The next (new) player to...

[El Dude]

Who do you think will be the next NEW player to...

1. Win a big title of any kind (Masters or better)?
2. Win a Slam?
3. Reach #1?

I ask because it just feels so uncertain--even unlikely--the further down that list we go. I do think we'll see plenty of new Masters winners in upcoming years, even this year if Jannik skips one, and simply by virtue of there only being Sincaraz as greats in their prime, there are just more opportunities for surprises to happen, which usually occur when a Masters has a weak field ala a good ATP 500 (see, "Vacherot, Valentin"). There are probably a dozen guys that either feel overdue and could theoretically win one (FAA, Demon, Berrettini, maybe even Big Foe), some newer breakout players who join that "maybe, maybe not" group (Cobolli, Musetti), and then the talented group of players born after Alcaraz that seem certain to at least win a Masters (Fils, Fonzie, Jodar, maybe Tien...though I suspect he'll be in the "maybe, maybe not" group). And of course we could put someone like Bublik in his own wildcard category--sort of the newer version of Kyrgios--but I'm thinking that last year was as good as we'll get.

That said, because I don't think Jodar and Fonzie are quite there, and while I'm tempted to pick one of the FAA/Demon/Berrettini types, my pick is Arthur Fils. If he can only stay healthy, I think he's got the best chance of being the next new Masters winner, even as a serious candidate at the upcoming NA Masters. Again, if healthy, if Jannik skips one and/or Carlos looks rusty. Fonzie could show in his RG, but I think Fils is a bit more likely in the near future.

But once we get to Slams, who knows. As with the above, I think Fonzie is almost inevitable, and maybe Jodar too. I'm a bit iffy on Mensik; he is talented and reached a SF, and I do see more big titles in his future, but I'm not quite seeing the guy who can get past Sincaraz in a Slam. When he's playing his best he could be a Slam contender, but can he do that for seven matches in a row and in a Slam final? Guys like Fils, Shelton, and Rune are legit dark-horses, but all have big question marks. Even more so are guys like Cobolli, Musetti, and the rest...I mean, Cobolli reached a final, but what I saw was a very good player in the prime Gasquet mold - not a Slam winner. I don't think he has the upside that we've seen with Fils or Shelton, or even some of the older dogs like Berrettini.

So for this one, my final answer is probably one of Fonseca or Jodar, and maybe not for another couple years. Fils and Rune are my dark-horses. I'd like to see how Rune comes back, and if he can not only re-capture his pre-injury level, but take it up a notch. I was predicting a later breakout to a higher level before he went down, but we'll just have to see. Unfortunately, Jack Draper would have been my answer a year ago, but I'm tending to think his career might be toast.

Finally, #1. This is easier to answer for me, because I just don't think there are many options for future number ones. Just statistically, it is significantly harder--or at least more rare--to get to #1 than to win a Slam. And this isn't the late 90s, with the only greats in decline and a rotating cast of characters playing King of the Hill for a few weeks. Sincaraz should have it on lock-down for years to come, so it comes down to either them aging out, getting injured at the same time, or the answer to the question: Who has the talent to truly challenge those guys? For me there is only one player: Joao Fonseca. Jodar is close, but I want to see more. I don't think Mensik will be consistent enough across the whole tour, and the other players to dream on are very young and way too soon to speculate on. So I'm going with Fonzie, then Jodar, but probably not for years to come.

That said, if both Sincaraz get hurt for months at the same time within the next couple years, I think Zverev is the most likely candidate. But he'd really need both to go down for several months, at least.

In summary:

1. Arthur Fils. Darkhorses: Fonseca, Jodar, FAA, maybe Berrettini.
2. Joao Fonseca or Rafael Jodar. Darkhorses: Fils, Rune.
3. Joao Fonseca. Darkhorses: Jodar, Zverev.

 

[Fiero425]

Who do you think will be the next NEW player to...

1. Win a big title of any kind (Masters or better)?
2. Win a Slam?
3. Reach #1?

I ask because it just feels so uncertain--even unlikely--the further down that list we go. I do think we'll see plenty of new Masters winners in upcoming years, even this year if Jannik skips one, and simply by virtue of there only being Sincaraz as greats in their prime, there are just more opportunities for surprises to happen, which usually occur when a Masters has a weak field ala a good ATP 500 (see, "Vacherot, Valentin"). There are probably a dozen guys that either feel overdue and could theoretically win one (FAA, Demon, Berrettini, maybe even Big Foe), some newer breakout players who join that "maybe, maybe not" group (Cobolli, Musetti), and then the talented group of players born after Alcaraz that seem certain to at least win a Masters (Fils, Fonzie, Jodar, maybe Tien...though I suspect he'll be in the "maybe, maybe not" group). And of course we could put someone like Bublik in his own wildcard category--sort of the newer version of Kyrgios--but I'm thinking that last year was as good as we'll get.

