2015 Masters Series 1000 Miami Final: Djokovic v. Murray

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Kirijax

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Djokovic was amazing. The way that guy can keep getting the balls back is something to behold. He makes his opponent hit 2 or 3 extra balls and that has got to be draining on whoever is playing him as the match goes on. And the way his shots consistently find the angles and depth as well. He's not my favorite player (of The Big Three he is) but I enjoy watching his matches.

The only time I avert my eyes is when he starts to hit an overhead. Aye Carumba!
 

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Luxilon Borg said:
Moxie629 said:
I thought the point of mentioning back surgery was just to say that he was doing better than last year, when he was recovering from it. Anyway, GSM made a good point about Andy perhaps needing a better physical trainer, if he was going to get so gassed in a 3rd set. But Billie is right: Novak is a better player than Andy, even on a day when he wasn't playing his A game at all moments.

Muuray's physical fatigue is a manifestation of his mental demons...self doubt, self loathing, and his negative body language. I guarantee it.

i'm sa bit confused. was it federer' 'mental demons' that caused him to get thrasehdd in the fianl set of the iw final?

djokovic has a naturally slim yet wiry physique - he is lighter than murray. murray is taller and stonger/heavier. he is adiffrent physiqeu - he was skinny when young, he's not natuallry muscular like novak. so when he builds himself up to be strong enough, . here''s the uk's best tennis journalist, imo, simon briggs, on the subject;

Plus - novsk's ability t slide surely means he cnserves energy, becaue ansy is running for those blls and novak just has to slide to them. that enerdgy consevstion adds up with each point that goes by.

andy hs been doing tons of oga anf fexivllity work for years. novk just won the genetic lottery when it comes to felxiblity nd musclie/weight ratio. he has the perfect phhsiaeu for a tennis player, beter than andy's. it's no coiciedene that the lgihter, omre wiry big 4 gys - fed and djok- have had so few injury issues.
 

Kieran

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Seriously, what's with Murray and the 6-0 sets with Nole? He crumples like the proverbial cheap suit so quick these days. 12 of 13 games in Oz, which is embarrassing, and now this one in Miami, his own patch, after winning the second set? I know Andy was always the Plus-One in the so-called Big 4, but he's getting the stage where he'll be a veteran soon (like Novak :laydownlaughing ) and he's so far off his best, it's time for something drastic.

Maybe he should seat Amelie beside Ivan at the wedding do? :popcorn
 

calitennis127

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Kieran said:
Seriously, what's with Murray and the 6-0 sets with Nole? He crumples like the proverbial cheap suit so quick these days. 12 of 13 games in Oz, which is embarrassing, and now this one in Miami, his own patch, after winning the second set? I know Andy was always the Plus-One in the so-called Big 4, but he's getting the stage where he'll be a veteran soon (like Novak :laydownlaughing ) and he's so far off his best, it's time for something drastic.

Maybe he should seat Amelie beside Ivan at the wedding do? :popcorn


He has to expend a lot more energy than Djokovic to play at the most elite level. That's why he falls apart late in these matches. He isn't as much of an athletic specimen.
 

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calitennis127 said:
Kieran said:
Seriously, what's with Murray and the 6-0 sets with Nole? He crumples like the proverbial cheap suit so quick these days. 12 of 13 games in Oz, which is embarrassing, and now this one in Miami, his own patch, after winning the second set? I know Andy was always the Plus-One in the so-called Big 4, but he's getting the stage where he'll be a veteran soon (like Novak :laydownlaughing ) and he's so far off his best, it's time for something drastic.

Maybe he should seat Amelie beside Ivan at the wedding do? :popcorn


He has to expend a lot more energy than Djokovic to play at the most elite level. That's why he falls apart late in these matches. He isn't as much of an athletic specimen.

Absolutely.

Djokovic is a naturally different build to Murray. he's muscualr yet lighter, and thus tires less eaisly. Murray's natural physique was to be skinny, and he had to bulk up to be strong, but this means he's carrying more weight around as he runs around the court - also because he's taller too. Murray was naturally skinny when younger, and had to bulk up through training to get strong. Djokovic has the naturally wiry - slim yet strong - physique - it's a major advantage that Murray can do nothing about.

Surely also Novak's amazing ability to slide to balls, whereas Murray has to run to them, also helps Novak to expend less energy? This would add up with every point played.

Murray also has been very dedicated to yoga throughout his entire career for flexibilty, but he's never going to be as flexible as Djokovic.

Djokovic has won the genetic lottery with his physique.

Murray has never been able to hang physically with Djokovic. He won the WD final in straights, and won the 5th set of the USO because Novak was cramping after playing 3 days in a row. The only match where Murray hung physically with Novak was the AOSF12, but even there Andy looked down and out physically before finding something from somewhere for one last push - but still lost.

