Early Roland Garros Chat

[Kieran]

The clay has begun, the battles are being joined, so why not cut to the real meat of the season: the French Open, which runs from May 29 - 11 June. Qualifying begins on the May 22.

The favourites are Novak, Rafa and anybody else after these two: a winner outside Rafa and Novak would be a surprise, some more so than others.

The questions being asked so far include:

Is Rafa back to near his best yet?

What's happening with Novak, and can he turn it around?

With Andy, same question applies as applies to Novak.

Will Switzerland have a contender?

Will a youngster make their mark?

And any other questions and matters relating to the event can be discussed here. Anybody know the latest odds, for instance? maybe we can track these as we go along?

 

[the AntiPusher]

The clay has begun, the battles are being joined, so why not cut to the real meat of the season: the French Open, which runs from May 29 - 11 June. Qualifying begins on the May 22.

The favourites are Novak, Rafa and anybody else after these two: a winner outside Rafa and Novak would be a surprise, some more so than others.

The questions being asked so far include:

Is Rafa back to near his best yet?

What's happening with Novak, and can he turn it around?

With Andy, same question applies as applies to Novak.

Will Switzerland have a contender?

Will a youngster make their mark?

And any other questions and matters relating to the event can be discussed here. Anybody know the latest odds, for instance? maybe we can track these as we go along?

No..Rafa is not at his best..He may get there.. Rafa has tweaked his game by coming forward, trying more drop shots and shorten some of his rallies. Andy and Novak are no where near their typical talent level but they still have a few weeks to get back ..same with Stan...Roger isn't gonna wear himself out at 36 to win RG when he will be the favorite to win Wimbledon again. I wouldn't be surprised if a youngster finally made their mark. It's been almost 13-14 years since the last one did:.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Odds are here:
https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/winner

bet365 currently have:

Nadal 6/4
Djokovic 5/2
Murray 4
Wawrinka 8
Federer 14

I think Nadal as favourite and Djokovic as second is right. Not sure about the order of Murray and Wawrinka - Stan's form this year has been better than Murray's, I would say, although both were disappointing in MC. And Stan has won the title before.

Given that we don't even know for sure whether Federer is playing, and the uncertainty surrounding his form on clay, it is probably right that he is at the bottom of the "big 5" at the moment. If Murray and Wawrinka keep being useless in the next clay tournaments, however, I might change my mind about that.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

No..Rafa is not at his best..He may get there.. Rafa has tweaked his game by coming forward, trying more drop shots and shorten some of his rallies. Andy and Novak are no where near their typical talent level but they still have a few weeks to get back ..same with Stan...Roger isn't gonna wear himself out at 36 to win RG when he will be the favorite to win Wimbledon again. I wouldn't be surprised if a youngster finally made their mark. It's been almost 13-14 years since the last one did:.

What is "his best"? The best he has ever been, surely not. The best he could be at the current stage in his career - maybe, maybe not?

He's not quite hit 2013 form, I would say, but that was four years ago. He's been in better form than 2014-2016, however, on current evidence. And that ought to be enough to make him the clear favourite for the RG title, at the very least unless Djokovic shows signs of suddenly returning to top form.

 

[El Dude]

^Pretty much this. Rafa has been at a high level all year. The difference now is he's on clay, feels more confident and comfortable, but I'm not sure he's playing at a higher level than he was earlier in the year - and that's OK, because 2017 Rafa on clay = best clay player in the world, especially with Novak floundering.

RG is Rafa's to lose. The only players that could possibly beat Rafa at RG this year are:

*Novak, if he returns to something close to 2015-early 2016 form. Seems unlikely, but is possible.
*Stanimal. Very unlikely, but if he gets in the mode then he can beat anyone.
*Some Young Guy breaking through. I just don't see it. The best young players on tour aren't great on clay - Kyrgios, Zverev. I suppose Kyrgios could get into one of his serving streaks and out-gun Rafa, but on clay Rafa might be able to handle it. Thiem maybe, but I'm not seeing a player that can beat an elite in a Slam.
*Roger. Gotta include him here. Yes, there's clay, but if he plays like he did earlier in the year, he'll be dangerous.

Andy? Kei? A clay specialist like Cuevas? Anyone else? It is hard to see.

 

[Fiero425]

Watching Rafa this morning, I definitely saw a more confident stomp around the court with focus, but who's his opponent today? This may be his last chance, so he's probably doing everything possible to maximize a potential run in Paris! We all need to get through 2 more Masters' events and too much could change! Players are brittle, more apathetic due to the sport swimming in money, and commitments off the court that has to be weighing on all players concerned! I don't think Roger will put up too much of a fight during this period; why put Wimbledon in jeopardy! I just don't know what to make of Nole and Andy! What will they be like trying to defend the final? I personally thought Nole missed Fedal & meeting Rafa could resurrect his mojo! - http://fiero4251.blogspot.com/2016/08/fan-page-novak-nole-djokovic.html -

 

[the AntiPusher]

No..Rafa is not at his best..He may get there.. Rafa has tweaked his game by coming forward, trying more drop shots and shorten some of his rallies. Andy and Novak are no where near their typical talent level but they still have a few weeks to get back ..same with Stan...Roger isn't gonna wear himself out at 36 to win RG when he will be the favorite to win Wimbledon again. I wouldn't be surprised if a youngster finally made their mark. It's been almost 13-14 years since the last one did:.

