2025 ATP General News

[MargaretMcAleer]

Watched some highlights of Mensik today after he suffered an early loss in Munich, he looked good today, maybe the conditions in Madrid suit him

 

[Jelenafan]

..,Actually, I don't know why anyone hasn't made this comparison, but Alcaraz has a bit of Borg in that he dominates on clay and grass, less so on hards (though Borg had the now-gone fourth surface, carpet, where he was super dominant)…

Honestly I don’t think the comparison quite fits the 2 players, Borg while a very good HC player at the USO seemed a bit flummoxed specifically by both the playing surface & conditions (night lights).

In contrast, Alcaraz already has won a Slam on HC (USO) and 3 HC Masters all by the age of 20/21. Didn’t he beat Sinner in their last HC tournament final last winter?

If anything IMO Carlos’ issues stem more perhaps in finding the right prep/conditioning & mental consistency in tune for the last few HC slams , (I think he was exhausted by the USO last year) but not because hard courts are in themselves a challenge to him.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Rome already giving out wild cards
The Berrettini Brothers received a wild card into the doubles, btw no resemblance at all as brothers.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

ATP1000 Madrid
Sunday 26th April, matches start at 11.00am
Top seeds begin their first round matches
Djokovic,(4) Draper (5) de Minaur (6) Musetti (10) Paul (11)

 

[Moxie]

Oh, and to respond to @Moxie . Good point about Wimbledon, though I think 2024-25 has set up a specific dynamic: If you want to win a hard court Slam, you have to get past Jannik; if you want to win clay or grass, you have to get past Carlos. While it has only been five Slams in a row, that's held consistent so far. I think my only question is whether Jannik can steal clay or grass from Carlos as the guy to beat.

As Jelanafan says, we're mostly agreeing on all of these things, but I think J and I are more discussing the next years to come. A firewall of one is not that impenetrable. There are top guys, but they are fallible. Yes, I think we have to get over the era of the big 3. What looks good right now isn't guaranteeing results tomorrow. Therefore, all of the tournaments and maybe the Slams seem more up-for-grabs.

Actually, I don't know why anyone hasn't made this comparison, but Alcaraz has a bit of Borg in that he dominates on clay and grass, less so on hards (though Borg had the now-gone fourth surface, carpet, where he was super dominant).

But Alcaraz is a great HC player. Borg had a short career, and only played the AO once. I don't know his overall record on HCs, but I don't see the two as an immediate comparison. I could look into that. On court, they're polar opposites. The Borg-Nadal comparison is still better.

 

[Moxie]

Yes, this is well said, though I would say that one name comes to mind: Casper Ruud, whose last three RG results are F, F, SF. I don't think he could beat a healthy Alcaraz or Sinner in a Slam final, but I'm pretty sure he'll reach at least the 4th round.

But yeah, I think you're getting my larger point, which is that RG is more up for grabs than it has been in two decades and we have a good chance of seeing some surprises.

When considering clay greatness, we have to sort of forget Rafa. The only player who came vaguely close to his clay/RG dominance was Borg, albeit in a very different era and even he "only" won 85.7% of clay matches (vs. Rafa's 90.5%). According to Elo, Borg's peak was about as good as Rafa's on clay - but again, we're talking 331 matches vs. 541 for Rafa.

Below those guys you have "garden variety" ATG clay players like Lendl, Djokovic, Vilas, Wilander, etc. I think this is the level we can potentially hope to see from Alcaraz (or possibly Someone Else, if he's as good on clay as we hope he'll be). Meaning, guys who win multiple Roland Garros titles, and a handful of clay Masters, and double-digit titles on clay.

The next tier would be guys like Roger on clay, Nastase, Muster, etc: what we could call lesser great clay players. I think Tsitsipas, Zverev (or Thiem) could have been on this level, but for various reasons never got there. This might also be the level we can hope to see from Sinner.

As you say, Alcaraz is the only guy who figures to be a truly great clay player. I think Sinner could get there - or at least be good enough to win a RG or two. Really, we haven't seen peak Sinner on clay yet. He had that dip last year that encapsulated clay season and he's get to get past a SF at any clay big title. The next candidate is Fonzie, but that's jumping the gun. I don't see clay greatness from anyone else. Yet.

Ruud is a really good player and a top 5 clay player, but let's face it - he's 0-6 in big title finals and is really the kind of player that will only win a big title by default; that is, if none of the very best players are there and/or playing well. He's kind of a micro-Ferrer.

When I look at the current field, I see a bunch of guys who I could see surprising and winning Roland Garros. I think Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic are still the top three favorites--and probably in that order--but all with big question marks for this year. Zverev and Tsitsipas are next on paper, but they are both head-cases. The next group gets interesting, because you have a bunch of guys who could surprise and sneak it out: Berrettini, Rune, Musetti, Ruud. Who knows, maybe even someone like Cerundolo. The draw would really have to open up for him, though, as I think all those mentioned above--plus a few others like Rublev, Fils, maybe even Fonzie, have a better chance.

Right now my personal RG rankings are:

1. Alcaraz
2. Sinner
3. Djokovic
4. Zverev
5. Rune
6. Berrettini
7. Ruud
8. Tsitsipas
9. Musetti
10. Fils

But this could change.

p.s. Not sure why I have Berrettini so high...I guess I just haven't shaken the feeling that he's one good run from being a serious Slam contender. I'm still not sure he's back to his 2021 level, or if he'll ever get there. Dude is less than a year away from 30...

I think we need a thread for gaming potential for Roland Garros. I don't agree with your list, exactly. Or anyway, there are some clay courters who deserve a shout. Why NOT Cerundolo, if you think RG is so ripe for a new winner? It will be interesting to see how the next month shakes out, with injuries and changing fortunes.

 

[mrzz]

Why NOT Cerundolo, if you think RG is so ripe for a new winner?

Say hello for the Cerùndolo paradox. The better clay courter I think someone is (I mean, among non major winners), more certain I am he won't get even close to winning RG. Doesn't make any sense, don't ask me why, but I simply cannot help it.

By the way I know you were replying to @El Dude and I just jumped in.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Stop The Hate regarding my Fransisco you all know I am trying to arrange a 2 for One Shrink session with my Italian Musetti
I believe one day he will be a RG slam winner ( maybe not in my lifetime)

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

As Jelanafan says, we're mostly agreeing on all of these things, but I think J and I are more discussing the next years to come. A firewall of one is not that impenetrable. There are top guys, but they are fallible. Yes, I think we have to get over the era of the big 3. What looks good right now isn't guaranteeing results tomorrow. Therefore, all of the tournaments and maybe the Slams seem more up-for-grabs.

But Alcaraz is a great HC player. Borg had a short career, and only played the AO once. I don't know his overall record on HCs, but I don't see the two as an immediate comparison. I could look into that. On court, they're polar opposites. The Borg-Nadal comparison is still better.

I believe EL Dude said a few weeks ago, this year 'will be a sorting out year' for players, I happen to agree with him.
We have been spoilt by the big 3, comparing current players to the big 3 is just human nature, nothing stays stat in our game
I agree with your thoughts Moxie the Borg - Nadal comparison is still better.
Alcaraz when winning a HC on a fast hard court this year, yes can play well on hard courts, the only thing missing is the AO in his trophy cabinet,

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Rune said he felt ' a little twist in his knee' when doing his warm up before his match earlier today against Cobolli, he did have the physio out early in the 1st set, probably better to retire, than push it, more tournaments to be played in the clay season before RG