Also noticeable that Novak is bagelling a lot these days, not just against Murray. He did it to Berdych in Beijing, to both Wawrinka AND Nishikori at the WTFs, to Stan as well as Andy at AO. These are players who are perfectly capable of winning the 3rd, 4th or 5hth set of matches against other players. Novak is just that far ahead at the moment, that he seems to take away the opponents legs by the end.



i suppose some people may say that murray



their attempts to stay with hjim for 2, 3 hours.

Since I debated about Murray's on-court demeanour in a previous thread, I'll just state again that I never disagreed that a player's on court demanour can negatively affect his performance. I don't think you've stated some amazing new truth that no one else had thought of, LB. I think this is a truth that is universally acknowledged. It is also not new to criticise Murray for it, and say that it negztively affects him. People, including the 'mainstreanm press', have been saying this for years.

what i perosnlly disagred with was the statement that this behaviour has cost murray 'countles slams and titles' as you put it [check how he put it!]. take murray's first gs final. let's forget the fac that federer had the major phsycial advantage adfter murray 2-day win of rafa int eh semis. say murray had been less tentative in the final, and a paragon of mental strength. what lwd have happned? murray would have put up a beeter fight, but lost anyway. i mean, this is a 27 year old fed we're talking about, arguably the greaest player to hold a racket. ebven if murray had been as mentally tough as possible, he still woudl ahve lost.

or what about the ao sf in 2012? what if murray had somehow mangede to win one of those break points he ahd to serve for the match inteh fifth? and then what if murray has managed to serve out that match? do you think, that after 5 hours against novak, he wluld have been able to beat a more rested rafa in the final? i don't.

even take the final the other day. if murray has been able to take that first set, would he have won the second and thus the title? if murray had wo the first set, the second set wld have gone differertly,. becuase djok wld know he had to win thaqt set or lose the mathc, so he wlsd have rrasied his level. and becaase his level is highter than murray, djok wld have won anyway.

i stilll contend that murray's mental 'flaws' are exagerratwed by him cotniaully having to face 3 all-tiem greats. if he was mentally toguher, he would just put up a better gight and still lose, fi the top guys are p;laying well. if they're undefrperming, he can win, and does.

[int he 3 big events so far this year, murray has got the final , the sf, and the f. on all three occasions he has lost to the owrld no. 1 and an all-tiem great. he has just racke dup 500 carreeer wins at age 27. and yet the thinhg sthat are said are; 'murray needs to see a psycholoasist' (he is , by the way), 'murray does not have a winning metnality'. not ahve aiwning mentalitt? the guy is world no,3, for pete's sake. not as good as djok? yes. NO the winning mentality of an all-tiem great liek djok? yes. but that is a very high yeardstic, of measurement. for the last 6 MONTHS, only 1 player has beaten novak at a big event (masters or gs) - federer. and he's a btter player than murray./ everyne else - eveyone else - has failed. was it their 'mental demons'? or ios dhjok just the best playuer in the world? i think it'as the latter.]



it;s not like murray cannot reposnd to adverisyt. he has raise dhis game when in trouble SO many times in his career. his mental strength and fighitng spirit is one of the things that separats shim from the berdychs and tongas, althoubh he is rarely prasied for it.

Murray cna chunter away, get annoyed, even when he is tested, when he is behind in a match, and come though qwith flying couliurs. no one talks about his on court demanour being harmfuol then, because he won. When he does not do this it's al;ways when he's [;ayin gthe big 3, who are better than him and wld win anyway, if they play well, and yet under these circumstances murray's loss is somehow attributed to his on court demanour. it's compeltwely illigcasl. if he didn'thave that demanour, he might get a few more games, another set maybe, here or there, but he wnd't wn. he can't win unless the big 3 are underperfmaornig, because they're phsycioally and techcnially supiroir (with the possibel expcetion of rafa physcially right now!)

i would also add thty it's easier to be mentally strong when you're the better player. fed seemed very metnally stong until soemeon came along who cld beat him - rafa - and then it was a different stroy.how wld djok fare against a player who was as better thatn him as he is than murray? wold he be a paragon of mental stenght, or wld he falter? we can't know for sure, but we can certainyl say it wld be a lot tougher for him to be as mentally strong. and let's say he was playuing a better tplayer than himself int eh final the other day, and lost that second set and had that out[burst as he did. then say he was mentalyy strong in the 3rd set, but because the other player was better than him, hwe lost that set, teh matcha dn teh title. then people wld be satying 'djok is not mentally strong', 'he shldn't have shouteed like that at the end of the secnd set - it sent a bad message to his opponent' etc. but becauze djok is abtter player than murrayu, he won and is thus a paragon of mentla strnegth.


murray is VERY mentally sdtrong aginst players he is better than. if you only looked at murray's matches against non-bog 3 players, you would think: wow, what a mentally tougbn guy! he almost alswyas comes through, even in the touigh moemnts, even when he's behind! he raises his level, he finds a way!]


as regards murray's recent lack of wins against the big 3:

