2025 French Open Men's Final: Yannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

[Kieran]

You had me at "over-egg his nog." Haha.

I wonder if Denis Shapovalov watches Carlos and thinks, "Hey, that's how I try to play! Why doesn't it work for me?"

Shapo is still only about 26? He’s from the baseless generation, the brain dead squad, with sissy, zed and others. I suppose Medvedev and Thiem are from that class too but they at least won big at times..

 

[Kieran]

Actually in a match super TB, it's 10 points

I know, but I mentioned those first seven points because they broke the match, and Sinner, and also Sinner won the next two points.

The 7 points were a miracle..

 

[El Dude]

Sinner turns 24 in a couple of months, putting on my El Dude statistical hat isn’t that the time period when most players are close to their peak? So yes he deserves to be the prohibitive fave on HC.

24-25 are the most common ages for players to have their best years, or at least the average, with 21-28 being the broader range of common peak years. But really, every player is different. Some players had their best seasons as early as age 20 (Safin in 2000), while others as late as 31-32 (Ashe in 1975).

And of course "best year" isn't necessarily the same as "peak." This gets particularly tricky with Slams. For example, Goran Ivanisevic's lone Slam was in 2001 at age 29, but his peak level was 5+ years earlier. Michael Chang is the opposite: he won his lone Slam at 17, but improved as a player later on, in his early to mid 20s.

So I'd be leery of being too formulaic about age and look at the individual player. My sense is that Jannik Sinner is very close to his absolute peak...I'm not sure he can get much better, though he might still have better years ahead. He had an extended down period last year when he struggled with some injuries...if he were to play at the same level for an entire year, he could have an even better season.

 

[Fiero425]

I am and I have no issue saying it publicly. I've already said what needs to happen for Djoke to win 25. It would have to be the most PERFECT of perfect storms. An extremely friendly draw like he had at RG. Someone to do the dirty work of extracting the Big 2 from the equation. Lastly, face one of his pigeons or someone very green in the final. What's the likelihood of all that happening? I'll be the first to admit I was wrong if it comes to that, but we all know I'm rarely wrong around here.

According to you and many other "hatahs" out there, this is how Djokovic has been so successful his 2nd tennis life since 2018! People complained about his easy draws, Fedal was either upset or retired, & Novak seemed to have a schmo in the final making his journey so easy to 24 MAJORS! The truly delusional wont even give him credit for having to deal w/ Fedal early on; "they're old & worn down!" What a bunch of BS!

 

[kskate2]

View attachment 10091

Wait a minute! Didn't they all perish in the end?

 

[kskate2]

According to you and many other "hatahs" out there, this is how Djokovic has been so successful his 2nd tennis life since 2018! People complained about his easy draws, Fedal was either upset or retired, & Novak seemed to have a schmo in the final making his journey so easy to 24 MAJORS! The truly delusional wont even give him credit for having to deal w/ Fedal early on; "they're old & worn down!" What a bunch of BS!

This from someone who says Djoke is not his boi. Just admit you are on his payroll. The rest of us are already hip. Not even dignifying the rest of your post w/ a response.

 

[Jelenafan]

I think the USO is going to be interesting. Carlos playing the Olympics was dumb and as usual, when players play that they tend to lose in NYC. I think he’s going to have a mighty tilt at that title this year. I think he’s as good on hards as Sinner, and he’ll prove that, eventually…

That 2024 Olympics in the middle of summer on red clay when the next Major(USO) was to be played on HC was an anomaly (because the venue was the only red clay Major) that hopefully won’t happen again, in 2028 in LA it should be a HC.

But yeah, Rafa won in 2008 the FO, W & the Olympics & was utterly spent by the time the USO was played.

 

[kskate2]

And there’s his growing fifth set record, which will go someday but tells us a lot about how he builds himself into these matches. He’s really great at matchplay, whatever it is, he really has a temperament for the long match..

