A Few Thoughts on Federer

[El Dude]

I didn't watch the match against Djokovic today, but I did see some of Paris Masters and, based upon that and the results today, I have a few thoughts.

One, it seems clear that Roger is back. Not to his #1 form, but he's out of the pit that was the last half year or so. He too the second best player in the game to three sets both times, and even looked like he had a chance to win both matches at some point.

That said, it also seems clear that he's no longer an elite player, or at least not in the same category as Djokovic, Nadal, and probably Murray. He could still be the fourth best player in the game - he did beat del Potro, who is probably the "best of the rest" right now - but that is questionable and even if he is, there is likely more of a gap between the Big Three and Roger than Roger and the other near-elites (del Potro, Ferrer, Berdych, and Tsonga). In other words, it could be that Roger is now where Andy Murray was for a few years before finally winning the US Open.

Going forward, I see two possible scenarios for 2014:

1) Roger continues to re-build his confidence and has a renaissance, returning--for a time at least, and/or in optimal conditions--to being a bonafide elite player (Slam threat). In this scenario, it is unlikely he'll be in the same category as Nadal and Djokovic, but he'll be close enough to Murray to be a Big Four.

2) He's maxed out now and stays at his current level as a near-elite player. He might win two or three tournaments next year, but no Slams and only maybe an ATP 1000.

In either scenario, he'll have a slow decline. I think he'll be able to maintain a near-elite performance level for the two and a half years to get to the 2016 Olympics, shortly after which (Wimbledon?) he'll announce his retirement. In other words, he'll finish 2013-2015 all in the top 10, probably in the #5-8 range the first couple years, maybe dipping a bit in 2015 and a bit more in 2016. I'd be surprised if he plays beyond 2016, when he turns 35, but you never know.

What do you think? Is the above a fair assessment of what to expect from Roger going forward?

 

[Moxie]

As you say, you didn't watch the match today. I won't address all of your points, but this match did not inspire any notion that he is "back." He failed to capitalize on leads several times. (Only really in the TB.) I realize he was playing Djokovic, but the "old" Federer would have taken his leads and run with them. Instead, he kept giving them back. It was a disappointing match from Federer, IMO. I'll leave the rest to others, for now.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

It is hard to say, but he is still struggling in the best of 3 format at times, so I highly doubt he has it in him to go best of 5 against Nadal, Djokovic and even Del Potro I would say. He even would have to go through at least a couple top players to get to a slam final at the moment, and as I say best of 5 is a tough call when he is having issues at times in the best of three with stamina.

 

[herios]

El Dude, I think you are a bit hasty concluding that Roger is back. Yes, he plays better than in the last few months, but he also is on his favorite and best surface.
Conclusive will be how he does mainly outdoors.
But first and foremost let's see if he can manage to qualify into the SF.

 

[brokenshoelace]

El Dude, I think you are a bit hasty concluding that Roger is back. Yes, he plays better than in the last few months, but he also is on his favorite and best surface.
Conclusive will be how he does mainly outdoors.
But first and foremost let's see if he can manage to qualify into the SF.

If I had a penny for every time Herios expressed sklepticism regarding proven champions like Federer, Nadal and Murray, only to show total faith in underachievers, unproven players, inconsistent players...and Fernando Verdasco.

 

[Kieran]

I wouldn't say he's back, but he showed some good form in both matches. But as was said, this is a good surface for Roger.

In neither match was he at the races once Nole got going in the final set. In fact, neither final set was as close as even the score suggests...

 

[masterclass]

El Dude, I think that is a relatively fair assessment. Obviously, we don't know what will happen going forward, but you seem to have included the most common alternatives. I'm not sure I agree with all your conclusions including that he is no longer an elite player, but I guess that depends on your definition. If you base it on results in the last 4 or 5 months as a whole, you can say he hasn't had elite results on the whole. If you base it on the last 2 1/2 weeks, I think he is pretty close to being there.