[murray's 3 losses to djok this year have also been on slwo hards.] in his entier carrer, murray has 8 wins over djok, 6 of which are either on grass or on faster hards - 2 on grass, 2 in cinci, 1 at uso, 1 in dubai. this is no coincendence. murray's 2 ins over djok on slower hards - tonroto 2008 and miami 2009 - were when djok was nowhere near the player he is now. and eve that uso win, djok playwed poorly int he iwnd and trhen waas cramping in the fifth.

murray has only 5 wins against raf in his einter career , and in at least 3 of them rafa was not right physcially. since his surgry, murray's only palyed rafa twice, and both times on clay, and he's never betate4n raf on clay his entir caeer,

murray has had success over fed either at smaller tournamet swhen fed was off, or when fed was tired at the os aand ao sf13. i think it's actualyl mkroe difficlut to murray to beat fed now, cos of fed' new racket and m roe atqacking aporahc. in the past, fed was ocntent to rally with murray form the baseline, with gave murray mro of a shot, espciall if fed was having an off day and was making more ue with his grounstroeks. the mai8n chanve i see for murray to beat fed at this stage is at a slam if fed is tird cos he hadf 5-set mathc the preicvous round, ior seomthign liek that (that wa show murray beat fed at the os (fed pkayed the quelvalent of a 50st match egaisnt de,lpo previosu round) and at aosf13 (fed hasd [polajyed 5 set match agisnt tosgoma previous round), whih arwe murray's only wins over fed in best of 5 set format his entire career.

i thin murray's occasianl wins over the big 3 when they're undepepfmding, combined with his otubursts on court, leasd people to think 'if only he was mentally stronger, he'd be as good as teh big 3',. as ui have pointed out before, there are other things goiing in, both technical and phy7scial.

[a word on djok's fitness:



[i have a question. this year, djokovic has bagelled players ? times: names. these are players who are perfectly capable of wining 3rd sets, 4th sets, 5th sets against toher players, and have done. when djok bagelled them, i don't recal you posting to say it was because of their 'metnal demos'. i assume, like most people, you thoguht that they were simply yutplayed once djok had taken their legsby their attempts to stay with hjim for 2, 3 hours. but when EXACTLTY the sam erthing happens to murray, it's becasue of his 'mental demons'. inconsistency, methinks.]
 

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calitennis127 said:
Kieran said:
Seriously, what's with Murray and the 6-0 sets with Nole? He crumples like the proverbial cheap suit so quick these days. 12 of 13 games in Oz, which is embarrassing, and now this one in Miami, his own patch, after winning the second set? I know Andy was always the Plus-One in the so-called Big 4, but he's getting the stage where he'll be a veteran soon (like Novak :laydownlaughing ) and he's so far off his best, it's time for something drastic.

Maybe he should seat Amelie beside Ivan at the wedding do? :popcorn


He has to expend a lot more energy than Djokovic to play at the most elite level. That's why he falls apart late in these matches. He isn't as much of an athletic specimen.

Absolutely.

Djokovic is a naturally different build to Murray. He's muscular yet lighter, and thus tires less easily. Murray was naturally skinny when younger, and had to bulk up through training to get strong, but this means he's carrying more weight around as he runs around the court - also because he's taller too. Djokovic has the naturally wiry - slim yet strong - physique - it's a major advantage that Murray can do nothing about.

Surely also Novak's amazing ability to slide to balls, whereas Murray has to run to them, also helps Novak to expend less energy? This would add up with every point played.

Murray also has been very dedicated to yoga throughout his entire career for flexibilty, but he's never going to be as flexible as Djokovic.

Djokovic has won the genetic lottery with his physique.

Murray has never been able to hang physically with Djokovic. He won the WD final in straights, and won the 5th set of the USO because Novak was cramping after playing 3 days in a row. The only match where Murray hung physically with Novak was the AOSF12, but even there Andy looked down and out physically before finding something from somewhere for one last push - but still lost.

Also noticeable that Novak is bagelling a lot these days, not just against Murray. He did it to Berdych in Beijing, to both Wawrinka AND Nishikori at the WTFs, to Stan as well as Andy at AO. These are players who are perfectly capable of winning the 3rd, 4th or 5th set of matches against other players. Novak is just that far ahead at the moment, that trying to keep up with him seems to take away the opponents' legs by the end.
 

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Kieran said:
he's so far off his best

I think the contention that Murray is far from his best is inaccurate. Last year Murray was not able to train properly because of his surgery, so we can only really look at this year to judge where he's at. Of the 3 big events so far this year, he's got to the F of the AO, the SF of IW, and the F of Miami. That's actually one of the best starts to a season in his entire career!

Each time he has only lost to the world no.1 and an all-time great.

He lost to Novak at the AO, but he ALWAYS loses to Novak at the AO. He's NEVER beaten him there. Nor has anyone else, except one win for Stan, in the last 5 YEARS!