His 5 set record is obnoxious. 12-1. The only loss to Babycakes at 22 Oz.

 

[kskate2]

I know, but I mentioned those first seven points because they broke the match, and Sinner, and also Sinner won the next two points.

The 7 points were a miracle..

I finally finished watching the match. That TB was sublime. Yes he lost the next 2 points, but those were on Yannik's serve and he didn't drop any more after that.

 

[kskate2]

Medvedev had already played 3 or 4 five setters and I think was extremely fatigued in the final, but yeah, Sinner has 3 already and he operates well on the big stage.

But he’s going to have to figure out Carlos because Carlos had levels Sinner can only dream about. I wouldn’t hold it against him that he had 3 CPs, because he tried to do the right thing and didn’t execute well - that can happen - and we saw how coldly Carlos closed off that game. But the next game he was serving at 30-15 and that was his moment, on his racket.

Hard to know what he can do, but he’ll have to learn something to deal with Carlos at this level. Carlos likes playing him, and that’s not a good thing for Sinner..

This reminds me of what Nads went through w/ Djoke. There was a time during 2011 I think where he lost several in a row until he sometime later he was able to turn the H2H around. I don't remember what he did, maybe you do but it was probably something Suttle and maybe even mental.

 

[kskate2]

Well, it cemented both as all-time greats. They were both there already in my mind, but I think there's really no room for doubt. I think their play in much of this match was on par with peak Big Three - they're both that good. Longevity to be determined, but peak level these guys are both inner circle.

I would think the locker room is shaking in their boots. One guy was sidelined for months, didn't lose his ranking, didn't drop any sets until the final. The other showed flashes of superhuman ability. How is anyone else supposed to lift one of these majors?

 

[Kieran]

This reminds me of what Nads went through w/ Djoke. There was a time during 2011 I think where he lost several in a row until he sometime later he was able to turn the H2H around. I don't remember what he did, maybe you do but it was probably something Suttle and maybe even mental.

I think Rafa was badly treated at the US Open in 2011: he was defending champ and from memory I think he didn’t start until Wednesday, which because of rain that year meant he played 5 matches across the second week and so was bushed by the time they played the fourth set in the final. He might still have lost but he was beginning to get it right against Novak.

In Australia there was the famous backhand from hades.

I’m not sure exactly what he did but I think he began to play more towards Novaks strong shot - the backhand - but more out wide, so he could expose the forehand. Really in first four matches, the first two were tight and had he won one of them he’d have shared the rest (maybe) but the 2 defeats on clay shocked him: Novak was no longer a little boy who nodded his head and obeyed. Remember, in 2010 when Rafa faced him in the USO final, there was scoffing by some of us (me) at the notion of there being a Big 3, although it was considered a potentially tough draw if Novak was drawn in your favourite players half..

 

[Kieran]

His 5 set record is obnoxious. 12-1. The only loss to Babycakes at 22 Oz.

Thanks, I forgot that he actually lost one. I thought his record was impeccable…

 

[Kieran]

According to you and many other "hatahs" out there, this is how Djokovic has been so successful his 2nd tennis life since 2018! People complained about his easy draws, Fedal was either upset or retired, & Novak seemed to have a schmo in the final making his journey so easy to 24 MAJORS! The truly delusional wont even give him credit for having to deal w/ Fedal early on; "they're old & worn down!" What a bunch of BS!

Pay attention and you’ll see it’s true…

 

[Kieran]

24-25 are the most common ages for players to have their best years, or at least the average, with 21-28 being the broader range of common peak years. But really, every player is different. Some players had their best seasons as early as age 20 (Safin in 2000), while others as late as 31-32 (Ashe in 1975).

And of course "best year" isn't necessarily the same as "peak." This gets particularly tricky with Slams. For example, Goran Ivanisevic's lone Slam was in 2001 at age 29, but his peak level was 5+ years earlier. Michael Chang is the opposite: he won his lone Slam at 17, but improved as a player later on, in his early to mid 20s.

