Cincinnati Masters 2026, Ohio, US - ATP Masters 1000

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Just think: If Meddy hadn't blown the 2022 and 2024 Australian Open finals, he'd be right there with Stan - 3 slams and locked into the Tennis Hall of Fame.

 

[Fiero425]

Mensik & Zed gone. That only leaves Tay as the last man standing to win a masters

They're droppin' like flies! This is why I laugh when there's talk of Sinaraz overtaking the records of the Big 3! I'm surprised that Sinner already has taken the Masters' record of winning 6 str. & getting his 1st Golden Masters rather early! Novak had a time trying to get past FedalRay in Cincy which delayed the inevitable! Gotta go update the blog! I forgot Jannik & Carlos have to be added to certain records!

 

[kskate2]

But at what cost? Red won all those masters tourneys in a row and lost sight of the prize. Missed out in AO, burnt out in RG and now questionable for NY.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I have my money on Felix he seems rested and Focused.. I think he will take care of Foe

 

[the AntiPusher]

Foe was too good.. I think he needs to be tested for something.. Never seen a human being sweat so profusely.. He must be taking something but its not creatine. He goes through at least 10 shirts ..one for every changeovet

 

[Jelenafan]

Spanish teen sent to USO early after RG finalist shows some metal. Rafa's had a good 3 weeks. Deep in DC and Canada, won a few rounds here. He's got more than a week to get ready.

Stop reading my mind. I was thinking Jodar r16 here at Cincy is a good finish so he’s not exhausted before the USO.

The kid is 19 years old & # 11 in the rankings. If I were a top 8 seed I’d be nervous where Rafa ends up in the draw…

 

[kskate2]

Foe was too good.. I think he needs to be tested for something.. Never seen a human being sweat so profusely.. He must be taking something but its not creatine. He goes through at least 10 shirts ..one for every changeovet

Oh, I don't know. I sweat profusely and I'm not a world class athlete. Got it from my mom. i'm sure he's being tested, especially after having that procedure. Besides, I heard he drinks a gallon of H20 daily and carries it w/ him.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Oh, I don't know. I sweat profusely and I'm not a world class athlete. Got it from my mom. i'm sure he's being tested, especially after having that procedure. Besides, I heard he drinks a gallon of H20 daily and carries it w/ him.

That's a lot of water. Smart move staying hydrated. He was way too good for Felix last night

 

[El Dude]

FAA has definitely been a study in gradually reduced expectations/hopes. I see expectations as likely floor while hopes are possible ceiling. It went something like this:

FAA first came on my radar when he was very young - 15 years old, I believe, either in early 2016 or late 2015. I can't remember where I heard of him, but it could have been Tennis Abstract's age rankings, specifically their "Not Yet 18" list. As with all such players, I take note of names, but don't make much of them until they start rising up quickly at a young age.

Anyhow, my first thought was "sounds like a kid to keep an eye on." My hopes started skyrocketing in 2018 when he came close to the top 100, but it was in 2019 that I bought hard on Felix: Not only did he jump into the top 100 at 18 years old, but rose as high as #21 just before his 19th birthday. I was certain that he'd be, at the least, an elite player and multi-Slam winner, and had hopes of greatness. 2020 was a bit of a setback, but that was true for a lot of young players (see Jannik Sinner, a year younger than FAA). But still, 2020 was mildly disappointing as he finished #21 for the second year in a row. Doubts began to emerge, but I was mostly still optimistic.

From 2020 through 2022, there was a nice trajectory of improvement that you can see in his year-end rankings: 21, 11, 6. But it wasn't the arc of a great player, so my hopes were reduced somewhat overall. But by the end of 2022, my expectations were as a very good 2nd tier type (ala Tsitsipas in his prime), with hopes of a Slam or three.

But then 2023-24 happened: Two years in a row finishing #29. At this point, my hopes were dashed. I thought he could be, well, what he is now: A solid, but middling, 2nd tier type. Something better than Richard Gasquet but not as good as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

2025 was a bounceback. Whatever was wrong in 2023-24, seemed to be solved in late 2025 when he went on a tear and ended up with his best year-end ranking of #5. My expectations weren't back to 2019 levels, and maybe not even 2022 levels, but it was nice to see him return to the top 10 player, but not really a regular top 5 guy.