What is "his best"? The best he has ever been, surely not. The best he could be at the current stage in his career - maybe, maybe not?

He's not quite hit 2013 form, I would say, but that was four years ago. He's been in better form than 2014-2016, however, on current evidence. And that ought to be enough to make him the clear favourite for the RG title, at the very least unless Djokovic shows signs of suddenly returning to top form.

Rafa's best is the way he played against Monfils at MC , the level of aggression he played last week against Sasha Zverev..acrourse Mrzz and Dude he may not be Rafa of 2013 but he can play very aggressively that will put the type of pressure on his opponents..

 

[the AntiPusher]

Watching Rafa this morning, I definitely saw a more confident stomp around the court with focus, but who's his opponent today? This may be his last chance, so he's probably doing everything possible to maximize a potential run in Paris! We all need to get through 2 more Masters' events and too much could change! Players are brittle, more apathetic due to the sport swimming in money, and commitments off the court that has to be weighing on all players concerned! I don't think Roger will out up too much of a fight during this period; why put Wimbledon in jeopardy! I just don't know what to make of Nole and Andy! What will they be like trying to defend the final? I personally thought Nole missed Fedal & meeting Rafa could resurrect his mojo! - http://fiero4251.blogspot.com/2016/08/fan-page-novak-nole-djokovic.html -

Fiero.. I didn't see the match but if Rafa is playing aggressively..his only peers currently playing clay tournaments is Stan, Andy , and primary Djoker when they are in form

 

[Front242]

You forgot one guy and I think you know his backhand is no longer an issue. That makes that match up even on clay completely different. Imagine Roger hasn't been that impressed by what he's seen so far in clay season. I sure as hell haven't been. Very beatable.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You forgot one guy and I think you know his backhand is no longer an issue. That makes that match up even on clay completely different. Imagine Roger hasn't been that impressed by what he's seen so far in clay season. I sure as hell haven't been. Very beatable.

Wow, that would be fun if Fed beats up on Rafa in Terre Battue. :angel:

It would be even more fun when some Nadalite claims that Fed beat up on a decrepit Rafa. :lolz:

 

[mightyjeditribble]

I'd love to see Fed finally defeat Nadal at RG. Now, this year has taught me not to discount any possibility, but it would be a miracle. In 2014/2015, Fed played pretty well outside of clay, but he lost to Gulbis in 2014 R4, and to (an admittedly inspired) Wawrinka in straight sets in 2015. So Nadal's forehand is not his only problem on the surface, and just sorting out his backhand probably won't be enough.

What's more, we don't even know whether he can truly escape his backhand troubles against Nadal on clay, where the high bouncing topspin is the most deadly.

Too many unknowns though - which makes it exciting! Let's see what happens if they do meet, which I don't necessarily expect ...

 

[Kieran]

^Pretty much this. Rafa has been at a high level all year. The difference now is he's on clay, feels more confident and comfortable, but I'm not sure he's playing at a higher level than he was earlier in the year - and that's OK, because 2017 Rafa on clay = best clay player in the world, especially with Novak floundering.

RG is Rafa's to lose. The only players that could possibly beat Rafa at RG this year are:

*Novak, if he returns to something close to 2015-early 2016 form. Seems unlikely, but is possible.
*Stanimal. Very unlikely, but if he gets in the mode then he can beat anyone.
*Some Young Guy breaking through. I just don't see it. The best young players on tour aren't great on clay - Kyrgios, Zverev. I suppose Kyrgios could get into one of his serving streaks and out-gun Rafa, but on clay Rafa might be able to handle it. Thiem maybe, but I'm not seeing a player that can beat an elite in a Slam.
*Roger. Gotta include him here. Yes, there's clay, but if he plays like he did earlier in the year, he'll be dangerous.

Andy? Kei? A clay specialist like Cuevas? Anyone else? It is hard to see.

You forgot Sam Querry.

Until Rafa beats a big name and fist pumps away his demons, RG certainly is not his to lose... :nono

 

[mrzz]

Yep, one thing is to admit that no one can be placed above Nadal right now, other is to say that the tournament is his to lose (even if quite possibly El Dude did not mean that literally). If I would give percentages to players, maybe my list would start with Nadal at, say, 15%, and all the other guys with less than. I would say that the tournament is his to lose if I would give him more than a 50% chance of winning it, which I guess it is too much.

