#1 Ranking

[El Dude]

I didn't realize how close Rafael Nadal was to the #1 ranking. As it stands now, he's through to the 4R at the US Open and has 9040 points, while Djokovic plays his 3R match tomorrow and is at 9870. Assuming Novak wins, he'll be at 9960 - 920 points ahead of Rafa.

So what will it take for Rafa to be #1 by the end of the US Open? Well, here's what their point totals will be from making it to each round:

Round - Rafa / Novak
4R - 9040 / 9960
QF - 9220 / 10140
SF - 9580 / 10500
RU - 10060 / 10980
W - 10860 / 11780

If Novak makes the Final he'll be #1 no matter what. Actually, if he loses to Rafa in the Final then he'll end the tournament at 10980 and Rafa will be 140 points behind at 10860.

If Rafa wins he needs Novak to lose in the SF before. If he makes the Final but loses he can still be #1, but Nova would need to lose in the 4R.

 

[Moxie]

Thanks for the numbers. I've been trying to tell folks how close Rafa was getting, on an earlier (Aug.) thread, and even got sneered at by a poster, as if I were dreaming. Obviously, Nadal gave himself a huge leg-up by winning both Montreal and Cincy, but the key point is that he's defending nothing for the rest of the year, and beyond the AO.

I think the only reasonable scenario for Rafa getting the #1 at the end of the USO is Djokovic losing in the SF, and Rafa winning it, particularly with DelPo out. However, if it doesn't happen here, Nole is defending a lot of points for the rest of the year. So, barring a total collapse by Rafa, he will very likely pass Novak at some point this autumn.

 

[El Dude]

I agree, Moxie. Right now my prediction is for Rafa to edge Novak for the year-end #1. He main challenge will be that he has to either do well at the WTF, or do well enough between now and then so that it doesn't matter.

Novak losing in the SF is a distinct possibility considering that he's likely to face Andy Murray.

 

[Moxie]

My dream for Rafa would be to win the USO, take it easy until Paris, and win the WTF. If he gives himself enough down-time, this could be his best shot in London at the end-of-year.

 

[the AntiPusher]

My dream for Rafa would be to win the USO, take it easy until Paris, and win the WTF. If he gives himself enough down-time, this could be his best shot in London at the end-of-year.

Funny, I have the same dream:clap

 

[britbox]

That's not a dream, it's a nightmare.

 

[Denis]

I am rooting for Federer this Wednesday because of the No 1 year of the end ranking. In any event, even if Nadal loses to the Fedster, Djokovic needs to make a stand soon.

This goes to show how much the masters matter. Nadal only did well at one GS and he is almost No 1.

 

[the AntiPusher]

That's not a dream, it's a nightmare.

Just when I started liking you now you gonna make me all over again:clap

 

[brokenshoelace]

I am rooting for Federer this Wednesday because of the No 1 year of the end ranking. In any event, even if Nadal loses to the Fedster, Djokovic needs to make a stand soon.

This goes to show how much the masters matter. Nadal only did well at one GS and he is almost No 1.

Under normal circumstances this would never be enough. Nadal has a chance to become world number 1 because he has no points to defend from last year in this half of the season.

 

[Denis]

Very true. Even if Nadal loses to the World Number 7 this Wednesday, Nadal can still get 3500 points from the YEC and the two masters, of which Novak is defending 2500.

Despite most of it being indoors, it looks bleak to say the least. But the least Djokovic can do is try and make a stand.

 

[Riotbeard]

I am going to invoke my inner mastoor. Novak will crush all enemies at the U.S. open, one masters and the WTF, thus protecting his number one ranking. Kneel before Zod.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I am going to invoke my inner mastoor. Novak will crush all enemies at the U.S. open, one masters and the WTF, thus protecting his number one ranking. Kneel before Zod.

You should have inserted an obligatory "Nike Dolls" reference, discussed how Nadal/Federer's extra-tennis hobbies make them horrible people, and irrelevantly bring up the fact that Novak was raised in tough circumstances and that his parents worked hard

 

[tented]

I am going to invoke my inner mastoor. Novak will crush all enemies at the U.S. open, one masters and the WTF, thus protecting his number one ranking. Kneel before Zod.