So I'd be leery of being too formulaic about age and look at the individual player. My sense is that Jannik Sinner is very close to his absolute peak...I'm not sure he can get much better, though he might still have better years ahead. He had an extended down period last year when he struggled with some injuries...if he were to play at the same level for an entire year, he could have an even better season.

Good stuff! When we think of Novaks “peak” we’d have to accept he won as many slams after 2017 as he did before, that's a good example of what you’re saying, maybe?

 

[Jelenafan]

24-25 are the most common ages for players to have their best years, or at least the average, with 21-28 being the broader range of common peak years. But really, every player is different. Some players had their best seasons as early as age 20 (Safin in 2000), while others as late as 31-32 (Ashe in 1975).

And of course "best year" isn't necessarily the same as "peak." This gets particularly tricky with Slams. For example, Goran Ivanisevic's lone Slam was in 2001 at age 29, but his peak level was 5+ years earlier. Michael Chang is the opposite: he won his lone Slam at 17, but improved as a player later on, in his early to mid 20s.

So I'd be leery of being too formulaic about age and look at the individual player. My sense is that Jannik Sinner is very close to his absolute peak...I'm not sure he can get much better, though he might still have better years ahead. He had an extended down period last year when he struggled with some injuries...if he were to play at the same level for an entire year, he could have an even better season.

Im well aware that every player can peak at different ages, and yes, results don’t always match your best tennis.

Sinner could , say, conceivably dip slightly in 2026 but if Alcaraz slumps horribly Sinner then could win 3 Majors playing in a slightly worse form.

My point was Alcaraz has just turned 22, whereas within 40 days Sinner turns 24.

The potential upside to improving seems to be on Alcaraz’s side versus Sinner’s, all things being equal. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but if player improves from ages 22-24, it’s not that great of a shocker using the statistical data we do have.

I do think the expectations are sooo sky high with Carlos that it’s skewed our perception of what he’s done. Yes, he is more inconsistent overall the last 17 months than Sinner, but damn, at age 22 he has 5 Majors on 3 different surfaces and 7 Masters & already defended 2 slams. And he’s beaten the top ranked player in the world 5 straight times. That’s more than the big 3 did at a comparable age in their careers.

 

[Kieran]

Im well aware that every player can peak at different ages, and yes, results don’t always match your best tennis.

Sinner could , say, conceivably dip slightly in 2026 but if Alcaraz slumps horribly Sinner then could win 3 Majors playing in a slightly worse form.

My point was Alcaraz has just turned 22, whereas within 40 days Sinner turns 24.

The potential upside to improving seems to be on Alcaraz’s side versus Sinner’s, all things being equal. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but if player improves from ages 22-24, it’s not that great of a shocker using the statistical data we do have.

I do think the expectations are sooo sky high with Carlos that it’s skewed our perception of what he’s done. Yes, he is more inconsistent overall the last 17 months than Sinner, but damn, at age 22 he has 5 Majors on 3 different surfaces and 7 Masters & already defended 2 slams. And he’s beaten the top ranked player in the world 5 straight times. That’s more than the big 3 did at a comparable age in their careers.

Yeah it’s funny that Carlos has had his critics since he won the USO in 2022, based on that he didn’t win every single match since then. He plays and grows in the face of that. Sundays final was his most mature match, less show boating and more suffering - or resistance, as Rafa calls it..

 

[Fiero425]

Im well aware that every player can peak at different ages, and yes, results don’t always match your best tennis.

Sinner could , say, conceivably dip slightly in 2026 but if Alcaraz slumps horribly Sinner then could win 3 Majors playing in a slightly worse form.

My point was Alcaraz has just turned 22, whereas within 40 days Sinner turns 24.