That said, he is still losing matches against the most elite like the one against Djokovic last night, from winnable positions where the match has been on his racquet. His serve is letting him down in spots, and is something he needs to firm up during the winter break. Too many double faults, not enough unreturnable serves or aces.

But one should also realize the following. He played only 10 matches from July 21 to October 20. That's 3 months. He has recently played 10 matches from Oct 21 to Nov 5th, going deep in Basel and Paris to qualify for the WTF, and then play none other than Djokovic in his first match.

So that's 10 matches in 3 months compared to 10 matches in 2 weeks. More good play is definitely what was needed to raise his level, but I'm not surprised to see him tired during the match after this recent push. Even Djokovic showed his tiredness in spots during the match, and he has been playing regularly, and is probably the fittest player in terms of endurance on the planet.
I'll be more surprised if Federer doesn't strain his back again, playing so much in a short span of time. But we will see what happens. Gasquet is next for Federer. Then Del Potro. Next year is anyone's guess.

If anything, the overall play here in London shows the short sightedness in scheduling the WTF on top of Paris-Bercy. A week off is definitely needed for players that have gone deep in the preceding tournaments to be at their best for the WTF. It was a mistake to do this, and will be corrected next year.

I don't know how the rest of the tournament will play out in terms of the players being tired. I don't know if one day off will be enough for some to recuperate. Some will, no doubt, but I'm not sure how high the level of play will be. The relatively slow conditions at O2 this year are not helping matters. It is placing a premium on endurance. One can also see the ball is bouncing somewhat higher than in years past. There are very few matches where the elite players in the world are hitting more winners than errors.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[nehmeth]

E.D., if you had had the opportunity to watch the match yesterday, I sincerely doubt you would have begun this thread. Roger should have lost in a quick 2 setter.

For some reason, Novak became "spastic Gumby" in the 2nd set, falling out of his serve, off balance on his shots and tripping over his feet. Even the commentator was making fun of the sudden loss of balance and coordination. Roger played poorly too - and I'm not a fan measuring him by his glory days. He looked pretty bad even for a 12 and under kid in a tournament. Novak was worse.

There was the odd brilliant shot from both, but they were like a few small flowers growing out of a manure pile. Roger looked good in the first 8 games of the match and that was really the only time he was consistently good.

Novak rediscovered his form in the third set and Roger continued pretty much at the level he played in the 2nd.

 

[El Dude]

Just to be clear, by "back" I meant - and said - that he was up a level from where he was playing during the dark days of summer. He looks closer to the player that lost in the SF at the Australian Open and QF at Roland Garros than the player that went out in the 2R at Wimbledon and 4R at the US Open. I was clear about that.

But masterclass, you give me hope. You point out that a lot of the flaws in his game are things that can be worked on, that have more to do with being rusty and his mentality than to an actual erosion in his skill-set. That to me is what I saw in Basel and Paris, if not (from what others say) in London - he's still got game. Maybe not elite game, but certainly near-elite. And, if masterclass is right, we could see more improvement next year.

 

[shawnbm]

He showed some grit and very fine shot-making going toe to toe with Novak at various points in the second and third sets yesterday. He tends to lose more of those big points than not against the top players these days and that is what makes the difference. There are times he can still run Novak ragged and put him on the defensive to where the uninitiated might think he is the top player of the two. But he makes too many UFEs and gifts games away, rapidly at times, which may be a reflection of loss of focus or nerves, or both. He is playing better in the last few weeks than he did for large swaths of 2013, that is for sure--but will it carry through into early 2014? I don't know.

 

[El Dude]

Roger's last three tournaments (ordered by rank at the time he faced the opponent):

WINS (8)
#5 Juan Martin Del Potro
#9 Richard Gasquet
#21 Kevin Anderson
#22 Grigor Dimitrov
#23 Phillip Kohlschreiber
#40 Vasek Pospisil
#48 Denis Istomin
#62 Adrian Mannarino

LOSSES (3)
#2 Novak Djokovic X2
#5 Juan Martin Del Potro

That's not so bad, and much better than his awful stretch from Wimbledon to Shanghai.