At IW Murray had the best IW tournament he's had since 2009, better than ANY of his 3 performances there when with Lendl (2R, QF, 4R). He then lost to prime Novak on a slow hard court, as he also did in Miami. Well, he's ALWAYS lost to prime Novak on a slow hard court. His wins over Djokovic since 2011 - ALL on grass or faster hards: Cinci, Dubai, Olympics, USO and WD.
 

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Looking deeper into the Novak-Andy head to head:

Novak has won 69% of their matches. Murray's wins could really be described as 'occasional'.

ALL of Murray's wins over Novak have been in straight sets EXCEPT the USOF12, when, as I say, Novak was cramping in the later stages after playing 3 days in a row. Conclusion: Murray has never been able to stay with Djokovic physically. Whenever a match has gone the distance, Novak has won.

The pattern in Andy-Novak matches is pretty clear, they've been going the same way for many years.
Murray can hang with Novak for a certain period of time, but if he doesn't win the first set and get on top early, he can't sustain it long enough and Novak will come through and win. This is no disgrace to Andy, Novak is just a superior natural athlete and a better player, one of the best ever.

Based on previous matches, Murray also needs the match to be on a faster surface to have a chance.
 

Kieran

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Great Hands said:
Looking deeper into the Novak-Andy head to head:

Novak has won 69% of their matches. Murray's wins could really be described as 'occasional'.

Or you could look at it and say that up until his operation, the score was 11-8, and Novak has won the last seven matches between them, all post-Lendl. There was nothing occasional about Murray's wins until he had to have an op. He's physically well now, but mentally, he's not the Muzza who dispatched Djoker in straights in the Wimbledon final.

calitennis127 said:
He has to expend a lot more energy than Djokovic to play at the most elite level. That's why he falls apart late in these matches. He isn't as much of an athletic specimen.

Lads, are you having me to believe that Murray went away 6-0 in the third...because he was tired? :laydownlaughing :laydownlaughing

Seriously? After playing two sets? And what happened at the end of Oz, where he vanished after getting into a good position in the third. He vanished. Was he tired then too? Come on. And it's not the match-up scam, either. Muzza goes away. That's to do with something else entirely...
 

Kirijax

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To put it into perspective, Murray is arguably playing the second best player this year. He is second in the points race. He could get it figured out after getting all the wedding stuff over with. It is very taxing picking out china patterns doncha know.
 

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^Arguably. The points race might suggest this, but for my money it's a bit early to place too much importance in the race. Perhaps after the clay swing? I would like to see how Murray does against other members of the Big 3. The way he got handled by both Rafa and Roger last year, suggests to me that he is still some distance away from them. When we have a larger data set it will be easier to tell if he's the second best player form-wise this year
 

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Kieran said:
Great Hands said:
Looking deeper into the Novak-Andy head to head:

Novak has won 69% of their matches. Murray's wins could really be described as 'occasional'.

Or you could look at it and say that up until his operation, the score was 11-8, and Novak has won the last seven matches between them, all post-Lendl. There was nothing occasional about Murray's wins until he had to have an op. He's physically well now, but mentally, he's not the Muzza who dispatched Djoker in straights in the Wimbledon final.

calitennis127 said:
you hasve to look a littel depper into that '11-8' though. 3 of andy's wins were in 2008-09, which aren't really relvnt ot the novak of today.
2011 to 2013 and andy's suregry is prime novak versus prime andy. head ot heasd - murray won 5 of 12, ALL on fastetr surfaces.
lie i said, last year is an anomaly because murray cldn't tria preoplry.
so this year murray has played and been beaten by novak 3 times - all on slower hards.
but how nmany times did murray beat novak on slower hrards under lendl? NEVER, is the anwer.

[murray's reconrd against novak on slwoer surfaces since 2011 - inlcuding during his time wit lendl -]


He has to expend a lot more energy than Djokovic to play at the most elite level. That's why he falls apart late in these matches. He isn't as much of an athletic specimen.

Lads, are you having me to believe that Murray went away 6-0 in the third...because he was tired? :laydownlaughing :laydownlaughing

Seriously? After playing two sets? And what happened at the end of Oz, where he vanished after getting into a good position in the third. He vanished. Was he tired then too? Come on. And it's not the match-up scam, either. Muzza goes away. That's to do with something else entirely...


was it rally so diffrert for muzza pre-surgery and with lendl on slow hards against djok?

ao13 final - pre-surger4y, when murray was with lendl: Two incredibly long, grinding, first 2 sets, which both went to tie-breaks, which they shared 1 apiece. Mid-way throught the 3rd set, and somewhere in the 4th hour of attritional tennis, Murray's level dipped, until Djokovic pulled away and won the latter end of the 3rd set and the 4th set extremely comfortably.

ao15 final - wihtout lendl, post-surgery: Two incredibly long, grinding, first 2 sets, which both went to tie-breaks, which they shared 1 apiece. Mid-way throught the 3rd set, and somewhere in the 4th hour of attritional tennis, Murray's level dipped, until Djokovic pulled away and won the latter end of the 3rd set and the 4th set extremely comfortably.

