US Open [Men] 2026 - Grand Slam

[El Dude]

USOpen final will be between Alcaraz and the surprise winner. Match will be one set all, locked in a battle in the third when Alcaraz feels something and the match derails from there.

Maybe? Alcaraz seems immune to in-match injury, or at least based on my memory. I think if he makes it to the final, he'll win. He's got an easy next couple matches (Faria, then Duckworth/Wu), but R16 could be tricky: Bublik, Paul, or even Prizmic has shown some stuff. Then he might have Shelton in QF, who I think has a good chance of beating him. If he gets past Shelton, then I think he'll win the tournament.

 

[Federberg]

He doesn't have the lovable quality of Fonseca. I haven't quite gotten a sense of whether his "antics" are misunderstandings (e.g. the non-bump of the ball girl) or he's a bit of a douche. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, for now.

I guess I'll describe my position as wary of him. I think the ball girl thing was just a trick of the camera angle, but the shoe laces thing? That was just dirty in my opinion.. I'm keeping an eye on him now

 

[kskate2]

Maybe? Alcaraz seems immune to in-match injury, or at least based on my memory. I think if he makes it to the final, he'll win. He's got an easy next couple matches (Faria, then Duckworth/Wu), but R16 could be tricky: Bublik, Paul, or even Prizmic has shown some stuff. Then he might have Shelton in QF, who I think has a good chance of beating him. If he gets past Shelton, then I think he'll win the tournament.

you're assuming Ben makes it there. He came slowly out the gates last night and then rectified things in sets 2-4

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm still going with Alcaraz. That said, Sascha has beaten him before - he's not as shit-in-pants as he is with Sinner.

Gill Gross pick Rafael Jodar. That seems premature to me, but I wouldn't be totally surprised - especially given his amazing rise this year. Meaning, if someone is going to win a Slam in their first full season, why not Jodar?

I found two first full season Grand Slam Champions:

Mats Wilander 1982 French Open. Overall season record: 61-18, 4 titles (including French Open)... Wilander turned 18 on August 22
Boris Becker 1985 Wimbledon. Overall season record: 57-19, 3 titles (including Wimbledon)... Becker turned 18 on November 22

Jodar is having a great season, but I think Wilander's 82 and Becker's 85 are out of reach. Plus, Jodar is 2 years older (he turns 20 this month) than Wilander in 82 and Becker in 85.

 

[AnonymousFan]

I’m not optimistic about Fonseca with the questionable movement, return, injuries. Maybe Jodar can eventually be what @Jelenafan hoped/hopes for Holger (forgot the nicknames) , right now he’s like the 2024 Emma Navarro of the ATP

 

[AnonymousFan]

Also Banshee/Danielle Collins = Ben Shelton. OK no more random WTA comparisons

 

[El Dude]

I found two first full season Grand Slam Champions:

Mats Wilander 1982 French Open. Overall season record: 61-18, 4 titles (including French Open)... Wilander turned 18 on August 22
Boris Becker 1985 Wimbledon. Overall season record: 57-19, 3 titles (including Wimbledon)... Becker turned 18 on November 22

Jodar is having a great season, but I think Wilander's 82 and Becker's 85 are out of reach. Plus, Jodar is 2 years older (he turns 20 this month) than Wilander in 82 and Becker in 85.

Wilander played 4 events in 1980 (#283) and 10 events in 1981 (#73), so he had almost a full season's worth (14 events) before 1982.

Becker played 1 event in 1983 (not ranked), 11 in 1984 (#66), so he had a bit more than a half season before 1985.

So. yes, first full season, but Jodar's first ATP was this year - so he's in a different category than those two. Of course he hasn't won it yet, but I still think it is probably the best first season in which a first ATP match was played. Technically the Next Gen Finals count as ATP level, but they're a bit of an odd ball because they count towards a player's Win-Loss record, but don't offer ATP points (like Davis Cup and the Olympics, but unlike United Cup which does offer points).

So I suppose we could say that Jodar is on route to the best season in which ATP points were first earned.

 

[mrzz]

I’m not optimistic about Fonseca with the questionable movement, return, injuries.

I am not optimistic either, but we can split the three items:

1) Movement: His movement actually got better over time. When he is healthy and fully trained, the movement is fine. I have seen him defending quite well in some maches;
2) Injuries: Here is the crux of it. Only thing is that I still don't know how serious those injuries are, or if he and his team are simply ultra cautious. One thing I can tell is that he and his team manage his carreer with ultra high objectives (#1, major wins, etc), and thinking in the long term financial return. Serious injuries are anti-correlated with long term prize money. Problem is that those missed tournaments (and most likely practice sessions) derail the actual development of his game;
3) Return of serve: That is his achilles heel, but at least they are clearly working on it. They currently opted for the Wawrinka style blocked return. It can be a successfull strategy, but they are not there just yet.

 

[El Dude]

It is also very possible that Jodar and Fonseca turn out to be "lesser greats" like Courier, or even excellent 1-3 Slam types. We tend to (overly) focus on greats, and consider young players as failures if they don't--at the least--become Becker or Edberg. But really, tennis history also includes lots of guys who are lesser or near greats, and they're fun to have around.

