Wimbledon Preview Talk

[Kieran]

So Stan is currently the Man. But already they're sweeping up the clay and putting it back into storage. Turn on your telly, it's summer, they've moved onto grass!

We have a longer break between Paris and Wimbledon, more warm up events for players if they need. But it's all about Wimbledon, not Stuttgart, Halle or Queens. So what's your view of Wimbledon, from a distance? Where do things stand? Is the world #1 going to be a little frazzled after the huge setback in Paris, and fall again defending his title?

Will Roger, the King of Grass for this era, find a late career resurgence and with shortened snippy points, seize an 8th title, and 18th?

Andy looks good now, doesn't he? I can't see anything other than last four, at least for him.

Maybe grass will be good for Rafa, if he has good warm-ups. Maybe he'll find a decent serve and be able to compete.

Nick, Grigor, Milos, and of course Stan and Tsonga, we have a few players we'll be watching to see if they can do well there, even in sniper-mode.

What's your expectations for the tournament that's simply known as, The Championships?

 

[brokenshoelace]

Prediction: Rafa will stink on grass.

 

[Kieran]

Prediction: Rafa will stink on grass.

Bold opening move, brother, the kinda post that could have this beneath it in five weeks:

^^bump

But he stunk on clay, and he stinked on hards before it, so maybe he'll go for his own calendar year slammed and stink on grass too... :cover

 

[Puppet Master]

I will post my actual prediction when the Wimbledon challenge thread comes out, but I can totally see a Fed-Murray final. I think Murray would take Djokovic out if they played in the semis. Rafa could have another horrific loss on the grass, but if he gets in the mix, who knows.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Prediction: Rafa will stink on grass.

Bold opening move, brother, the kinda post that could have this beneath it in five weeks:

^^bump

But he stunk on clay, and he stinked on hards before it, so maybe he'll go for his own calendar year slammed and stink on grass too... :cover

I'll be the first to bump this post. It's a win-win. I'm either right, or better yet, Nadal surprises us on grass.

 

[Kieran]

I suppose at Wimbledon this year, a bit of spotlight might fall on Grigor again, defending a semi-final spot from last year, but treading water ever since. 11th in the world, since his semi last year he hasn't done anything to make us think he's a player. Losing routinely to Monfils at the US Open only highlighted his deficiencies. No longer a calf, no longer a greenhorn, and even when he was, he wasn't one who shook up the world in any way that suggested he had a volcanic, irresistible desire to be the greatest. I fell for him a couple years back, fell out of love just as quick.

You know what we need? A Becker. A youngster with the balls, the smarts, the gall to bust the door down and grab something worth having. I don't buy the cliche that it's an old man's game nowadays. That's giving these goons an easy pass. Raonic too, he'll be feeling the heat this year. Remember last summer, he said he was gonna get angry? GRRRRRR! He was going to turn Incredible Hulk for a while, to expunge the timid show he put on in the Wimbo semi against Roger.

Good man, Milos, we're still waiting. :cover

Skipping these makeweights and phonies, we have to look elsewhere, but it's hugely improbable that a 20 year old can win Wimbledon, without a pedigree of big slam semis or finals. Isn't it? lot

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

i think Wimbledon will be a make or break moment for each one of our old Four individually (as i've said in the other thread i don't believe they'll make it back as a group).

the pressure on Rafa maybe the least, actually: if he falls early, it won't be a surprise anymore. if he gets deep, he'll re-enter the conversation, but only gradually. of course, a triumph or final would be something, but that seems like a long shot. i think for Rafa, the real moment of truth will be the USO. he has to show up strong there, or else he'll be in serious trouble (ranking wise as well, for next year).

Roger has a bunch of points to defend. he could do well, but if he doesn't, it's probably bye-bye #2 ranking.

