Dominance of the Big Four, revisited

[El Dude]

I put together this chart back in April, and was going through some files and found it and decided to complete it. It offers a very telling picture:

I've got to admit, I'm kind of ready for some new blood - a dark-horse to come in and upset things a bit. I don't really see much changing in 2014, but maybe we can hope for at least one big tournament going to someone else.

 

[Kieran]

Good stuff, El Dude, and I agree: a little diversity in 2014 would bring another dimension to things...

 

[tented]

You have a row for Madrid/Hamburg, but list Shanghai by itself. It should be Shanghai/Madrid.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

In 2003, all four grand slams were won by four different players. It later occurred
only in 2012 when each of the big four got one each. I was thinking parity has been
reached and this (4 different GS winners) will keep happening for a while. But, it
lasted only one year. In 2013, again we had one player winning more than one slam.

What do you guys think? Will we have 4 different winners (big 4 or otherwise)
in 2014? I expect both AO and FO to be retained by Novak and Nadal. Murray or
Federer getting Wimby. Will JMDP rise to the occassion and win USO thus
completing the set of 4 different winners.

 

[Moxie]

In 2003, all four grand slams were won by four different players. It later occurred
only in 2012 when each of the big four got one each. I was thinking parity has been
reached and this (4 different GS winners) will keep happening for a while. But, it
lasted only one year. In 2013, again we have multiple slam winners.

What do you guys think? Will we have 4 different winners (big 4 or otherwise)
in 2014? I expect both AO and FO to be retained by Novak and Nadal. Murray or
Federer getting Wimby. Will JMDP rise to the occassion and win USO thus
completing the set of 4 different winners.

Good question. I was going to ask, who might at least get a MS 1000 beyond the top 3-4.

@El Dude: thanks for laying that out. There's a lot of conversation material in there.

 

[Moxie]

Clearly, the best option outside of the top 4 for snagging a Slam is Del Portro.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

For ease of future reference, I am going to coin the term ANTI-GS to refer to the situation
where all four grand slams in an year are won by four different players. Of course, if somebody
comes up with a better term, I will substitute that.

 

[El Dude]

For the sake of comparison, here's a similar chart with 1990-2003 - the "Sampragassi" era - covering the 14-year span in which Sampras and Agassi won Grand Slam tournaments.

I've used colors for those players with 3+ Slams, which include Sampras (14), Lendl (8), Agassi (8), Becker (6), Edberg (6), Courier (4), and Kuerten (3) - and of course Federer (17) towards the end there.

A picture speaks a thousand words, but its worth mentioning that there was a much more diverse field of winners - not only many more Slam winners, but a large number of players who won multiple big tournaments (and a few I'd never heard of before doing this research...e.g. Cerretero).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Based on Dude's Second Chart in 14 years from 1990 to 2003, AGS happened in 8
years (or more than 50% of the time).

As you can see from first chart in 10 years from 2004 to 2013, AGS happened just
once (or just 10% of the time).

So, it appears that AGS is also becoming a rare event although not as rare as CGS.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Based on the first chart, "others" have won 24 events out of a possible 14 * 10 = 140 events.
So, "others" won less 20% of big events during the past 10 years.

 

[El Dude]

And its worse if you look only at the last three years - only 1 of 42 tournaments, or 2.3%.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

And its worse if you look only at the last three years - only 1 of 42 tournaments, or 2.3%.

And even that not by an outsider. It was by Ferrer who was always on the fringe of
big four.

 

[Moxie]

So forget the next Major: who wins the next MS 1000 outside of the big 4? (And for bonus points, which ones?)

 

[GameSetAndMath]

So forget the next Major: who wins the next MS 1000 outside of the big 4? (And for bonus points, which ones?)

That is an easy question. Answer is JMDP. I don't know which one though.

 

[tented]

Clearly, the best option outside of the top 4 for snagging a Slam is Del Portro.

So forget the next Major: who wins the next MS 1000 outside of the big 4? (And for bonus points, which ones?)

That is an easy question. Answer is JMDP. I don't know which one though.

I understand the inclination to pick him, but he's been tagged as being the next big winner so many times, and it never works out. It may wind up being JMDP, but I keep thinking about the fact that he's never been in another GS final, and has only ever been in three Masters finals, and lost them all. I'm just not feeling it. It's an I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it situation.

 

[Kieran]

Totally agree, T. We've so many players catch a fair wind to nowhere. DP is greatly talented but funny enough, his relative success at the end of this season only worked against him in my eyes. I saw so how limited he is at the higher level and how unable he was to rise to the occasion.

He has it all inside him, but I doubt that he'll be able to bring it out...

 

[El Dude]

JMDP is the logical choice, but the logical often isn't the actual one to take the prize.

I'd love to say Grigor Dimitrov, but its hard imagining him beating one of the elites in a final. I'd really like to be able to say otherwise because I enjoy watching him play and have a preference for the smooth, graceful style, but I just don't see it...yet. I do think he'll start completing with the near-elites and end up vying for a spot in the top 10, either in 2014 or 2015, but he might not snag a big tournament for another 2-3 years.

I'm thinking Jerzy is the one to break through first and win a big tournament. He seems to have the necessary skills and fire, he just needs to get hot at the right time.

But it really could be another 3-4 years until that dominance is significantly broken up. Maybe two or three big tournaments are stolen away in the 2014-15 span, but I don't think it will be until 2016 or 2017 that we start seeing significant white on that chart above.

 

[Kieran]

That's true, El Dude, and interestingly both Rafa and Nole are heading into - or already in - the years of relative decline, Murray too, and yet they may still Hoover up the next 8 slams between them. Or even more. There isn't anyone of their own generation who seems likely to disturb them, and no-one even younger who looks to have the game or brain to shove them out of the way. It's great for the current Greats, but there's something fairly damning about it too. I never thought the ATP tour would become like the WTA in the 80's...

 

[Front242]

We need Robin Soderling back and back at top level to cause upsets 'cos no one else seems capable. Sorry, I forgot Robredo, Stakhovsky, Rosol and Darcis.

 

[Kieran]

That's a good point, Front, because upsets have increased as Fedal go into decline (of sorts) but the Big Four Inc. are still protecting their quadropoly - is that the right word for a monopoly split four ways?

What we need now is somebody to cause the ultimate upset and go all the way...