Is Federer safe for London (WTF)?

[coban]

Im considering flying over and getting tickets, but i'll only go if The Great Maestro is there. Can anyone lay out the different scenarios?

 

[britbox]

I think he's reasonably safe Coban, but one of the statmasters - Reddy, El Dude or Gamesetandmath will crunch the numbers no doubt and give you a better picture.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Since it is this years points that determine it, he holds his own destiny, with a little help from Andy maybe...I was in favor of him shutting it down after the Open but obviously he is not going to do that. I think(hope) he will make it.

 

[El Dude]

Here's the race to london rankings:

http://live-tennis.eu/race

As you can see, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and Ferrer have already qualified. But then you have a bit of a cluster*uck:

5. Berdych 3575
6. Del Potro 3365
7. Federer 3055
8. Wawrinka 2970
9. Gasquet 2815
10. Tsonga 2605
11. Raonic 2425

Haas is another 400 points behind, and even Tsonga and Raonic seem like long-shots.

One thing to keep in mind is Murray's back. I don't know what the recovery is expected to be, but if misses the WTF then Federer's chances increase substantially.

The bottom line is that Roger needs to out-play all but three other players for the next few tournaments. At this point I'm not comfortable predicting what he'll do. Berdych and Del Potro are probably shoe-ins, but then you have Wawrinka and Gasquet very close to Roger, who needs to out-play at least one of the two (unless Murray is out). Roger SHOULD be fine, but he's been so erratic that you just never know. If had to bet, though, I like his chances.

 

[Moxie]

One thing is that Iona tells us Andy is not going to the WTF. He's on complete bed rest for at least another week. Also, it's in a British paper, link here, it says that Murray is "out for the season."

I'm sure Roger will make the cut.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Except for Roger, all the others who are in contention for a place in WTF are
playing this week, either in China or in Japan. In the mean time, I read reports
that Roger is having family time in Dubai currently. He looks relaxed and does
not seem worried.

At the beginning of the year, there was some kind of tussle between
Basel Tournament Organizers and Roger's Camp over appearance fee and
other issues. There was a threat of Roger skipping and/or boycotting Basel
Tournament. One might remember that Basel was not in Roger's Schedule
at the beginning of the year and was added only in April/May. The way things
look at the moment, he does not have the luxury of skipping Basel even if
he wanted to (assuming he wants to be in WTF). What goes around, comes
around.

 

[DarthFed]

With Murray likely missing London it is almost a lock. It is still likely even if Murray plays WTF.

 

[Front242]

Except for Roger, all the others who are in contention for a place in WTF are
playing this week, either in China or in Japan. In the mean time, I read reports
that Roger is having family time in Dubai currently. He looks relaxed and does
not seem worried.

At the beginning of the year, there was some kind of tussle between
Basel Tournament Organizers and Roger's Camp over appearance fee and
other issues. There was a threat of Roger skipping and/or boycotting Basel
Tournament. One might remember that Basel was not in Roger's Schedule
at the beginning of the year and was added only in April/May. The way things
look at the moment, he does not have the luxury of skipping Basel even if
he wanted to (assuming he wants to be in WTF). What goes around, comes
around.

Given his lack of points and as he's defending final points there, I'm sure he'll play Basel.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Except for Roger, all the others who are in contention for a place in WTF are
playing this week, either in China or in Japan. In the mean time, I read reports
that Roger is having family time in Dubai currently. He looks relaxed and does
not seem worried.

At the beginning of the year, there was some kind of tussle between
Basel Tournament Organizers and Roger's Camp over appearance fee and
other issues. There was a threat of Roger skipping and/or boycotting Basel
Tournament. One might remember that Basel was not in Roger's Schedule
at the beginning of the year and was added only in April/May. The way things
look at the moment, he does not have the luxury of skipping Basel even if
he wanted to (assuming he wants to be in WTF). What goes around, comes
around.

Given his lack of points and as he's defending final points there, I'm sure he'll play Basel.

Yes, he will play. But, you missed the point of my message. The tournament
organizers and Fed's camp were playing hard ball with each other at the beginning
of the year. Now Fed's camp has lost the leverage and cannot threaten to quit.

 

[Front242]

Except for Roger, all the others who are in contention for a place in WTF are
playing this week, either in China or in Japan. In the mean time, I read reports
that Roger is having family time in Dubai currently. He looks relaxed and does
not seem worried.

At the beginning of the year, there was some kind of tussle between
Basel Tournament Organizers and Roger's Camp over appearance fee and
other issues. There was a threat of Roger skipping and/or boycotting Basel
Tournament. One might remember that Basel was not in Roger's Schedule
at the beginning of the year and was added only in April/May. The way things
look at the moment, he does not have the luxury of skipping Basel even if
he wanted to (assuming he wants to be in WTF). What goes around, comes
around.

Given his lack of points and as he's defending final points there, I'm sure he'll play Basel.

Yes, he will play. But, you missed the point of my message. The tournament
organizers and Fed's camp were playing hard ball with each other at the beginning
of the year. Now Fed's camp has lost the leverage and cannot threaten to quit.