as to murray losing the 3rd set in the miami final the other day - as i said, it's not just hapneing to muzza. novak's been doing it to a bunch of guys, bagelling - or breadstickling - at the end, even in 3 set matches. the first 2 sets were long and atrtitonal, the first 3 games of that final set wer all close, and then murray fell away. the pattern is very consistent - - somehwere in the middle of teh third set, after 2 close, long attriotnal sets, murray fades pyisically. [
i've talked about how djokvic is a suprior athletic specidme above - i agree with cali on this.] int eh wd final djok was tired from playing the longest wd sf ever, in the heat of the day, and then playing hte final in the heat of teh day, in tempratures of 50 degres on court, which gave murray the phsghcial edge, and murray was able to win in 3, as well as getting more quick, cheap points on his serve on the grass.



i do agree, though, that teh mental aspect of losing so many times to the big 3 could hurt andy's confidence. in an interview, he said he was disregrding last year's results, becaus eo fthe surgery, which is a good isgn. but ti's easie rsaid than done.
but if you don't count last year, when he cldn't train properly:

his losing stre\k agains tthe big 2 is only 3 matches - agaisnt novak on slwo hardas, where he's never beaten rpime novak. at teh ao - where h enver beat novak, evenudner lendl. his best showing at ao? this year and 2013, where he reached the ifnal and took a set, both tiems. so he's euqlaaed his best oever showing at teh ao this year. in miami thisd year, he got a set off djjok - that' sbetter than he did when they plyed lst year, or in 2012 when murray was witrh lendl, when he lost to noval in straighjts in miami.

his losingf streak agaisnt nadal is o - he won their last match (tokyo 2011)

his lsoing streak agaisnt fede is 0 - he won their last match (ao13).

i agree with federberg - we need a larger data set to see where things stand.

[like federberg's!]
 

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Kieran said:
Great Hands said:
Looking deeper into the Novak-Andy head to head:

Novak has won 69% of their matches. Murray's wins could really be described as 'occasional'.

Or you could look at it and say that up until his operation, the score was 11-8, and Novak has won the last seven matches between them, all post-Lendl. There was nothing occasional about Murray's wins until he had to have an op. He's physically well now, but mentally, he's not the Muzza who dispatched Djoker in straights in the Wimbledon final.

calitennis127 said:
you hasve to look a littel depper into that '11-8' though. 3 of andy's wins were in 2008-09, which aren't really relvnt ot the novak of today.
2011 to 2013 and andy's suregry is prime novak versus prime andy. head ot heasd - murray won 5 of 12, ALL on fastetr surfaces.
under lendl specifcally, murray won 4 of 9, ALL on faster surfaces.
lie i said, last year is an anomaly because murray cldn't tria preoplry.
so this year murray has played and been beaten by novak 3 times - all on slower hards.
but how nmany times did murray beat novak on slower hrards under lendl? NEVER, is the anwer.

[murray's reconrd against novak on slwoer surfaces since 2011 - inlcuding during his time wit lendl -]


He has to expend a lot more energy than Djokovic to play at the most elite level. That's why he falls apart late in these matches. He isn't as much of an athletic specimen.

Lads, are you having me to believe that Murray went away 6-0 in the third...because he was tired? :laydownlaughing :laydownlaughing

Seriously? After playing two sets? And what happened at the end of Oz, where he vanished after getting into a good position in the third. He vanished. Was he tired then too? Come on. And it's not the match-up scam, either. Muzza goes away. That's to do with something else entirely...


was it rally so diffrert for muzza pre-surgery and with lendl on slow hards against djok?

ao13 final - pre-surger4y, when murray was with lendl: Two incredibly long, grinding, first 2 sets, which both went to tie-breaks, which they shared 1 apiece. Mid-way throught the 3rd set, and somewhere in the 4th hour of attritional tennis, Murray's level dipped, until Djokovic pulled away and won the latter end of the 3rd set and the 4th set extremely comfortably.

ao15 final - wihtout lendl, post-surgery: Two incredibly long, grinding, first 2 sets, which both went to tie-breaks, which they shared 1 apiece. Mid-way throught the 3rd set, and somewhere in the 4th hour of attritional tennis, Murray's level dipped, until Djokovic pulled away and won the latter end of the 3rd set and the 4th set extremely comfortably.

as to murray losing the 3rd set in the miami final the other day - as i said, it's not just hapneing to muzza. novak's been doing it to a bunch of guys, bagelling - or breadstickling - at the end, even in 3 set matches. the first 2 sets were long and atrtitonal, the first 3 games of that final set wer all close, and then murray fell away. the pattern is very consistent - - somehwere in the middle of teh third set, after 2 close, long attriotnal sets, murray fades pyisically. [
i've talked about how djokvic is a suprior athletic specidme above - i agree with cali on this.] int eh wd final djok was tired from playing the longest wd sf ever, in the heat of the day, and then playing hte final in the heat of teh day, in tempratures of 50 degres on court, which gave murray the phsghcial edge, and murray was able to win in 3, as well as getting more quick, cheap points on his serve on the grass.