Andy is growing stronger again, but he has yet to back it up with a decisive W some time soon. is wimbledon the place for it? i actually think it could be, but we'll see.

as for Novak - digesting the RG loss will be hard, but i have a feeling it'll strengthen his resolve, and make him more dangerous for SW19. because basically, that is what it's about for him: wanting it, and refusing to lose. game-wise, i've always had my doubts about Novak on grass. he definitely shouldn't be the best player there imo; but over the course of two weeks and so many sets, it comes down to other qualities as well. so he might do it. and if he does, it'll be a big one, making him a true dominator of 2015. if he doesn't, though, it might spell trouble (or at least, it'll mean that he's more like the #1s we had around 98-02, not a Fed/Rafa/Nole-dominator #1)

however, as Stan has shown, it's not entirely up to Novak anymore - and not Fed, Murray and of course Nadal either. we've got a lot of young and not-so-young players with the potential to beat anyone at a Slam, especially on grass. and as we've seen with Cilic, sometimes ousting ONE of the formerly big ones is enough to hoist up the trophy. so yeah, this one could be up for grabs for anyone.


also, does anyone have weighted wimbledon seeding scenarios already? of course, Stuttgart and even more so Halle/Queens will be important in deciding that, but i wonder if any overtakers in the relevant positions (#s 2, 4, 8) would be possible/likely.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think Murray will be a finalist this year. I am not sure of the other finalist and hope it is Fed though. If I am willing to drop my wishful thinking, I would say that the other finalist will be a
non-big-four member. I also expect Cilic to have a good showing here. I don't expect Stan to
do much at Wimby.

 

[El Dude]

The exciting thing is that anything could happen: because its Wimbledon, because its 2015, because...

Novak probably still remains the favorite, with Andy second and Roger a bit behind. After that, who knows. There are quite a few dark horse candidates: Stanimal, Kei, Milos, even Cilic could surprise (let us not forget the level he achieved last year at the US Open). Or can we even call Stan a dark horse anymore, considering he's won two of the last six Slams? But clearly Stan and Marin have opened the door; perhaps the most likely candidate to step through next would be Kei or Raonic, at least at Wimbledon.

I also wouldn't count Rafa out. Yes, he hasn't made it to the second week since...2011! But one can only imagine what he's thinking about Roland Garros. Is he disheartened and just going through the motions until he gets a clean start next year? Is he dreaming of prancing on the beaches of Mallorca with Xisca (or is that me?!)? Or is there a smoldering deep within his soul that is going burst forth, like the Red Bull from The Last Unicorn?

As for Grigor, I'm losing hope. He's got the talent to be a Slam winner but probably not the drive. But if he's going to break through and win one, Wimbledon might be it. He remains a dark horse candidate, but more in line with Berdych and Tsonga than the names above. Speaking of which, Tsonga and Berdych remain dangerous, but I'm getting the sense that neither will ever win a major. But they must look at Stan and think, "Hey, just a couple years ago I was better than that guy!"

As for needing a Becker, take a gander at the rankings thread - I posted a list of young players in the top 100. The list is getting longer and younger. These guys are moving up and at some point one of them is going to surprise and take a title. Whether it is one of the Australian Ks, Kyrgios or Kokkinakis, or Borna Coric, or young Alex Zverev or someone else...who knows. My money would be on Coric, though. I think they'll all be good, but my gut says he's going to be the best of that group. But I think the young guns are just getting into position this year, that next year they'll take the tour by storm and we'll somewhat regularly be seeing one of them dispatch the veteran top 10 players.

 

[Carol]

I "love" to see those bad predictions for Rafa on grass, maybe it's going to help him more than we think
I rather to see what is going on these next weeks, who is playing better or worse and hope to see something diferent. Clay season is over

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Clay season is over

A sign of modern times. Rafa fans are happy that the clay season is over. :snicker

 

[Carol]

Clay season is over

A sign of modern times. Rafa fans are happy that the clay season is over. :snicker

Yep, I said the the same when the HC finished but I hope to say something diferent about the grass or the 2015. Well, it will depend on how he's going to play uzzled

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

I think Murray will be a finalist this year. I am not sure of the other finalist and hope it is Fed though. If I am willing to drop my wishful thinking, I would say that the other finalist will be a
non-big-four member. I also expect Cilic to have a good showing here. I don't expect Stan to
do much at Wimby.

yeah, grass has never been Stan's strong suit, and i can't see that changing. Cilic? dunno, maybe. he hasn't had consistently good results there, but then again, he hasn't had consistent results anywhere.

again, i really feel it's up for grabs. then on the other hand, i could also see a Nole-Murray final - i think they should both realize that it's beginning to be now or never for them on the path to "all-time legend" (Nole) or "somewhat great player" (Murray).