There are too many unknowns yet. Surely the top 2 players in the rankings right now will raise their level at RG time, but as everyone is asking, by how much? There is the eternal question mark also known as Wawrinka, and there is Federer. I can see him going out early, I can see him taking one big dog out and opening the path to another, and I can see him winning it all (less likely, but possible. As Front says, let´s see the BH 2.0 on clay. Hell, I wanted to see even SABR on clay).

 

[the AntiPusher]

Yep, one thing is to admit that no one can be placed above Nadal right now, other is to say that the tournament is his to lose (even if quite possibly El Dude did not mean that literally). If I would give percentages to players, maybe my list would start with Nadal at, say, 15%, and all the other guys with less than. I would say that the tournament is his to lose if I would give him more than a 50% chance of winning it, which I guess it is too much.

There are too many unknowns yet. Surely the top 2 players in the rankings right now will raise their level at RG time, but as everyone is asking, by how much? There is the eternal question mark also known as Wawrinka, and there is Federer. I can see him going out early, I can see him taking one big dog out and opening the path to another, and I can see him winning it all (less likely, but possible. As Front says, let´s see the BH 2.0 on clay. Hell, I wanted to see even SABR on clay).

SABR on clay is too risky..Fed would be a sitting duck..IMO

 

[mrzz]

^Honestly, I don't know. As clay is the slower surface, if you half-volley back the serve, you take the biggest possible of time away from the server. If your return is deep enough, it means that, say, 95% of the ball trajectory (from the server and back) was done before each the two ball bounces -- so the slowest part (which is after the bounce) is almost eliminated. That is, in terms of taking time away from the server, percentage wise, clay is the best place to do it. Of course, being a slow surface, the server will probably still have time to run around the ball and try to go for the pass. But my point is the difference from a normal return is huge. This could be very effective against a classical clay courter used to have so much time to set up his first shot.

Of course that, gun to the head I would say that is not a good idea to go SABR on clay. But given the above I would like to see it to be sure.

Maybe this is worth a thread...

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

^Honestly, I don't know. As clay is the slower surface, if you half-volley back the serve, you take the biggest possible of time away from the server. If your return is deep enough, it means that, say, 95% of the ball trajectory (from the server and back) was done before each the two ball bounces -- so the slowest part (which is after the bounce) is almost eliminated. That is, in terms of taking time away from the server, percentage wise, clay is the best place to do it. Of course, being a slow surface, the server will probably still have time to run around the ball and try to go for the pass. But my point is the difference from a normal return is huge. This could be very effective against a classical clay courter used to have so much time to set up his first shot.

Of course that, gun to the head I would say that is not a good idea to go SABR on clay. But given the above I would like to see it to be sure.

Maybe this is worth a thread...

Clay should give some time to line-up the SABR. Shouldn' it. Like come well in time and direct it properly.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Obviously it is Schwartzman's to lose but Rafa is a close second...

 

[Puppet Master]

Obviously it is Schwartzman's to lose but Rafa is a close second...

And you don't even mention Tommy Robredo as the favourite, or at least one of the favourites? Someone ban this guy...
So disrespectful...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It looks like Rafa will be seeded 3rd or 4th at RG and Roger will be seeded 5th (or less, but definitely 8 or better). So, the earliest Fedal match at RG will be at QF. The loser will go home with just 360 points (and that is less than how much one gets by winning Barcelona).

It would be funny if Rafa wins both Madrid and Rome, only to finally lose to Fed at RG. :angel:

 

[Busted]

You forgot one guy and I think you know his backhand is no longer an issue. That makes that match up even on clay completely different. Imagine Roger hasn't been that impressed by what he's seen so far in clay season. I sure as hell haven't been. Very beatable.

Truthfully I haven't watched any of Nadal's matches...but just seeing who he's beating in these finals? I mean...come on. He SHOULD be winning these suckers.

Monte Carlo -

F - #24 - Albert Ramos-Vinolas
SF - #13 - David Goffin
QF - #41 - Diego Schwartzman
R16 - #20 - Alexander Zverev
R32 - #45 - Kyle Edmund


Barcelona

F - #9 - Dominic Thiem
SF - #84 - Horacio Zeballos
QF - #94 - Hyeon Chung
R16 - #66 - Kevin Anderson
R32 - #69 - Rogerio Dutra Silva

Zeballos was so shocked to have gotten to play Nadal in the SF that he got a selfie after he expectedly lost. :laydownlaughing The average ranking of his Barcelona opponents - 64.3. The average ranking of his Monte Carlo opponents was much better - 28.6. Yes, he can only play who's showing up on the other side of the net...but given that most of these guys he should be able to beat on one leg while playing right-handed? :lolz: A win is a win but I wouldn't stay this a necessarily a great barometer of how well he's playing.