothing to do with the speed and slickness of the grass but his inability to adjust his return quickly enough. That's Rafa's biggest weakness against the field during the first week. I have seen Rafa playing amazing tennis in the first week as well.

So, conditions aside.....if Rafa "survive" the first three matches (something he has done 5 times).....I like his chances WINNING the whole thing.

Naturally he, like the other top seeds, are playing nobodies the 1st week of the tournament. He can play at a mediocre level and still be the favorite to beat tweedle dee, tweedle dum, and their slighlty better brother in the 3rd round.

And you are smarter than this, the bounce is slower and higher bouncing as the tournament goes on. We all know that plays more to his favor than a quicker lower bounce. If he survives the 1st week he has a very good chance but I wouldn't sleep on Murray this year. And if it's Rafa-Nole he is the underdog. But Nole could lose early on grass and Roger still could be a threat to Novak if they meet in the semis (but Roger isn't getting there if he plays any decent big hitter in the QF).

I agree on Murray, disagree on Novak.

Rafa is no underdog to Novak on grass. The 2011 final was Rafa's worst mental breakdown in a GS match. Worse than 2007 final, at least the knee was bothering him plus Federer was...well Federer in the 5 set.

Novak is no Roger on grass and Rafa will not be pushing forehands and shaking down at 4-5 score.

Like I said before RG; we'll see what happens but if Novak it's going to beat Rafa on grass.....he will beat Rafa firing at full capacity.

Novak isn't Roger on grass, but matchup wise vs. Nadal he is a hell of a lot tougher than Roger was. Novak is not Roger's ROS and lack of good movement at 2008 Wimbledon. I told you at RG Nole has to play very clean if he was going to win because he will always be bossing Rafa around the court, regardless of the bounce. Obviously he was very up and down during the match and you can't beat Nadal on clay like that. It was a miracle it became competitive.

Nole does not have to play as clean on grass because Rafa will not get every ball back in play like he does on clay. 2011 final was one of the very best matches Rafa has served in his career. Nole was that good returning and as expected he won the baseline war. I don't see that changing here.

 

[huntingyou]

Totally agree, Hunting. Novak-2011 got under Rafa's skin, but he's been held up as some sort of standard since then - he's gotten under everybody elses skin too!

I think if they meet at Wimbo, this time it ain't going to five...

There is no doubt grass is Novak's weakest surface and some of his superiority against the field in the movement and ROS department get's nullify.

I do feel he is capable of winning the whole thing, I will not underestimate him ever again. But if he is going to accomplish such feat over Rafa (assuming a match between these two); it won't happen on Rafa's poor play and fragile mind.

Watch the replay, I have never seem Rafa's forehand so pedestrian in a GS final. He was spinning the ball like it was clay and to top it off, his indecision and inability to close the net when the chance presented itself was obvious throughout the match.

 

[Kieran]

Totally agree, Hunting. Novak-2011 got under Rafa's skin, but he's been held up as some sort of standard since then - he's gotten under everybody elses skin too!

I think if they meet at Wimbo, this time it ain't going to five...

There is no doubt grass is Novak's weakest surface and some of his superiority against the field in the movement and ROS department get's nullify.

I do feel he is capable of winning the whole thing, I will not underestimate him ever again. But if he is going to accomplish such feat over Rafa (assuming a match between these two); it won't happen on Rafa's poor play and fragile mind.

Watch the replay, I have never seem Rafa's forehand so pedestrian in a GS final. He was spinning the ball like it was clay and to top it off, his indecision and inability to close the net when the chance presented itself was obvious throughout the match.

He was rattled. And rightly so, Nole had gotten to him. Nole hasn't been in his skull for a long time now. He's beaten them demons! If he faces Nole anywhere, he won't lose for being timid...

 

[huntingyou]

Nole does not have to play as clean on grass because Rafa will not get every ball back in play like he does on clay. 2011 final was one of the very best matches Rafa has served in his career. Nole was that good returning and as expected he won the baseline war. I don't see that changing here.

You think too much of match-ups while I have told you all along it's not as significant in the larger scheme of things. We are talking GS Final here. If match-ups were that important, Rafa wouldn't lead both Novak and Murray in that department. Rafa ain't Roger; he will not hide behind the the math-up issue and let Novak run away with it.

You bet Novak has to play clean to beat Rafa in a GS final anywhere.....especially grass.