i do agree, though, that teh mental aspect of losing so many times to the big 3 could hurt andy's confidence. in an interview, he said he was disregrding last year's results, becaus eo fthe surgery, which is a good isgn. but ti's easie rsaid than done.
but if you don't count last year, when he cldn't train properly:

his losing stre\k agains tthe big 2 is only 3 matches - agaisnt novak on slwo hardas, where he's never beaten rpime novak. at teh ao - where h enver beat novak, evenudner lendl. his best showing at ao? this year and 2013, where he reached the ifnal and took a set, both tiems. so he's euqlaaed his best oever showing at teh ao this year. in miami thisd year, he got a set off djjok - that' sbetter than he did when they plyed lst year, or in 2012 when murray was witrh lendl, when he lost to noval in straighjts in miami.

his losingf streak agaisnt nadal is o - he won their last match (tokyo 2011)

his lsoing streak agaisnt fede is 0 - he won their last match (ao13).

i agree with federberg - we need a larger data set to see where things stand.

[like federberg's!]
 

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Kieran said:
Great Hands said:
Looking deeper into the Novak-Andy head to head:

Novak has won 69% of their matches. Murray's wins could really be described as 'occasional'.

Or you could look at it and say that up until his operation, the score was 11-8, and Novak has won the last seven matches between them, all post-Lendl. There was nothing occasional about Murray's wins until he had to have an op. He's physically well now, but mentally, he's not the Muzza who dispatched Djoker in straights in the Wimbledon final.

You have to look a little deeper into that '11-8' though. 3 of Andy's wins were in 2008-09, which aren't really relevant to the Novak of today. Murray's 5 wins since then have all been on faster surfaces. This year Murray has lost to Novak on slower hards.
But how many times did murray beat Novak on slower hards under Lendl? NEVER, is the answer.

Andy's best showing at the AO? This year and 2013, where he reached the final and took a set off Novak, both times. So he's equalled his best ever showing at the AO this year. In Miami this year, he got a set off Novak - that's better than he did when they played last year, or in 2012 when Murray was with Lendl, and before his surgery, when he lost to Novak in straights.

calitennis127 said:
He has to expend a lot more energy than Djokovic to play at the most elite level. That's why he falls apart late in these matches. He isn't as much of an athletic specimen.

Lads, are you having me to believe that Murray went away 6-0 in the third...because he was tired? :laydownlaughing :laydownlaughing

Seriously? After playing two sets? And what happened at the end of Oz, where he vanished after getting into a good position in the third. He vanished. Was he tired then too? Come on. And it's not the match-up scam, either. Muzza goes away. That's to do with something else entirely...
[/quote]

Of course he was tired. I don't see why this simple statement of fact is so hilarious. It was very clear form watching him. Competing with Novak, especially on slow hards, takes it out of you.

Why is this so hard to believe? This is what hapened to Stan, to Kei - both were bagelled by Novak relatively recently, in 3 set matches at that.

I'm not denying the mental element to the tiredness. It is, of course, both metnal and physical, the two are interconnected. But he was definitely tired.

Was it really so diffrerent for Muzza pre-surgery and with Lendl on slow hards against Novak?

AO13 final - pre-surgery, when Murray was with Lendl: Two incredibly long, grinding, first 2 sets, which both went to tie-breaks, which they shared 1 apiece. Mid-way throught the 3rd set, and somewhere in the 4th hour of attritional tennis, Murray's level dipped, until Djokovic pulled away and won the latter end of the 3rd set and the 4th set extremely comfortably.

ao15 final - wihtout lendl, post-surgery: Two incredibly long, grinding, first 2 sets, which both went to tie-breaks, which they shared 1 apiece. Mid-way throught the 3rd set, and somewhere in the 4th hour of attritional tennis, Murray's level dipped, until Djokovic pulled away and won the latter end of the 3rd set and the 4th set extremely comfortably.
 

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as to murray losing the 3rd set in the miami final the other day - as i said, it's not just hapneing to muzza. novak's been doing it to a bunch of guys, bagelling - or breadstickling - at the end, even in 3 set matches. the first 2 sets were long and atrtitonal, the first 3 games of that final set wer all close, and then murray fell away. the pattern is very consistent - - somehwere in the middle of teh third set, after 2 close, long attriotnal sets, murray fades pyisically. [
i've talked about how djokvic is a suprior athletic specidme above - i agree with cali on this.] int eh wd final djok was tired from playing the longest wd sf ever, in the heat of the day, and then playing hte final in the heat of teh day, in tempratures of 50 degres on court, which gave murray the phsghcial edge, and murray was able to win in 3, as well as getting more quick, cheap points on his serve on the grass.



