I'm curious to know what your view is on Iran. Not the current conflict, but just in general, their relationship to Hezbollah, the animosity towards Israel, their impact on Lebanon. And if you would, how does that compare to your thinking about the GCC?
From a Lebanese perspective, there can be no doubt that Iran has had a strong influence on Lebanese politics, and largely negative. After Hezbollah's shocking victory in the 2006 war with Israel, they (meaning Hezbollah) grew more powerful than ever, and the way they ruled (no other way to put it. Yes, it was technically a democracy and the parliament was formed of deputies from all political parties but whatever Hezbollah wanted they got, and at times through the power of the sword, which they never really needed to yield...its mere presence was enough) was extremely heavy handed. Of course that doesn't begin to explain the struggle that Lebanon was facing since rampant corruption dated back decades, way before Hezbollah was even formed, and continued without ever looking back, with every party doing its fair share to contribute. Many made Iran the scapegoat as their unwavering backing of Hezbollah only allowed the latter to grow stronger, but as far as daily life of the ordinary citizen goes, not much had changed. I state the last part because the West can sometimes have a caricatural outlook on things, especially with media terms like "Hezbollah stronghold" and whatnot. In reality, daily life was the usual melting pot (not using this term in any romantic way, it just is what it is). Lebanon is by far the most "westernized" (for better or worse, usually both) country in the Middle East and remained as such. Politically and economically though, things were a complete mess but to blame that strictly on Iran would be an absolute joke, given that Saudi affiliated parties, and Western affiliated parties robbed the country blind, culminating in the 2019 economic crisis in which people literally lost all their bank savings (another topic for another day).
Where it gets complicated, and this is what you guys need to understand, is that Hezbollah's growing power (especially on the military front) also gave many of their supporters (we're talking roughly a quarter of the country here) and even some of their non supporters some relief that Israel was going to be kept at bay, at least for a while. Everyone knew it was only matter of time before another war broke out, since that 2006 defeat was a huge blow for Israel and they were never going to let it slide. I don't think many of you fully grasp what Israel is, its history, what Zionism is (seriously, a quick glance at the Wikipedia page is enough to make you wonder how is that even allowed to exist. It's straight up Nazi shit), so people here were always terrified of them, and rightfully so, given its bloody history, of which Lebanon was repeatedly a victim. So yes, while another war was always inevitable (and I disagreed, strategically, with Hezbollah's decision to join in back in 2023, even though I think Israel was never going to pass up on the opportunity to strike regardless), and no, you're not going to categorically defeat a military superpower like Israel, but that's not what a resistance's job is anyway.
From a pure politics perspective, I cannot be a Hezbollah supporter, or any other right wing group, especially a religious one, Muslim or otherwise. I also cannot be a supporter of their practices, to put it mildly, which have undoubtedly included political assassinations (that's pretty much an open secret), violence against protesters, etc... They have definitely ruled through fear at times, but in the interest of fairness, they have done so mainly in areas under their control. Lebanon is a very religiously diverse country, however small it might be, so non-Shia Muslim areas were devoid of Hezbollah presence.
Problem is, there is a boogeyman called Israel, and Hezbollah has proven to be the only one remotely capable of standing up to them. I know many out West think that Israel mainly retaliates but that couldn't be further from the truth. Even post the 2000 liberation of the south of Lebanon, Israel continued to violate Lebanese air space on a literal daily basis, have continued to occupy the Lebanese Chebaa farms, have refused to properly define the borders (largely because of potential oil drilling that they want to claim for themselves), etc...
It's getting quite wordy but Lebanon is such a complicated country and even with all the above, it's hard to fully explain things without a deep historical dive into the Lebanese civil war and the history of Israeli aggressions but I'll refrain for now.
I will say this re: Hezbollah and Iran. Where things went wrong as far as public perception not just in Lebanon but in the Arab world, was the way they handled the Syrian civil war. Hezbollah's direct involvement helped tip the scale back in Bashar's favor, but doing so involved committing atrocities over there. Strategically, their intervention was easy to understand: if Bashar falls, Iran loses a major strategic ally and its main bridge in moving weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah. So Hezbollah's very existence was at stake. From a moral standpoint, what happened was unforgivable and Hezbollah's reputation (and by proxy, Iran) has never recovered. They lost a huge amount of popularity and it was no more than what they deserved, especially when you're batting for a murderous dictator like Bashar. There's also the fact that the Syrian civil war stretched Hezbollah extremely thin. Yes, they got the desired result but it cost them casualties, resources, and most importantly, left them exposed to Israeli intelligence, which gathered crucial intel (not to mention Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah in Syria).
To sum up, I think Iran is a very politically shrewd country. My views on their relationship with Hezbollah is that it's hard to deny them credit for helping Lebanon in its wars with Israel, particularly with regards to the 2000 liberation of the south after 18 years of occupation, but obviously they weren't doing that out of the goodness of their hearts and everything comes at a price. The flipside is the way they operated politically was at times, doubtlessly tyrannical. For the longest time I absolutely loathed them with every fiber of my being, but right now, I actually believe Lebanon needs them.
Re: Iran vs the GCC, there is a predominant view among the West and its supporters, even over here in Lebanon, that the GCC are the good guys or at least, the lesser of the two evils. Largely because they've allied themselves with the West and have fully embraced the capitalistic hegemony. This often lends them a more "civilized" label. But take the UAE for example, and its modern slave labor practices, its funding of a genocide in Sudan, or Saudi's brutal war on Yemen, or how both have completely abandoned the Palestinian cause and have been instrumental in growing Israel's dominance over the region, and I just can't subscribe to that theory. The GCC have also caused its fair share of damage to Lebanon despite the financial aid, most recently in installing a Saudi puppet as president who is serving Israeli interests first and foremost. Ultimately I think they're just as bad as Iran on a moral level, except not nearly as politically savvy.
One last point I want to explain is you guys have to understand, among Shia Muslims, Hezbollah have been extremely popular, despite the fact that they completely crushed any form of dissent/criticism/etc... and were harshest in their measures against their very own. Again, I have to reiterate that politically and economically they've been an unmitigated disaster. However, for the longest time Shia Muslims were extremely marginalized, poor, neglected, etc... and suffered a great deal at the hands of the Israelis (unfortunately what's happening now is primarily meant to bring back those days, and it's already been successful as they've lost their homes, businesses, infrastructure, institutions, etc...). So Hezbollah's role in liberating the south meant that they were seen as complete heroes among Shias. Terrorist or not, and again, the West can conveniently label whomever it wants of anything it chooses, you have to realize that Hezbollah fighters are just people defending their towns, villages, cities, homes and families. They are people with daily jobs, lives, families, etc... They're not some bearded boogeymen living in terrorist-only headquarters. Keep that in mind any time you hear things like "Hezbollah stronghold" because that usually just means civilian buildings and people with lives and families. I strongly despise Hezbollah leadership and politics, but again, those who are actually resisting are just people who want to protect their land and people, and when push comes to shove, couldn't care less about Iran and global politics.