While it seems that he'll never be on the same level as Nadal and Djokovic again, I think he's still got what it takes to be in the #3-5 range next year.

 

[Kieran]

He's done well in the late season, alright, and he looks relaxed. I actually fancy him to get out of the group, though it could be a mathematical conundrum, but I expect he'll raise his game against DP in what essentially should be a quarter-final match...

 

[DarthFed]

Far way from being back to decent form. So far we've seen baby steps the last few weeks and nothing more. If he gets to the final then that's the first time in awhile he has had a good tournament...

 

[El Dude]

DarthFed, I think you might need to start adjusting your expectations. "baby steps and nothing more" implies that you expect a return to #1 form, which I think is unlikely at this point.

As I said, I'll be happy if he can stay in the #3-5 range next year and top 10 for another two or three. Hopefully, if we're lucky, the stars will align and he'll peak at the right time and take another Slam, but at this point I'm just hoping that we get to see Roger play for a few more years at a relatively high level.

 

[DarthFed]

DarthFed, I think you might need to start adjusting your expectations. "baby steps and nothing more" implies that you expect a return to #1 form, which I think is unlikely at this point.

As I said, I'll be happy if he can stay in the #3-5 range next year and top 10 for another two or three. Hopefully, if we're lucky, the stars will align and he'll peak at the right time and take another Slam, but at this point I'm just hoping that we get to see Roger play for a few more years at a relatively high level.

I'd imagine Roger will play as long as he feels he can compete at a high level and be a contender for slams. I don't think we've seen that level these past few weeks. What we have seen is him play a lot better than the FO - Shanghai stretch, but that's still a ways off from where Roger expects to be and he has basically said as much.

I think people's expectations have become too low due to such a terrible year. Despite his level this year I don't get the sense he has forgotten how to play tennis. Roger still has a lot more game than he is showing. Confidence, motivation, etc. are huge and I don't get the sense either were high this year.

Following an awful year he might feel the need to prove something in 2014 and just making the final here might give him a tiny bit of confidence. Anything less than the final and this was just another mediocre result like Basel and Paris. The thing is, "mediocre" looks awesome compared to the 4 months before it, but it still ain't "good"

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

Federer has had wins over 2 top10 rank blokes these last couple of weeks..

the rest of 2013 he only managed 1 win over a top10 rank player.

 

[El Dude]

Fair enough, DarthFed. The thing is, over the last three tournaments (Basel, Paris, WTF), Roger has looked like a #4-8 player. That's sub-par by his standards, but it will get him into the QF at most Slams and SF at some, which might be enough to convince him that he has a chance at Slams - even if he doesn't improve from where he is now.

But I hear you and agree - Fed isn't done and actually has more game than he's shown. Actually, the last few tournaments have encouraged me. I think he can take it up another half step, if not get back to #1-2 range.

 

[Fastgrass]

Firing Annacone was good decision by Roger.
You can clearly see that he is hitting more BH DTL and
also his BH in good shape like 2006 not in terms of power
but accuracy and style of execution .
BH is his weapon along with FH , but FH works when BH is
sharp and also he needs to hit BH DTL to execute his FH IMO .
I have also one observation that he was not hitting BH properly since 2007 and when Annacone came it became
pretty bad IMO .


Overall Roget is playing 50 % of his best , this is enough
against most of the competition .

 

[Kieran]

Roger's at 50% - and he's able to take Nole to 3 sets twice over four days? Imagine the trouble Nole would be in if Roger was at 60%...

 

[Front242]

Roger's at 50% - and he's able to take Nole to 3 sets twice over four days? Imagine the trouble Nole would be in if Roger was at 60%...

Yeah, he might lose 6-3 in the third instead of 6-2