Yeah, got that part too. Sorry if it read like I didn't

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

feds playing in 2 masters and a atp 500, that's 2'500 rank points..

i'll wager the fedster can scrape enough points together to fend off those fiendish upstarts :devil

or use his magical powers to make the others lose a bit..:emperor: lot

 

[Front242]

feds playing in 2 masters and a atp 500, that's 2'500 rank points..

It would be if he won all 3 but doubtful. Very doubtful Nice new smilies

 

[GameSetAndMath]

feds playing in 2 masters and a atp 500, that's 2'500 rank points..

It would be if he won all 3 but doubtful. Very doubtful Nice new smilies

Actually, Wawrinka has a chance to surpass Fed after Beijing. The worst case
situation for Fed would be different contenders who are chasing him doing well
in different tournaments and surpassing him. If the same contender consistently
does well, it won't be a problem.

Fed is now at 7, after Beijing possibly 8. After Shanghai possibly 9,
if he does poorly there (which is possible considering he is playing
after a long time and with a possible second coming of the 98" racquet).
He cannot afford to go down any further, even after accounting for
Murray's open slot.

Things will get even more interesting when the draw pits Fed against
one of these contenders (say Wawrinka, Gasquet, Tsonga or Milos) in the
upcoming tournaments.

If nothing else, Fed is giving me a reason to watch the fall tournaments
more closely.

Having said all these, I still believe he will make it. But, it is going to
be a close call.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

The end of a player's career is often the most interesting stage, because it is less predictable. No longer is Federer a virtual lock to make quarter-finals/semi-finals. Lots of range in the results now.

 

[isabelle]

Here's the race to london rankings:

http://live-tennis.eu/race

As you can see, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and Ferrer have already qualified. But then you have a bit of a cluster*uck:

5. Berdych 3575
6. Del Potro 3365
7. Federer 3055
8. Wawrinka 2970
9. Gasquet 2815
10. Tsonga 2605
11. Raonic 2425

Haas is another 400 points behind, and even Tsonga and Raonic seem like long-shots.

One thing to keep in mind is Murray's back. I don't know what the recovery is expected to be, but if misses the WTF then Federer's chances increase substantially.

The bottom line is that Roger needs to out-play all but three other players for the next few tournaments. At this point I'm not comfortable predicting what he'll do. Berdych and Del Potro are probably shoe-ins, but then you have Wawrinka and Gasquet very close to Roger, who needs to out-play at least one of the two (unless Murray is out). Roger SHOULD be fine, but he's been so erratic that you just never know. If had to bet, though, I like his chances.

4785 pts are needed to qualify

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

^ I am not sure how there can be a point cut-off to qualify. If everyone from 5 to 12 suck till the end of the year and nobody from behind pushes them, someone should be able to qualify with less points than 4785, no?

 

[El Dude]

Maybe the points to qualify is a formula based upon remaining points available. A player can still make it with fewer points, but that point total is a guarantee.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here's the race to london rankings:

http://live-tennis.eu/race

As you can see, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and Ferrer have already qualified. But then you have a bit of a cluster*uck:

5. Berdych 3575
6. Del Potro 3365
7. Federer 3055
8. Wawrinka 2970
9. Gasquet 2815
10. Tsonga 2605
11. Raonic 2425

Haas is another 400 points behind, and even Tsonga and Raonic seem like long-shots.

One thing to keep in mind is Murray's back. I don't know what the recovery is expected to be, but if misses the WTF then Federer's chances increase substantially.

The bottom line is that Roger needs to out-play all but three other players for the next few tournaments. At this point I'm not comfortable predicting what he'll do. Berdych and Del Potro are probably shoe-ins, but then you have Wawrinka and Gasquet very close to Roger, who needs to out-play at least one of the two (unless Murray is out). Roger SHOULD be fine, but he's been so erratic that you just never know. If had to bet, though, I like his chances.

4785 pts are needed to qualify

The points required to qualify is not a fixed figure, it will be changing. As another
tournament gets completed, it will decrease. 4785 is the current cut off as no matter
which way all the remaining matches in all the tournaments go, it is guaranteed that
no more than eight different players can have points of 4785 amd above. This cut off
figure will decrease after Beijing/Tokyo tournaments of this week and it will decrease
even further after the Shanghai Masters.

Based on past experience, the real final cut off will be roughly 3500 or so.
But, this figure is not fixed either. This is just a guess.

 

[Denis]

With Murray likely missing London it is almost a lock. It is still likely even if Murray plays WTF.

This. I can't see Gasquet and Tsonga and Wawrinka all do better than Roger. But his form is BAD and both Gasquet and Tsonga are good indoors players. Don't know about Wawrinka, but he might get some more points during the HC events.

If Murray does play it becomes a different story though...

Why is he not playing one of the 500 events this week?

 

[Front242]

With Murray likely missing London it is almost a lock. It is still likely even if Murray plays WTF.

This. I can't see Gasquet and Tsonga and Wawrinka all do better than Roger. But his form is BAD and both Gasquet and Tsonga are good indoors players. Don't know about Wawrinka, but he might get some more points during the HC events.

If Murray does play it becomes a different story though...

Why is he not playing one of the 500 events this week?

Good to see you, Denisovich. Murray just had minor back surgery and is still bed ridden for another week and supposedly taking the rest of the year off. A shame but it makes sense really to aim to come back at full strength for the AO hopefully pain free and able to train at proper intensity.