i do agree, though, that teh mental aspect of losing so many times to the big 3 could hurt andy's confidence. in an interview, he said he was disregrding last year's results, becaus eo fthe surgery, which is a good isgn. but ti's easie rsaid than done.
but if you don't count last year, when he cldn't train properly:

his losing stre\k agains tthe big 2 is only 3 matches - agaisnt novak on slwo hardas, where he's never beaten rpime novak. at teh ao - where h enver beat novak, evenudner lendl. his best showing at ao? this year and 2013, where he reached the ifnal and took a set, both tiems. so he's euqlaaed his best oever showing at teh ao this year. in miami thisd year, he got a set off djjok - that' sbetter than he did when they plyed lst year, or in 2012 when murray was witrh lendl, when he lost to noval in straighjts in miami.

his losingf streak agaisnt nadal is o - he won their last match (tokyo 2011)

his lsoing streak agaisnt fede is 0 - he won their last match (ao13).

i agree with federberg - we need a larger data set to see where things stand.

[like federberg's!]
 

Great Hands

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Kieran said:
Great Hands said:
Looking deeper into the Novak-Andy head to head:

Novak has won 69% of their matches. Murray's wins could really be described as 'occasional'.

Or you could look at it and say that up until his operation, the score was 11-8, and Novak has won the last seven matches between them, all post-Lendl. There was nothing occasional about Murray's wins until he had to have an op. He's physically well now, but mentally, he's not the Muzza who dispatched Djoker in straights in the Wimbledon final.

You have to look a little deeper into that '11-8' though. 3 of Andy's wins were in 2008-09, which aren't really relevant to the Novak of today. Murray's 5 wins since then have all been on faster surfaces. So, yes, this year Murray has lost to Novak on slower hards. But how many times did Murray beat Novak on slower hards under Lendl? NEVER, is the answer.

Andy's best showing at the AO? This year and 2013, where he reached the final and took a set off Novak, both times. So he's equalled his best ever showing at the AO this year. In Miami this year, he got a set off Novak - that's better than he did when they played last year, or in 2012 when Murray was with Lendl, and before his surgery, when he lost to Novak in straights.

calitennis127 said:
He has to expend a lot more energy than Djokovic to play at the most elite level. That's why he falls apart late in these matches. He isn't as much of an athletic specimen.

Kieran said:
Lads, are you having me to believe that Murray went away 6-0 in the third...because he was tired? :laydownlaughing :laydownlaughing

Seriously? After playing two sets? And what happened at the end of Oz, where he vanished after getting into a good position in the third. He vanished. Was he tired then too? Come on. And it's not the match-up scam, either. Muzza goes away. That's to do with something else entirely...

Of course he was tired. I don't see why this simple statement of fact is so hilarious. It was very clear from watching him. Competing with Novak, especially on slow hards, takes it out of you.

Why is this so hard to believe? This is what hapened to Stan, to Kei - both were bagelled by Novak relatively recently, in 3 set matches at that.

I'm not denying the mental element to the tiredness. It is, of course, both mental and physical, the two are interconnected. But he was definitely tired.

Was it really so diffrerent for Muzza pre-surgery and with Lendl on slow hards against Novak?

AO13 final - pre-surgery, when Murray was with Lendl: Two incredibly long, grinding, first 2 sets, which both went to tie-breaks, which they shared 1 apiece. Mid-way throught the 3rd set, and somewhere in the 4th hour of attritional tennis, Murray's level dipped, until Djokovic pulled away and won the latter end of the 3rd set and the 4th set extremely comfortably.

AO15 final - without Lendl, post-surgery: Two incredibly long, grinding, first 2 sets, which both went to tie-breaks, which they shared 1 apiece. Mid-way throught the 3rd set, and somewhere in the 4th hour of attritional tennis, Murray's level dipped, until Djokovic pulled away and won the latter end of the 3rd set and the 4th set extremely comfortably.
 

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Kieran said:
Great Hands said:
Looking deeper into the Novak-Andy head to head:

Novak has won 69% of their matches. Murray's wins could really be described as 'occasional'.

Or you could look at it and say that up until his operation, the score was 11-8, and Novak has won the last seven matches between them, all post-Lendl. There was nothing occasional about Murray's wins until he had to have an op. He's physically well now, but mentally, he's not the Muzza who dispatched Djoker in straights in the Wimbledon final.

You have to look a little deeper into that '11-8' though. 3 of Andy's wins were in 2008-09, which aren't really relevant to the Novak of today. Murray's 5 wins since then have all been on faster surfaces. So, yes, this year Murray has lost to Novak on slower hards. But how many times did Murray beat Novak on slower hards under Lendl? NEVER, is the answer.

Andy's best showing at the AO? This year and 2013, where he reached the final and took a set off Novak, both times. So he's equalled his best ever showing at the AO this year. In Miami this year, he got a set off Novak - that's better than he did when they played last year, or in 2012 when Murray was with Lendl, and before his surgery, when he lost to Novak in straights in Miami.

calitennis127 said:
He has to expend a lot more energy than Djokovic to play at the most elite level. That's why he falls apart late in these matches. He isn't as much of an athletic specimen.

