2026 US Open Women's Final: Sabalenka vs. Rybakina

[britbox]

Who wins?

 

[britbox]

I've gone for Elena in 3 - these matches are usually tight but I like her temperament in the clutch slightly more than Saba.

The bookies give Saba a slight edge. I asked Claude AI to chew the stats and give a summary which was quite interesting:

The bookies have Sabalenka as the favorite, but not by a landslide.

• Match odds: Sabalenka 1.73 vs Rybakina 2.20. Translating that to rough win probability (after removing the bookmaker's margin), that's about 56% Sabalenka / 44% Rybakina — a clear favorite, but well short of a lock. For context, anything near 50/50 is a coin-flip; this is more like "the favorite wins a bit more than half the time."
• Set 1: Sabalenka's also favored to win the first set (1.80 vs 2.00), so the market doesn't expect Rybakina to storm out ahead.
• Total games: The "over 22.5 games" line is priced close to even (1.80 vs 1.91), meaning the market expects this to go the distance rather than be a quick blowout — consistent with two big hitters who don't break each other easily.

Why Sabalenka is favored despite recent history:

• She's ranked World No. 1 with a big Elo edge (8,575 vs 8,141).
• Her overall head-to-head lead is 10-7, and she's on red-hot form coming into the tournament (rated "Unplayable Form," 85/100) versus Rybakina's still-strong but slightly lower "Good Form" (78/100).
• Sabalenka's been the more efficient closer this year — she wins more of her matches in straight sets (75% vs 55%) and rarely needs a third set.

Why it's not a bigger gap:

• Rybakina has beaten her in big matches recently, including a straight-sets win at the 2025 WTA Finals and a three-set win at this year's Australian Open.
• She's also been in great form to reach this final, arguably playing the tougher draw.
• Rybakina is a bigger server (more aces per match) and historically performs better in decisive third sets.

Bottom line : the bookies see this as a genuine 50/50-ish battle tilted moderately toward Sabalenka because of her ranking, form, and head-to-head edge — but Rybakina's recent wins over her keep the odds from being lopsided.

 

[Kieran]

That’s a really interesting Claude assessment. Mine is more brutal. I don’t like Sabalenko. I think she’s a big ugly brute, a bully and a player thinks she’s worth more than she is. She loses big finals as often as she wins, and bitches after as if she’s still the best player of the tournament. Martina she ain’t.

Rybakina is class. And she beat her in Australia. And she’s going into the final as the new number one but still less favoured than Saba the Furniture Chewer.

The underdog to bite! And to win in 3, having saved championship points, leaving the hulking world number 2 claiming that she was still the better player but a person the crowd distracted her by being there…

 

[Vince Evert]

I agree with britbox's review. Rybakina is a cool customer that rarely gets rattled. Elena in three sets, a final befitting of her world number 1.

Bring it on

 

[don_fabio]

Rybakina is class.

This is so true. Compared to Sabalenka she is royal.

Don't like Saba, she is too full of herself and gives me vibe that all titles belong to her before she even wins it.

I went with Rybakina in 2, she handled Coco and Zheng pretty well.

 

[the AntiPusher]

This is so true. Compared to Sabalenka she is royal.

Don't like Saba, she is too full of herself and gives me vibe that all titles belong to her before she even wins it.

I went with Rybakina in 2, she handled Coco and Zheng pretty well.

Agreed.. I am going with the Ice Princess Rybakina.. Sure SLapalenka is playing with a huge chip on her shoulder and with what the young folks a stank attitude, however Elena feels comfortable in the role as the world's new # 1. Rybakina is focused and is being coached by a team who is intune with her on every point. It will be a great match and it really depends on who serves the best. Let's @kskate2 Miss Keli give her two cents because she knows these players better than most of Us.

 

[kskate2]

Sorry won't be around for the final. On my way out the door, so no live chat unless Baron is around. It will be extremely close like Oz, but Elena in 3. You gotta believe Saba will fight tooth and nail to hold this 3-peat. She's looking for a lil payback as Elena stopped her previous 3-peat in Oz.

 

[britbox]

I have just woken up to find Elena up a set. Let's hope she can pull this off. Tough battle as most expected.

 

[britbox]

In the business end of proceedings Elena serving at 4-5. She's served well in the second set. Let 's hope she can hold.

 

[britbox]

Huge hold from Elena. Fends off 2 Set Points

 

[britbox]

Saba breaks for 7-5 and the second set. This one is going full term.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Saba breaks for 7-5 and the second set. This one is going full term.

These two players are very close in talent. I still have the ice princess to prevail. I think Elena will break her early in the 3rd set.

 

[britbox]

These two players are very close in talent. I still have the ice princess to prevail. I think Elena will break her early in the 3rd set.

Prophetic call AP.

 

[britbox]

Yes! Double break.

 

[Vince Evert]

she's done it in style, folks.

Game set and match Elena Rybakina

 

[don_fabio]

Can't stand these shenanigans from Lossalenka. Superb set of tennis from Rybakina in 3rd. I think she could have sealed this in 2 had she converted on some BPs. Nevertheless, congrats to Elena on her 1st USO title.

 

[Vince Evert]

courtesy flashscore, a good look here on the match-stats.

A final befitting of her number one status, she's got the better game and the edge over Arnya, certainly on hardcourts

Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina 1-2

WTA - SINGLES: US Open (USA), hard - Final

www.flashscore.com

 

[the AntiPusher]

The World's new number 1 is such a classy champion and a much better tennis ambassador than her predecessor Slapalenka .

 

[the AntiPusher]

Its good to see tennis being played with calm and grace instead of as @don_fabio stated without all those shenanigans from Lossalenka.

 

[Vince Evert]

the only blemish for her today was break-points conversion wasn't good, otherwise she was flawless - a great final to watch


Break Points Converted:

Elena 3/12
Arnya 1/3