Final Slam Counts - Update, end of 2018

[El Dude]

So what do you think? The Indian Summer of Fedal seems to be over (with maybe a dead-cat bounce or two to come?), with Novak ascending. But things change quickly. Can Rafa return to form? Does Roger have one more push in him? How long can Novak hold the fort? Can Andy come back? Stan, Cilic, del Potro?

I'll go out on a limb and make some predictions, with the obvious caveat that no one has a clue and it is all just fun and games. Some predictions:

1) As I said elsewhere, I think we finally start seeing cracks in the Holy Trinity's armor this time next year - either at Wimbledon or the US Open. There will be an upset, and 2020 will see the barn doors blown open, with Next Gen ruling the roost by 2021.

2) Predicted final Slam counts:

20 Federer
18 Rafa
17 Novak
3 Andy, Stan
2 del Potro
1 Cilic

I'd like to see Roger win one more, but I think it unlikely. That's one more for Rafa, three more for Novak, and one more for del Potro. Andy will never win another Slam imo. Cilic is about 50-50, but I put one because I think he'll be edged out between the current greats and Next Gen.

3) 2019 Slam winners: Novak x2, Rafa, Someone else - del Potro, a Next Gen, or some surprise winner.

4) 2020 Slam winners: Novak, maybe del Potro, maybe Thiem, at least one Next Gen. So that means no more Big Four Slams after 2020, the year Roger turns 39, Rafa 34, and Novak 33.

Maybe I'm underestimating the Bigger Three. There's also a scenario where Rafa and Novak continue winning a Slam a year into the 2020s. But I don't think they'll do what Roger is doing, that Next Gen will finally start pushing them out starting late next year, or at least 2020. I could see Novak and even Rafa reaching a final or two in 2021 and beyond, but that's it.

OK, your turn. Come on, put your (proverbial) balls on the table.

 

[atttomole]

Nadal will be able to come back because tendinitis requires some rest and he will be fine. He should be able to play at the same level that he has been playing this year. Not sure about Federer, but I hope he can get back his game and some strength to reach grand slam finals. Djokovic is likely to dominate for another 2 to 3 years, as long as he stays with Vajda.

 

[Denis]

Well this is all crystal ball stuff with a lot of unknowns, but I guess we can make some estimates about the remaining potential.

Fed is 100% done. Stays at 20.

Nads will win at least another 3 RG IMO, might sneak out another slam elsewhere.

Djokovic can dominate the next 2-3 years, so has the potential of winning 6-9 slams. This is with current knowledge. If some prodigy steps up then it’s a different situation.

It will be close.

 

[El Dude]

Denis, so you're predicting:

Roger 20
Rafa 20-21
Novak 20-23

!!!

 

[Denis]

Denis, so you're predicting:

Roger 20
Rafa 20-21
Novak 20-23

!!!

It is obvious that Novak still has a long way to go and that works in fedals favour, but he has the biggest range of the three currently.

If you pin me down to a number I’d say they all end at 20 with Novak claiming GOAT status due to all the tie breakers (h2h, masters, Nole slam etc).

 

[El Dude]

I admire your optimism, Denis, even if I think you are a tad overly optimistic. Your projection seems based upon the view of the "changeless present" - that is, how things are is how things will remain indefinitely.

One thing that the last two years, going back to mid-2016, has reminded me is that things are constantly changing. After the 2016 RG it seemed like Novak would never lose again and then flailed for almost two years. Who would have thought Roger and Rafa would come back like they have? And now Novak is surging again, after many people (although not myself) thought he'd never win another Slam?

Right now Novak seems like he could, as you say, dominate for 2-3 years. But not only would that be a huge historical anomaly, but there are just too many things that can go wrong (or right, depending upon how you look at it).

But I do agree with you that Novak's is the most variable, or at least he has the potential to win the most. Rafa is also variable: he could be stuck at 17, or he could win 3 or 4 more. I see ranges being more like:

Roger: 0-1
Rafa: 0-4
Novak: 1-6

While I'm sticking with 0-1-3, I wouldn't be surprised to see more.

 

[Denis]

^ I am not being optimistic. As I wrote, I am basing things on where it currently stands.

You seem to be in fantasy land, as you think that in the coming 3 years (12 slams) only 4 will go to the Big 3. Who on earth is going to win the other 8(!)?

Tsitsipas? Maybe. Completely unproven. Thiem? Zverev? Lol.

 

[El Dude]

I'm calling you optimistic because you think a 31-year old is going to win 6-9 more Slams. Isn't that optimistic?

Actually, Novak has already won 2 Slams after turning 31, so you think he'll win 8-11 Slams at age 31 and older, which is 5-8 more than Roger has, or 2.7x to 3.7x as many!

I'm not saying that a player can't win more than Roger has after 31, and my prediction of Novak puts him at +2 more; but it just seems unlikely that it will be that many more.

So again, your predictions for Slams after 31:

Roger: 3 (already done)
Novak: 8-11 (has 2, so 5-8 more)
Rafa: 6-7 (has 3 already, so 3-4 more)

 

[Denis]

Well Fed only stopped winning slams because the other 2 were winning them. He met his match and his age is now truly kicking in (no shame at 37). Currently I don't see any reason why Djokovic cannot keep this up for another 2-3 years, so yes I think he can reach 20.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

Fed -21-22
Nad-17-18
Djok-19-20

 

[DarthFed]

Well Fed only stopped winning slams because the other 2 were winning them. He met his match and his age is now truly kicking in (no shame at 37). Currently I don't see any reason why Djokovic cannot keep this up for another 2-3 years, so yes I think he can reach 20.