In summary:
2016-17: A name to keep an eye on.
2018: Hope rising - this kid could be really good.
2019: Future great, or at least lesser elite. Multiple Slams, a bunch of Masters, and a #1 candidate.
2020-22: Likely elite, possible lesser great. Will definitely win Masters, maybe a Slam.
2023-24: Sigh. I guess he can make it back to the top 10, right?
2025-26: OK, this is who he is. Hopefully he wins a Masters.

Unfortunately, FAA is also a reminder that players like Fonseca don't always reach our hopes for them. FAA was the same age in 2019--the height of his upside (at least in my mind)--as Fonzie was last year, with similar results. Like FAA, Fonzie seems to be consolidating this year, not improving significantly. Meaning, FAA in 2019-20 = Fonzie in 2025-26. This is usually a sign that a promising player's upside is more as a second tier/lesser elite type than a great and/or future #1. I'm not ready to give up hope on Fonseca, as some future greats take a slower path (Federer, Sinner), but I am less confident that he'll be a future great now vs. a year ago.

 

[Fiero425]

FAA has definitely been a study in gradually reduced expectations/hopes. I see expectations as likely floor while hopes are possible ceiling. It went something like this:

FAA first came on my radar when he was very young - 15 years old, I believe, either in early 2016 or late 2015. I can't remember where I heard of him, but it could have been Tennis Abstract's age rankings, specifically their "Not Yet 18" list. As with all such players, I take note of names, but don't make much of them until they start rising up quickly at a young age.

Anyhow, my first thought was "sounds like a kid to keep an eye on." My hopes started skyrocketing in 2018 when he came close to the top 100, but it was in 2019 that I bought hard on Felix: Not only did he jump into the top 100 at 18 years old, but rose as high as #21 just before his 19th birthday. I was certain that he'd be, at the least, an elite player and multi-Slam winner, and had hopes of greatness. 2020 was a bit of a setback, but that was true for a lot of young players (see Jannik Sinner, a year younger than FAA). But still, 2020 was mildly disappointing as he finished #21 for the second year in a row. Doubts began to emerge, but I was mostly still optimistic.

From 2020 through 2022, there was a nice trajectory of improvement that you can see in his year-end rankings: 21, 11, 6. But it wasn't the arc of a great player, so my hopes were reduced somewhat overall. But by the end of 2022, my expectations were as a very good 2nd tier type (ala Tsitsipas in his prime), with hopes of a Slam or three.

But then 2023-24 happened: Two years in a row finishing #29. At this point, my hopes were dashed. I thought he could be, well, what he is now: A solid, but middling, 2nd tier type. Something better than Richard Gasquet but not as good as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

2025 was a bounceback. Whatever was wrong in 2023-24, seemed to be solved in late 2025 when he went on a tear and ended up with his best year-end ranking of #5. My expectations weren't back to 2019 levels, and maybe not even 2022 levels, but it was nice to see him return to the top 10 player, but not really a regular top 5 guy.

In summary:
2016-17: A name to keep an eye on.
2018: Hope rising - this kid could be really good.
2019: Future great, or at least lesser elite. Multiple Slams, a bunch of Masters, and a #1 candidate.
2020-22: Likely elite, possible lesser great. Will definitely win Masters, maybe a Slam.
2023-24: Sigh. I guess he can make it back to the top 10, right?
2025-26: OK, this is who he is. Hopefully he wins a Masters.

Unfortunately, FAA is also a reminder that players like Fonseca don't always reach our hopes for them. FAA was the same age in 2019--the height of his upside (at least in my mind)--as Fonzie was last year, with similar results. Like FAA, Fonzie seems to be consolidating this year, not improving significantly. Meaning, FAA in 2019-20 = Fonzie in 2025-26. This is usually a sign that a promising player's upside is more as a second tier/lesser elite type than a great and/or future #1. I'm not ready to give up hope on Fonseca, as some future greats take a slower path (Federer, Sinner), but I am less confident that he'll be a future great now vs. a year ago.