The potential upside to improving seems to be on Alcaraz’s side versus Sinner’s, all things being equal. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but if player improves from ages 22-24, it’s not that great of a shocker using the statistical data we do have.

I do think the expectations are sooo sky high with Carlos that it’s skewed our perception of what he’s done. Yes, he is more inconsistent overall the last 17 months than Sinner, but damn, at age 22 he has 5 Majors on 3 different surfaces and 7 Masters & already defended 2 slams. And he’s beaten the top ranked player in the world 5 straight times. That’s more than the big 3 did at a comparable age in their careers.

Sing those praises babe! I haven't been happy w/ Carlos' "hot dog" persona, showboating & wasting energy that may or may not cost him! Saw a clip of Patrick Mouratoglou on TCC today after Carlos defended his FO crown! He's the "go to" person to explain the dynamics of winning, being on top, blah, blah, blah! Anyway, he brought up the fact that only Alcaraz is beating Sinner even w/ his suspension, but Carlos has lost to many different players b/c psychologically they feel they have a chance to beat him! Sinner's game is more basic & is unflappable these days! Alcaraz has shown immaturity (which I've pt'd out) that has cost him matches to players not in his class! That's his achilles heel; too free-spirited m/b?

 

[Jelenafan]

Sing those praises babe! I haven't been happy w/ Carlos' "hot dog" persona, showboating & wasting energy that may or may not cost him! Saw a clip of Patrick Mouratoglou on TCC today after Carlos defended his FO crown! He's the "go to" person to explain the dynamics of winning, being on top, blah, blah, blah! Anyway, he brought up the fact that only Alcaraz is beating Sinner even w/ his suspension, but Carlos has lost to many different players b/c psychologically they feel they have a chance to beat him! Sinner's game is more basic & is unflappable these days! Alcaraz has shown immaturity (which I've pt'd out) that has cost him matches to players not in his class! That's his achilles heel; too free-spirited m/b?

Putting it in perspective: a young Roger Federer was brilliant at times but erratic until he found his groove and at the ripe old age of 22 had won 1 Major and 1 Master. It took him awhile to acquire “maturity”. At the same age Carlos has 5 Majors and 7 Masters. So his immaturity & inconsistency hasn’t stopped him from defending 2 different Majors.

No one disputes Carlos has already all the shots in tennis and excels on all surfaces.

Add this; There is no Olympic Games this year to upset the cart. Last year Carlos went from winning the Channel Double at the ripe old age of 21 to then play the Olympics on red clay. So he went from red clay to grass to red clay again and then to hard courts all within 2 months.

IMO This fall is telling because after Wimbledon Carlos is just playing hard courts for the next 6 months, and being seeded # 2 doesn’t play Sinner unless they both get to the finals. So yes, the one jarring note in Carlos is his inconsistency, but as others have noted, the depth in the game has also changed.

Having said that , I don’t expect Carlos to lose in the 1st round of Cincinnati Masters and the 2nd round of the USO as he did last year in a relatively dismal fall HC season.

*If* he does do that badly this fall, then yes, his inconsistency could potentially be a “chronic” issue.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I am and I have no issue saying it publicly. I've already said what needs to happen for Djoke to win 25. It would have to be the most PERFECT of perfect storms. An extremely friendly draw like he had at RG. Someone to do the dirty work of extracting the Big 2 from the equation. Lastly, face one of his pigeons or someone very green in the final. What's the likelihood of all that happening? I'll be the first to admit I was wrong if it comes to that, but we all know I'm rarely wrong around here.

Which is why if it is going to happen, it's going to be at Wimbledon, with the unique short turnaround. That has the potential to create the perfect storm. Novak might not even need it anyways. There's a reason he has been to 6 straight Wimbledon finals, and won 4 of them. I'm not going to count Novak out, especially when he is close to healthy and playing some of his best tennis recently. This reminds me a lot of 2019 Wimbledon, when an almost 38-year-old Roger Federer nearly pulled it off.