That said, because I don't think Jodar and Fonzie are quite there, and while I'm tempted to pick one of the FAA/Demon/Berrettini types, my pick is Arthur Fils. If he can only stay healthy, I think he's got the best chance of being the next new Masters winner, even as a serious candidate at the upcoming NA Masters. Again, if healthy, if Jannik skips one and/or Carlos looks rusty. Fonzie could show in his RG, but I think Fils is a bit more likely in the near future.

But once we get to Slams, who knows. As with the above, I think Fonzie is almost inevitable, and maybe Jodar too. I'm a bit iffy on Mensik; he is talented and reached a SF, and I do see more big titles in his future, but I'm not quite seeing the guy who can get past Sincaraz in a Slam. When he's playing his best he could be a Slam contender, but can he do that for seven matches in a row and in a Slam final? Guys like Fils, Shelton, and Rune are legit dark-horses, but all have big question marks. Even more so are guys like Cobolli, Musetti, and the rest...I mean, Cobolli reached a final, but what I saw was a very good player in the prime Gasquet mold - not a Slam winner. I don't think he has the upside that we've seen with Fils or Shelton, or even some of the older dogs like Berrettini.

So for this one, my final answer is probably one of Fonseca or Jodar, and maybe not for another couple years. Fils and Rune are my dark-horses. I'd like to see how Rune comes back, and if he can not only re-capture his pre-injury level, but take it up a notch. I was predicting a later breakout to a higher level before he went down, but we'll just have to see. Unfortunately, Jack Draper would have been my answer a year ago, but I'm tending to think his career might be toast.

Finally, #1. This is easier to answer for me, because I just don't think there are many options for future number ones. Just statistically, it is significantly harder--or at least more rare--to get to #1 than to win a Slam. And this isn't the late 90s, with the only greats in decline and a rotating cast of characters playing King of the Hill for a few weeks. Sincaraz should have it on lock-down for years to come, so it comes down to either them aging out, getting injured at the same time, or the answer to the question: Who has the talent to truly challenge those guys? For me there is only one player: Joao Fonseca. Jodar is close, but I want to see more. I don't think Mensik will be consistent enough across the whole tour, and the other players to dream on are very young and way too soon to speculate on. So I'm going with Fonzie, then Jodar, but probably not for years to come.

That said, if both Sincaraz get hurt for months at the same time within the next couple years, I think Zverev is the most likely candidate. But he'd really need both to go down for several months, at least.

In summary:

1. Arthur Fils. Darkhorses: Fonseca, Jodar, FAA, maybe Berrettini.
2. Joao Fonseca or Rafael Jodar. Darkhorses: Fils, Rune.
3. Joao Fonseca. Darkhorses: Jodar, Zverev.

I don't think we can definitely come up w/ anyone to ascend as the next elite player w/ any certainty! We're seeing all of them so inconsistent due to injury and/or exhaustion! Zverev finally crashed thru, but injury curtailed his success even at his best! Fonseca comes & goes! Fils plays the typical, physically exerting game that's made Monfils his mentor!

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Fonseca's rise reminds me more of Alcaraz, and Jodar's rise reminds me more of Sinner.

I think Fonseca takes the next step in 2027, and wins a slam, most likely the US Open. Jodar probably takes a step back in 2027.

I think Fonseca is the better player in 2027 and 2028 (he will reach #1 at some point in this 2-year period), but Jodar will reach a new level in 2029 and start winning slams/reach #1.

 

[El Dude]

Fonseca's rise reminds me more of Alcaraz, and Jodar's rise reminds me more of Sinner.

I think Fonseca takes the next step in 2027, and wins a slam, most likely the US Open. Jodar probably takes a step back in 2027.

I think Fonseca is the better player in 2027 and 2028 (he will reach #1 at some point in this 2-year period), but Jodar will reach a new level in 2029 and start winning slams/reach #1.

I hear what you are saying, but I actually see Alcaraz and Jodar as not similar to either, in terms of how they're adapting to the tour. Fonzie's path seems more like Federer: Slow, flashes of brilliance, then lags, then a big performance or three that reminds of how good he can become. Etc. Roger himself made the comparison awhile back; it might take a bit for everything to come together for Fonzie.

Jodar is so hard to assess, because he jumped from nothing to a top 20 guy about as quickly as I've ever seen. He's been more consistent than Fonzie, despite a full year's less playing time. He only started playing on the pro tour at the Next Gen finals in 2025, which counts to ATP W-L.

Jodar:
Career: 32-13 (71.1%)
2026: 30-12 (71.4%)

Fonseca:
Career: 54-36 (60%)
2026: 16-12 (57.1%)

That 71 W% from Jodar so far is top 10 caliber. Meaning, there are usually only about ten guys (plus or minus) who have a 70 W% or better in a given season. Fonzie's 57-60% is more commensurate with a 20-30 guy.

Jodar debuted a bit older than most greats, even though he's only 19 (turns 20 in September), so he's a bit hard to compare. But he is a top 20 guy as a teenager; most such players turn out to be elite players.