Kieran said:
Lads, are you having me to believe that Murray went away 6-0 in the third...because he was tired? :laydownlaughing :laydownlaughing

Seriously? After playing two sets? And what happened at the end of Oz, where he vanished after getting into a good position in the third. He vanished. Was he tired then too? Come on. And it's not the match-up scam, either. Muzza goes away. That's to do with something else entirely...

Of course he was tired. I don't see why this simple statement of fact is so hilarious. It was very clear from watching him. Competing with Novak, especially on slow hards, takes it out of you.

Why is this so hard to believe? This is what hapened to Stan, to Kei - both were bagelled by Novak relatively recently, in 3 set matches at that.

I'm not denying the mental element to the tiredness. It is, of course, both mental and physical, the two are interconnected. But he was definitely tired.

Was it really so different for Muzza pre-surgery and with Lendl on slow hards against Novak?

AO13 final - pre-surgery, when Murray was with Lendl: Two incredibly long, grinding, first 2 sets, which both went to tie-breaks, which they shared 1 apiece. Mid-way throught the 3rd set, and somewhere in the 4th hour of attritional tennis, Murray's level dipped, until Djokovic pulled away and won the latter end of the 3rd set and the 4th set extremely comfortably.

AO15 final - without Lendl, post-surgery: Two incredibly long, grinding, first 2 sets, which both went to tie-breaks, which they shared 1 apiece. Mid-way throught the 3rd set, and somewhere in the 4th hour of attritional tennis, Murray's level dipped, until Djokovic pulled away and won the latter end of the 3rd set and the 4th set extremely comfortably.
 

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Look even deeper at that 11-8: Nole won the first four when Andy was a yellowhorn who still picked his nose in the post match interview. Andy was going toe to toe with Nole until the op - but more than this, he was fit enough to be able to play competitive tennis for longer than two sets.

And he was winning majors.

He didn't lose 12 of the last 13 games in Oz because he was fatigued, and he didn't go away 6-0 in the third in Miami because Nole ground him down to sawdust. He's training for five set matches - in Miami - and he's so knackered after only two , that he couldn't win a single game in the third... :nono
 

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Kieran said:
He didn't lose 12 of the last 13 games in Oz because he was fatigued,

Well, he looked physically spent to me, and as I say, he ran out of gas at the same stage 2 years ago, pre-surgery, when with Lendl, during the time when he was 'winning majors'.

Kieran said:
and he didn't go away 6-0 in the third in Miami because Nole ground him down to sawdust. He's training for five set matches - in Miami - and he's so knackered after only two , that he couldn't win a single game in the third... :nono

Nishikori and Wawrinka train for 5 set matches too. They still got bagelled by Novak in a 3 setter. It happens. As I say, combination of outplayed and mental and physical fatigue. Anyway, we're going round in circles now...

The two majors Murray won... one was in straights when Novak had played the longest WD SF in history, in the heat of the day, and then played the final in temperatures approaching 50 degrees, and was clearly not his usual self physically, taking ill-advised trips to the net on bad approaches to try to conserve energy...

The other - Murray won 2 sets and then had his dip... Novak came roaring back but then starting cramping in the 5th after playing 3 days in a row - he was clearly not his usual self physically - Andy took advantage.

My concern is that his losses against the big 3 last year, when he couldn't train properly because of his surgery, could affect his confidence. He says he's ignoring his results last year because he wasn't right physically, which is a good attitude, but it's easier said than done.

Anyway, I agree with Federberg. I think we need a larger data set - e.g. seeing how Andy fares against Novak on grass, or on faster hards, before writing his obituary... :)
 

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Andy reminds me of Rafa when he returned in 2009, or Rafa currently: when players miss significant parts of the season through injury, they lose touch a little, then on return they're keyed up but they're off the pace, so they lose matches, they then get uptight about this and their confidence takes a knock, they try too hard, can become despondent, a whole vicious circle until they get some big wins again.

Rafa spoke of being nervous recently, and this is understandable: he's been blighted by injuries and he's not on form, he's getting hits from guys he probably doesn't even recognise. But for Andy, it;s going on a bit long. He had a great FO last year, but then at Wimbledon he inexplicably dropped a calf against Grigor. Nothing to do with fatigue, this was all mental.

Still he competed well at the USO and was doing great in the late season events, had a strong Oz, and it afflicted him again, just when he'd gathered momentum in the final. I don't see Mauresmo correcting this, since she seems to have accepted his old whining negativity towards the players box as being nothing problematical. I think he'd benefit from a couple of wins against a top player, because tennis-wise, he's close, and physically - sorry - he's strong, but he lost something under the blade and unlike Rafa, who has mental strength to burn, he doesn't seem able to correct it yet...