This totally assumes that the Next Gen is worthless for 2-3 more years and that's where you are being too optimistic. Also age kicked in long before age 37 for Roger, and it's already kicked in for Rafa and probably Djokovic too. They have all benefitted heavily from a lost generation of guys who never were good enough to be elite. There are clear signs that the new generation is not going to be so helpless. They are nothing now but I don't think it stays that way for 2 more years let alone 3.

All three of Fedalovic have had resurgences in part due to the fact they had time off from injury and/or sucking. I don't think they can go out and dominate 2-3 years in a row like they could in their mid 20's.

 

[Denis]

This totally assumes that the Next Gen is worthless for 2-3 more years and that's where you are being too optimistic. Also age kicked in long before age 37 for Roger, and it's already kicked in for Rafa and probably Djokovic too. They have all benefitted heavily from a lost generation of guys who never were good enough to be elite. There are clear signs that the new generation is not going to be so helpless. They are nothing now but I don't think it stays that way for 2 more years let alone 3.

All three of Fedalovic have had resurgences in part due to the fact they had time off from injury and/or sucking. I don't think they can go out and dominate 2-3 years in a row like they could in their mid 20's.

Yes, I said as much at the beginning. At this point in time, I can't see any of them winning a slam anytime soon. Perhaps I need to see it to believe it. When it happens, we can reopen this discussion and change predictions. I don't see it at the moment.

 

[herios]

I'm calling you optimistic because you think a 31-year old is going to win 6-9 more Slams. Isn't that optimistic?

Actually, Novak has already won 2 Slams after turning 31, so you think he'll win 8-11 Slams at age 31 and older, which is 5-8 more than Roger has, or 2.7x to 3.7x as many!

I'm not saying that a player can't win more than Roger has after 31, and my prediction of Novak puts him at +2 more; but it just seems unlikely that it will be that many more.

So again, your predictions for Slams after 31:

Roger: 3 (already done)
Novak: 8-11 (has 2, so 5-8 more)
Rafa: 6-7 (has 3 already, so 3-4 more)

While I am not in the same camp as Denis is regarding Novak's future slam count, I think you are too conservative because the historical numbers.
Slams won by 30+ players used to be a rarity, now starts to be more the norm. Who won the last 9 slams? All players in the 30+ club. And if I go back 3 more slams to take in consideration all slams in 2016 as well, those were won by players aged 28-29 ( Novak AO and RG in 2016 and Andy Wimbledon 2016).
This is another reflection of the prolonged plateau and career at the higher level for contemporary tennis players.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Right now it's

Federer 20
Nadal 17
Djokovic 14
Sampras 14

I'd say the final all-time list is going to be

Federer 20
Nadal 18
Djokovic 16
Sampras 14

Federer I think is done winning slams his age is finally catching up,
Nadal I would hope he can win more than one but this new injury has me freaked out, his bad luck never ends,
Djokovic will win a couple more but not "dominate" for years as some are right now hyping things,
Sampras well he's retired

All these records will be broken one day by a new champion (kind of how Serena did it on the women's tour) but the one record that will stand the test of time will be Rafa on clay & RG, no man will ever dominate a surface and/or a single slam like that.

I really feel that if Rafa is healthy for years to come and this isn't a big setback that he can get the all-time record. But players like Thiem, Zverev, etc. who have been successful on clay can start all of a sudden causing him problems even at RG, so nothing is guaranteed. Djokovic also has had some trouble with the new generation of big hitters like Zverev and Kyrgios, many of the younger players can overpower him.

That being said, the fact that Federer easily accumulated half of his slams in the weak transitional era at the end Sampras/Agassi and before Nadal/Djokovic will definitely keep the GOAT debate alive for years and years to come. It's not only about quantity but also about quality.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I feel like of anyone the one on the cusp is Thiem if we are talking about an outsider making a move at a slam. It will be interesting to see. He is one of the few with wins over Nadal on clay. I think he could be a surprise somewhere if he puts it together. It might take a few pieces falling into place like Djokovic losing beforehand, but I feel it possible.

 

[Mastoor]

Are you aware that pass this month when both del Potro and Čilić turn 30, we won’t have any grand slam champions younger than 30?

 

[El Dude]

Yes, I am aware of that fact.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Yes, I am aware of that fact.

what?

 

[herios]

Are you aware that pass this month when both del Potro and Čilić turn 30, we won’t have any grand slam champions younger than 30?

Yes we are. That

Yes, I am aware of that fact.

LOL

 

[crystalfire]

I'm calling you optimistic because you think a 31-year old is going to win 6-9 more Slams. Isn't that optimistic?

Actually, Novak has already won 2 Slams after turning 31, so you think he'll win 8-11 Slams at age 31 and older, which is 5-8 more than Roger has, or 2.7x to 3.7x as many!

I'm not saying that a player can't win more than Roger has after 31, and my prediction of Novak puts him at +2 more; but it just seems unlikely that it will be that many more.

So again, your predictions for Slams after 31:

Roger: 3 (already done)
Novak: 8-11 (has 2, so 5-8 more)
Rafa: 6-7 (has 3 already, so 3-4 more)

I just want to say that age is just a number and his defense and athleticism in USO final were ridiculous and theres no reason to think those will get worse for at least 2-3 more years. nole seems to be in way better shape at 31 than federer was. in which case as long as hes healthy potentially all the slams are on his racket lol.