During the Big Four era, four players dominated the big events with only a handful of other guys winning big titles. The last decade or so has seen us gradually shift back into a context in which a lot of guys win big titles. But it doesn't have to be Sincaraz (tons) or Rublev/Hurkacz/Fritz (1-2). Medvedev and Zverev have somewhat split the difference, but chances are both (or at least Meddy) will stick to one Slam. Who knows, maybe Jodar and Fonzie will end up as 2-4 Slam guys...no shame in that. I mean, even if Sincaraz somehow manage to win 20+ each, that's one fewer 20-Slam winner to bogart all the trophies, so more to go around.

 

[kskate2]

Also Banshee/Danielle Collins = Ben Shelton. OK no more random WTA comparisons

that's doing a disservice to Banshee. At least she has a slam final on her record and various top 10 scalps.

 

[Murat B.]

Who knew Alcaraz had more tits than Tits himself...

 

[kskate2]

Cobolli in trouble. Down 2 sets to Comesana

 

[El Dude]

Cobolli in trouble. Down 2 sets to Comesana

He's climbing back.

Here's a question for y'all. Who will end up with a better career, De Minaur or Cobolli? Right now:

COBOLLI (24): 2 500s, 1 250; 1 Slam F, 2 Slam QFs; best rank: #6; 56.1 W% (106-83)
DE MINAUR (27): 4 500s, 7 250s; 7 Slam QFs; best rank: #5; 63.2 W% (337-196)

Obviously Demon has played a lot more and is over three years older, but that's 344 matches difference, almost five full years worth. Demon also has a significantly better win%, but I suspect that gap will narrow a bit over the next few years.

I don't see either ever winning a Slam, but both seem darkhorses for a Masters. Demon feels overdue, but he also has that "high floor, low ceiling" vibe that guys who max out at 500s tend to have.

 

[Jelenafan]

I'm still going with Alcaraz. That said, Sascha has beaten him before - he's not as shit-in-pants as he is with Sinner.

Gill Gross pick Rafael Jodar. That seems premature to me, but I wouldn't be totally surprised - especially given his amazing rise this year. Meaning, if someone is going to win a Slam in their first full season, why not Jodar?

He has a bit of a Safin in him, in that he’s a fairly tall guy who moves well on the court plus Agassi like in hugging the baseline and robbing opponents in fractions of reaction time. Well that’s Sinner-like;

That serve of his if he can reach its full potential…

My high school tennis coach used to say “you’re only as good as your second serve” and Jodar is very effective with his.

Kokkanakis had to withdraw so Jodar gets to now play a lucky loser in the 1st round.

 

[Fiero425]

Wilander played 4 events in 1980 (#283) and 10 events in 1981 (#73), so he had almost a full season's worth (14 events) before 1982.

Becker played 1 event in 1983 (not ranked), 11 in 1984 (#66), so he had a bit more than a half season before 1985.

So. yes, first full season, but Jodar's first ATP was this year - so he's in a different category than those two. Of course he hasn't won it yet, but I still think it is probably the best first season in which a first ATP match was played. Technically the Next Gen Finals count as ATP level, but they're a bit of an odd ball because they count towards a player's Win-Loss record, but don't offer ATP points (like Davis Cup and the Olympics, but unlike United Cup which does offer points).

So I suppose we could say that Jodar is on route to the best season in which ATP points were first earned.

I guess w/o the internet in the past, future all time great players weren't noticed until "they arrived!" OTOH, I hadn't heard much about Sampras until he upset Wilander in the 1989 USO, a yr. B4 he won it over Agassi in '90! W/ Becker, I didn't hear much about him until he won Queens in '85; BJK thInking him a "darkhorse" to win Wimbledon! It happened, Becker over Curren who upset McEnroe & Connors en route to the final! W/ social media today, players are being acknowledged pretty much "just out of the womb!" It's ridiculous to put so much pressure on children B4 they even get to Challenger events!

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Sampras-Wilander at the 1989 US Open was that generation's passing of the torch moment, akin to Federer-Sampras at 2001 Wimbledon.

 

[britbox]

Stan wasnt ready to play in the open. my concern was that he went home and broke his training regimen for a few days.. Too bad it had to end this way

Very competitive for a couple of sets. He had set points in both.



His last appearance in the majors. Roll on Basel, where he'll end his career on home turf.

 

[britbox]

Sampras-Wilander at the 1989 US Open was that generation's passing of the torch moment, akin to Federer-Sampras at 2001 Wimbledon.

You think? I always saw Lendl as the gatekeeper, not Wilander. I never really saw a definitive passing of the torch moment to be honest - more a gradual shift.

 

[El Dude]

You think? I always saw Lendl as the gatekeeper, not Wilander. I never really saw a definitive passing of the torch moment to be honest - more a gradual shift.

I can see what Phi means, as a symbolic moment - but agree with you, in terms of Lendl being the dominant guy of the late 80s, bridging Connors/Borg/McEnroe with later gens. And really, Wilander and then Edberg/Becker bridged those earlier gens, to Agassi/Sampras/Courier. Lots of great players in the 80s.

I suppose you could say that the Sampras-Agassi 1990 USO final signaled the beginning of a new era. Sampras beat Lendl and McEnroe to get to Agassi; Agassi beat Becker. But of course it would be almost three years before Sampras would win another Slam, two years for Agassi.

 

[don_fabio]

Who knew Alcaraz had more tits than Tits himself...

Too many nipples are finding their way out of the Nike t-shirt. That cut is way too big for tennis, it's more for a gym.