Love it! Not sure I'd equate "slower paths" of Fed & Sinner! Federer's game needed more marinating w/ all that flash & skill! Lucky for him, his comp. was nowhere near as tough as Sinner's if you want TBF! Roger dealt w/ the death-throws of Sampras & Agassi, then the near greats (#1 pretenders) in Safin & Hewitt! Roger blew up w/ little true comp. early on, but Rafa changed all that! As great as Roger's thought of, people had to admit Rafa owned him, "lock, stock, & barrel!" We rationalized the dominance; "it's mostly on clay," but that wasn't true! By 2008 even grass couldn't save the so call greatest rivalry! IMO, there has to be some trading of wins & by 2008, if Roger defeated Nadal, it was considered an upset w/ Roger compulsively "wagging his finger" after a MP! The arrival of Novak didn't help! Fed's dominance was over except in the minds of the Tennis Intelligentsia keeping him elevated & above the fray! Many still consider him "The GOAT" in his rivalry w/ Nadal, thought to be "The BOAT!" Roger got a little bit of a reprieve taking several matches over Rafa 2017-18! Real historians will know better!

Sinner had it a lot tougher IMO; starting late as a junior, then having to deal w/ the "end of an era" in The Big 3, Lost Gens. II, & of course Alcaraz! He has a lot more work to do, but his ascension seems to be a lot more impressive! I don't enjoy watching him play, but his results can't be overlooked or ignored! Already w/ a Golden Masters? Just a missed "MP" in completing a Career GS! End Rant!

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Unfortunately, FAA is also a reminder that players like Fonseca don't always reach our hopes for them. FAA was the same age in 2019--the height of his upside (at least in my mind)--as Fonzie was last year, with similar results. Like FAA, Fonzie seems to be consolidating this year, not improving significantly. Meaning, FAA in 2019-20 = Fonzie in 2025-26. This is usually a sign that a promising player's upside is more as a second tier/lesser elite type than a great and/or future #1. I'm not ready to give up hope on Fonseca, as some future greats take a slower path (Federer, Sinner), but I am less confident that he'll be a future great now vs. a year ago.

I disagree with this. I need to see what Fonzie does in 2027 before any conclusion can be made. What if Fonzie takes a huge leap next year, wins a slam, and ends say #2 in the rankings? Are you going to change your mind and say 2025-26 Fonzie = 2003-04 Nadal and 2027 Fonzie = 2005 Nadal?

 

[El Dude]

Love it! Not sure I'd equate "slower paths" of Fed & Sinner! Federer's game needed more marinating w/ all that flash & skill! Lucky for him, his comp. was nowhere near as tough as Sinner's if you want TBF! Roger dealt w/ the death-throws of Sampras & Agassi, then the near greats (#1 pretenders) in Safin & Hewitt! Roger blew up w/ little true comp. early on, but Rafa changed all that! As great as Roger's thought of, people had to admit Rafa owned him, "lock, stock, & barrel!" We rationalized the dominance; "it's mostly on clay," but that wasn't true! By 2008 even grass couldn't save the so call greatest rivalry! IMO, there has to be some trading of wins & by 2008, if Roger defeated Nadal, it was considered an upset w/ Roger compulsively "wagging his finger" after a MP! The arrival of Novak didn't help! Fed's dominance was over except in the minds of the Tennis Intelligentsia keeping him elevated & above the fray! Many still consider him "The GOAT" in his rivalry w/ Nadal, thought to be "The BOAT!" Roger got a little bit of a reprieve taking several matches over Rafa 2017-18! Real historians will know better!

Sinner had it a lot tougher IMO; starting late as a junior, then having to deal w/ the "end of an era" w/ The Big 3, Lost Gens. II, & of course Alcaraz! He has a lot more work to do, but his ascension seems to be a lot more impressive! I don't enjoy watching him play, but his results can't be overlooked or ignored! Already w/ a Golden Masters? Just a missed a "MP" in completing a Career GS! End Rant!

Federer and Sinner took slower paths to their peak level than most greats...they were behind the average curve of the top 15ish best players of the Open Era, taking a longer path from, say, outside the top 50 to #1-2. But I agree with you, especially with Federer. It reminds me of something someone said about Dimitrov at one point, when he was maybe 22-23ish and he felt like a disappointment. Someone said, in paraphrase, "His game has a lot of moving parts so is taking longer to come together and work in unison." That turned out to be somewhat true, when he had a breakout year in 2017. Of course he's not a great example, as aside from 2017, he's essentially been the same guy from 2013ish to 2024ish, but I think that quote illustrates that different types of games follow different developmental paths.