What RG accomplished for Rafa was the final cleansing of Novak's residence in his head. The guy blew the 4 set, was down a break and finally broke out of his shell and said this is mine.

For the record, Nadal only served well in the 1st and 3rd set in that match. Do you remember how pathetic Rafa lost that first set? His sad puppy face was disgusting.

And no, Novak won't be bossing Rafa on grass behind the baseline......his forehand came out to play if you noticed last Friday and if he brings that forehand to an hypothetical match with Novak......there is only one winner.

 

[DarthFed]

Nole does not have to play as clean on grass because Rafa will not get every ball back in play like he does on clay. 2011 final was one of the very best matches Rafa has served in his career. Nole was that good returning and as expected he won the baseline war. I don't see that changing here.

You think too much of match-ups while I have told you all along it's not as significant in the larger scheme of things. We are talking GS Final here. If match-ups were that important, Rafa wouldn't lead both Novak and Murray in that department. Rafa ain't Roger; he will not hide behind the the math-up issue and let Novak run away with it.

You bet Novak has to play clean to beat Rafa in a GS final anywhere.....especially grass.

What RG accomplished for Rafa was the final cleansing of Novak's residence in his head. The guy blew the 4 set, was down a break and finally broke out of his shell and said this is mine.

For the record, Nadal only served well in the 1st and 3rd set in that match. Do you remember how pathetic Rafa lost that first set? His sad puppy face was disgusting.

And no, Novak won't be bossing Rafa on grass behind the baseline......his forehand came out to play if you noticed last Friday and if he brings that forehand to an hypothetical match with Novak......there is only one winner.

We shall see And matchups aren't important? Get real here. Novak does not have the weak one handed backhand which has made Roger an easy out for Rafa over the years. And I wouldn't expect the mental collapse from Nole like we saw with Roger in 2008 for the majority of 5 sets.

 

[huntingyou]

We shall see And matchups aren't important? Get real here. Novak does not have the weak one handed backhand which has made Roger an easy out for Rafa over the years. And I wouldn't expect the mental collapse from Nole like we saw with Roger in 2008 for the majority of 5 sets.

Explain:

20-10
20-15
13-5

I see you keep taking digs at that 2008 final. I will ignore it but I will say one thing. Rafa was the best player in that match and IF there was a mental collapse; it was Rafa's failure to close the door in 3.

Finally, Roger is not an easy out for Rafa...never was, even on clay. And why does Roger has perfect record against Rafa indoors? Obviously surface and TIMING matters and I believe there is no doubt grass just after RG in mid July favors Rafa over Novak. Especially when Rafa came up the victor in their latest BIG match.

but we'll see

 

[DarthFed]

We shall see And matchups aren't important? Get real here. Novak does not have the weak one handed backhand which has made Roger an easy out for Rafa over the years. And I wouldn't expect the mental collapse from Nole like we saw with Roger in 2008 for the majority of 5 sets.

Explain:

20-10
20-15
13-5

I see you keep taking digs at that 2008 final. I will ignore it but I will say one thing. Rafa was the best player in that match and IF there was a mental collapse; it was Rafa's failure to close the door in 3.

Finally, Roger is not an easy out for Rafa...never was, even on clay. And why does Roger has perfect record against Rafa indoors? Obviously surface and TIMING matters and I believe there is no doubt grass just after RG in mid July favors Rafa over Novak. Especially when Rafa came up the victor in their latest BIG match.

but we'll see

20-15 is a lot more competitive than 20-10. And let's not forget that Nole did not become a truly great player until 2011. Murray is now just starting to be considered a great player in his own right.

Rafa came up the victor by a hair on his favorite surface playing in perfect conditions for him and that's with a very up and down match from Novak. Rafa's forehand isn't going to do as much damage to Nole on grass and he isn't going to be as successful tracking down shot after shot.

Roger is perfect indoors because the ball isn't going up to shoulder height. Naturally, Rafa is going to be at his mercy if the backhand isn't made to be a weakness.

Rafa's only collapse at Wimbledon was the 4th set tiebreak. Compare that to the disgraceful first 2 sets from Roger and that he was the first to collapse in the 5th despite having momentum.

 

[Kieran]

Darth, you've been overplaying your hand on that 2008 match. Roger was blessed to get to five, he wasn't dirt in the first two: he was outplayed. He couldn't do a thing about it.

Let's recap here:

1. Kieran
2. Huntingyou
3. ????