 

[DarthFed]

One of Roger's last legit chances, no question about that. I think he will be fine on grass, hoping he doesn't have to go through both Murray and Djokovic. As it stands now I'd have Murray as the slight favorite for this title with Nole and Fed just behind. The bookies will undoubtedly have Nole well ahead of the rest but I don't see it that way.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

One of Roger's last legit chances, no question about that. I think he will be fine on grass, hoping he doesn't have to go through both Murray and Djokovic. As it stands now I'd have Murray as the slight favorite for this title with Nole and Fed just behind. The bookies will undoubtedly have Nole well ahead of the rest but I don't see it that way.

I agree. The best that could happen draw-wise for Fed is if Andy and Nole get drawn in the same half.

 

[Kieran]

One of Roger's last legit chances, no question about that. I think he will be fine on grass, hoping he doesn't have to go through both Murray and Djokovic. As it stands now I'd have Murray as the slight favorite for this title with Nole and Fed just behind. The bookies will undoubtedly have Nole well ahead of the rest but I don't see it that way.

Why would you have Murray as favourite?

 

[DarthFed]

^ He matches up very well on grass with Nole. Novak generally has the better serve...except when talking of this matchup on grass where Murray's big serve can earn more cheap points than Nole's and that weak 2nd serve is easier to get away with. Also Murray is playing very well this year, I don't see him letting up on grass which is his best surface. If it came down to Roger vs. Murray it'd be a tough one to call at this point. I guess Murray is at a disadvantage in that he will be seeded to face both Nole and Roger to win it and then who knows who might be getting Rafa in their qtr if he reaches it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Top 10 grass players based on the past 52 weeks performance on grass.

1. Novak Djokovic 1.000 1 7-0 .800 2 60-15
2. Grigor Dimitrov .900 1 9-1 .622 1 23-14
3. Roger Federer .900 1 9-1 .873 14 131-19
4. Roberto Bautista Agut .875 1 7-1 .769 1 10-3
5. Feliciano Lopez .857 1 12-2 .667 2 58-29
6. Nick Kyrgios .857 0 6-1 .857 0 6-1
7. Lleyton Hewitt .800 1 8-2 .771 8 128-38
8. Alexandr Dolgopolov .800 0 4-1 .542 0 13-11
9. Stan Wawrinka .778 0 7-2 .512 0 21-20
10. Leonardo Mayer .750 0 3-1 .429 0 9-12

Interesting to note that Andy is not on the list, but Stan is on it. But Andy is #2 in career on grass and Fed is #1 in career on grass.

 

[Front242]

Clay season is over

A sign of modern times. Rafa fans are happy that the clay season is over. :snicker

2nd or 3rd round of Wimbledon. Grass season is over

 

[Front242]

Top 10 grass players based on the past 52 weeks performance on grass.

1. Novak Djokovic 1.000 1 7-0 .800 2 60-15
2. Grigor Dimitrov .900 1 9-1 .622 1 23-14
3. Roger Federer .900 1 9-1 .873 14 131-19
4. Roberto Bautista Agut .875 1 7-1 .769 1 10-3
5. Feliciano Lopez .857 1 12-2 .667 2 58-29
6. Nick Kyrgios .857 0 6-1 .857 0 6-1
7. Lleyton Hewitt .800 1 8-2 .771 8 128-38
8. Alexandr Dolgopolov .800 0 4-1 .542 0 13-11
9. Stan Wawrinka .778 0 7-2 .512 0 21-20
10. Leonardo Mayer .750 0 3-1 .429 0 9-12

Interesting to note that Andy is not on the list, but Stan is on it. But Andy is #2 in career on grass and Fed is #1 in career on grass.

Makes me sick to my stomach to see RBA - Really Bloody Awful listed at number 4. The ultimate pusher.