By the time Alcaraz and Nadal broke out in 2022 and 2005, respectively, they were 18-19 and had already played a bunch of matches. Jodar is doing something a bit different: He was "born" in an almost Venusian way, fully formed as a top 20 guy and is working his way up into the top 10. He finished 2025 at #168, based solely on Challenger and Futures matches, and has a chance to finish this year in the top 10.

I'm guessing that no one's ever done that: Finish his first ranked year outside the top 100 to top 10 in his first true season. Most hang out at a much lower level for longer. Rafa went from 200 to 49 to 51 to 2. Alcaraz went from 141 to 32 to 1. Wilander went from 283 to 69 to 7. Meaning, most have some kind of "in-between" stage; Sampras was in the high top 100 for a couple years before jumping to 5; etc, etc. Jodar seems to be skipping that altogether.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

El Jude,

In regards to Jodar and his meteoric ascent from outside the Top 900 in early 2025 matches historical elite teenager trajectories, example as those of Alcaraz and Nadal, by combining rapid Challenger success and maiden title in Marrakech, deep runs at major - clay court and hard court events
Moving from the unranked/sub -900 strata in the Top 15 within roughly 19 months does place Jodar in a rare tier of modern teenagers?

 

[the AntiPusher]

Who do you think will be the next NEW player to...

1. Win a big title of any kind (Masters or better)?
2. Win a Slam?
3. Reach #1?

I ask because it just feels so uncertain--even unlikely--the further down that list we go. I do think we'll see plenty of new Masters winners in upcoming years, even this year if Jannik skips one, and simply by virtue of there only being Sincaraz as greats in their prime, there are just more opportunities for surprises to happen, which usually occur when a Masters has a weak field ala a good ATP 500 (see, "Vacherot, Valentin"). There are probably a dozen guys that either feel overdue and could theoretically win one (FAA, Demon, Berrettini, maybe even Big Foe), some newer breakout players who join that "maybe, maybe not" group (Cobolli, Musetti), and then the talented group of players born after Alcaraz that seem certain to at least win a Masters (Fils, Fonzie, Jodar, maybe Tien...though I suspect he'll be in the "maybe, maybe not" group). And of course we could put someone like Bublik in his own wildcard category--sort of the newer version of Kyrgios--but I'm thinking that last year was as good as we'll get.

That said, because I don't think Jodar and Fonzie are quite there, and while I'm tempted to pick one of the FAA/Demon/Berrettini types, my pick is Arthur Fils. If he can only stay healthy, I think he's got the best chance of being the next new Masters winner, even as a serious candidate at the upcoming NA Masters. Again, if healthy, if Jannik skips one and/or Carlos looks rusty. Fonzie could show in his RG, but I think Fils is a bit more likely in the near future.

But once we get to Slams, who knows. As with the above, I think Fonzie is almost inevitable, and maybe Jodar too. I'm a bit iffy on Mensik; he is talented and reached a SF, and I do see more big titles in his future, but I'm not quite seeing the guy who can get past Sincaraz in a Slam. When he's playing his best he could be a Slam contender, but can he do that for seven matches in a row and in a Slam final? Guys like Fils, Shelton, and Rune are legit dark-horses, but all have big question marks. Even more so are guys like Cobolli, Musetti, and the rest...I mean, Cobolli reached a final, but what I saw was a very good player in the prime Gasquet mold - not a Slam winner. I don't think he has the upside that we've seen with Fils or Shelton, or even some of the older dogs like Berrettini.

So for this one, my final answer is probably one of Fonseca or Jodar, and maybe not for another couple years. Fils and Rune are my dark-horses. I'd like to see how Rune comes back, and if he can not only re-capture his pre-injury level, but take it up a notch. I was predicting a later breakout to a higher level before he went down, but we'll just have to see. Unfortunately, Jack Draper would have been my answer a year ago, but I'm tending to think his career might be toast.

Finally, #1. This is easier to answer for me, because I just don't think there are many options for future number ones. Just statistically, it is significantly harder--or at least more rare--to get to #1 than to win a Slam. And this isn't the late 90s, with the only greats in decline and a rotating cast of characters playing King of the Hill for a few weeks. Sincaraz should have it on lock-down for years to come, so it comes down to either them aging out, getting injured at the same time, or the answer to the question: Who has the talent to truly challenge those guys? For me there is only one player: Joao Fonseca. Jodar is close, but I want to see more. I don't think Mensik will be consistent enough across the whole tour, and the other players to dream on are very young and way too soon to speculate on. So I'm going with Fonzie, then Jodar, but probably not for years to come.

That said, if both Sincaraz get hurt for months at the same time within the next couple years, I think Zverev is the most likely candidate. But he'd really need both to go down for several months, at least.

In summary:

1. Arthur Fils. Darkhorses: Fonseca, Jodar, FAA, maybe Berrettini.
2. Joao Fonseca or Rafael Jodar. Darkhorses: Fils, Rune.
3. Joao Fonseca. Darkhorses: Jodar, Zverev.

I think you nailed this one with the exception of Senor Matteo and would put Musetti.. Musetti is more consistent as of late but his body is breaking down pretty frequently