You should have inserted an obligatory "Nike Dolls" reference, discussed how Nadal/Federer's extra-tennis hobbies make them horrible people, and irrelevantly bring up the fact that Novak was raised in tough circumstances and that his parents worked hard

The most glaring omission: No1e

 

[Riotbeard]

I am going to invoke my inner mastoor. Novak will crush all enemies at the U.S. open, one masters and the WTF, thus protecting his number one ranking. Kneel before Zod.

You should have inserted an obligatory "Nike Dolls" reference, discussed how Nadal/Federer's extra-tennis hobbies make them horrible people, and irrelevantly bring up the fact that Novak was raised in tough circumstances and that his parents worked hard

The most glaring omission: No1e

Darn it! It's clear this one is weak in the Mastoor.

 

[tented]

I am going to invoke my inner mastoor. Novak will crush all enemies at the U.S. open, one masters and the WTF, thus protecting his number one ranking. Kneel before Zod.

You should have inserted an obligatory "Nike Dolls" reference, discussed how Nadal/Federer's extra-tennis hobbies make them horrible people, and irrelevantly bring up the fact that Novak was raised in tough circumstances and that his parents worked hard

The most glaring omission: No1e

Darn it! It's clear this one is weak in the Mastoor.

He'll be flattered we're even thinking about him (I hope!).

Where is he, anyway?

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^ waiting for a relevant "No1e" win, there hasn't been one in a while.

I am rooting for Federer this Wednesday because of the No 1 year of the end ranking. In any event, even if Nadal loses to the Fedster, Djokovic needs to make a stand soon.

This goes to show how much the masters matter. Nadal only did well at one GS and he is almost No 1.

Under normal circumstances this would never be enough. Nadal has a chance to become world number 1 because he has no points to defend from last year in this half of the season.

i'd say that Nadal has a chance despite having no points to defend... or to put it differently, if Nadal had any points from last year, he wouldn't have a chance at the #1 ranking - he'd simply have the #1 rank.

yeah, i think Denis' point stands - after all, Nadal has a shot at making #1 with points from only two GS. which would be a very good reminder of the importance of the Masters Series.

 

[Denis]

The rankings for the single race to London are also quite telling. Nadal is a whopping 2240 points in the lead: http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

Djokovic essentially has 5 tournaments to make that gap disappear. He will just make it if he wins everything and beats Nadal in every final I think. So its still in his hands.

 

[Moxie]

^ waiting for a relevant "No1e" win, there hasn't been one in a while.

I am rooting for Federer this Wednesday because of the No 1 year of the end ranking. In any event, even if Nadal loses to the Fedster, Djokovic needs to make a stand soon.

This goes to show how much the masters matter. Nadal only did well at one GS and he is almost No 1.

Under normal circumstances this would never be enough. Nadal has a chance to become world number 1 because he has no points to defend from last year in this half of the season.

i'd say that Nadal has a chance despite having no points to defend... or to put it differently, if Nadal had any points from last year, he wouldn't have a chance at the #1 ranking - he'd simply have the #1 rank.

yeah, i think Denis' point stands - after all, Nadal has a shot at making #1 with points from only two GS. which would be a very good reminder of the importance of the Masters Series.

I get the point about essentially not having points from 2 GSs, but all points carry equally weight, and of course the MS's are important, particularly if you win them. 2 of them are equal to one GS.

The rankings for the single race to London are also quite telling. Nadal is a whopping 2240 points in the lead: http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

Djokovic essentially has 5 tournaments to make that gap disappear. He will just make it if he wins everything and beats Nadal in every final I think. So its still in his hands.

I have a question: does it matter who has the most points going into the YEC? (That is a serious question.)

 

[Denis]

On the YEC: yes it matters. Last year Djokovic overtook Federer during the YEC because of his results there. Remember the drama about Federer not sitting in the right seat? I wonder if Federer will concede to Ferrer the next time they meet lol.

On the Masters: 2 of them are equal to one GS? You got to be kidding me. Even a 100 Masters titles do not equal one GS. It's a whole different ballgame. Ask Caroline Wozniacki. Essentially, if Nadal doesn't win this US Open, he Wozniackied himself to world no 1 IF he makes it.... kidding, it's impressive that he won so many masters this year, but you need to deliver when it counts, at the GS.

 

[Denis]

PS, I hope Mastoor returns too. He is funny and a breeze of fresh air on this Fedal forum. But it seems that most Djokovic posters (Billie, Mastoor, Yolita, herios(where is he?)) have abandoned this ship unfortunately.