Roger Federer has arguably the most complete game--in terms of total breadth (and depth) of skills--in tennis history, so it makes sense that he didn't reach his peak until 2004 when he was 22-23. That said, even early bloomers like Rafa have later jumps. Rafa was great in 2005 (18-19), but found his peak form in 2008 (21-22). So the difference between Roger and Rafa is that Roger rise greatness was slower and steadier, while Rafa went from #50ish to #2 in really one clay season. Roger went from 301 to 64 to 13 to 6 to 2 to 1. Meaning, it took Roger three years to go form 64 to 2, but Rafa went from 51 to 2 in a year, zooming past those middle stages (Roger's 2001-02, or 13 and 6).

Anyhow, tennis is about match-ups. Rafa was a bad match-up for Roger. I think part of it was tactical and mental. Roger was stubborn and didn't seem willing to adjust, thinking "I dominate everyone else, so eventually Rafa will come around." Anyhow, we've gone over all of this endlessly (and tediously). Someone it doesn't seem right without Moxie present .

As for Jannik, he is mostly certainly already in the "Hall of Greats." In my mind he's a greater player than all but the very best. He's a greater player than Edberg, Wilander, Becker, and even Agassi (who is a bit overrated, imo), and really only needs a bit of padding to his resume to make that more clear in the record books. But his peak years (2024-26+) is already comparable to Lendl, Borg, and Sampras at their best - and much better than the other guys mentioned.

In Sincaraz we have an interesting contrast, but Jannik has been the overall better player since 2024, except for the middle of that year and much of 2025, but even last year Jannik was more consistent overall and only finished #2 because he missed a bunch of big tournaments. Carlos still has the feeling of untapped potential: Can he play like he did from about May through August of 2025 for a full season? Or is he always going to be stuck with a variation on "unsurpassed, but sporadic, brilliance?" That question remains unanswered.

 

[El Dude]

I disagree with this. I need to see what Fonzie does in 2027 before any conclusion can be made. What if Fonzie takes a huge leap next year, wins a slam, and ends say #2 in the rankings? Are you going to change your mind and say 2025-26 Fonzie = 2003-04 Nadal and 2027 Fonzie = 2005 Nadal?

Did I make any conclusions? No. So I'm not sure what you disagree with? I'm just pointing out that he hasn't really advanced this year, which may be a warning sign. But it isn't definite by any means. My money is still on him being very, very good, but I'm less certain than I was a year ago due to his overall stagnant performance this year (except for one lone event, at Roland Garros).

 

[Jelenafan]

Did I make any conclusions? No. So I'm not sure what you disagree with? I'm just pointing out that he hasn't really advanced this year, which may be a warning sign. But it isn't definite by any means. My money is still on him being very, very good, but I'm less certain than I was a year ago due to his overall stagnant performance this year (except for one lone event, at Roland Garros).

For most players a quantum leap ( as Arthur Ashe used to call it) has to be made by early 20’s, no? IMO At least a Masters win , Federer snagged his 1st one at age 20 and IIRC Sinner got his “late” at age 22, but by then he already made at least 2 other Masters finals.

To some a Masters is as tough in its own way as a Slam so I do thinks it a great trumpeting of greatness IF it may happen….

 

[El Dude]

For most players a quantum leap ( as Arthur Ashe used to call it) has to be made by early 20’s, no? IMO At least a Masters win , Federer snagged his 1st one at age 20 and IIRC Sinner got his “late” at age 22, but by then he already made at least 2 other Masters finals.

To some a Masters is as tough in its own way as a Slam so I do thinks it a great trumpeting of greatness IF it may happen….

Well, first of all, every player follows a different path, but there are common trends. For instance, most players rise in a step-like fashion: jump to a new level, hang out for awhile (consolidate), then jump again. Some do so more gradually (Federer, Sinner, etc), some more quickly (Nadal, Jodar, etc). But even Rafa was around #50 for a couple years.

Pete's trajectory illustrates this well. He entered the top 100 young (in 1988, not long after turning 17), then hung out in the lower part of the top 100 for over a year, gradually moving up, before spiking into the top 20, then again into the top 5...but then hung out in the 2-5 range for over two years, before becoming The Guy in 1993. You can see this here:

But in general, yes - a future great has always been elite by 21-22, as far as I can remember. Even guys that take longer to win their first Slam (Lendl at 24, Murray at 25) are elite players by 21-22. In a way, 21-22 is the "great separator" - when it becomes clear whether a player is going to be great, second tier, or less. There are exceptions, of course, but I don't think any of the exceptions are true ATGs.