Bert's betting previews

[Bert]

This is a new thread that I am starting for everyone looking for advices on bets. I will post (will try to do this everyday) my selection of the most interesting bets of the day.

I am writing a blog (here) in which I explain my strategy, objectives and performance more in details but to make it short, my objective is to win between 60 and 65 % of my bets for a minimum return on the invested money of 10%. I usually do not take odds less than 1.5.

I started this blog 7 weeks ago with an intial budget of 100$ and the balance now is approx. 146 $ having made 224 bets, won 61% of them for a ROI of 11%.

On this thread I will analyse few games everyday, the ones I would go for, the ones I would avoid, feel free to leave your comments too so everyone can find the information required to make an opinion.

Talk soon.

 

[Bert]

So here we go with the first betting preview : Monte-Carlo

There are few interesting games today :

1. Paire vs. Cervantes :
Paire's records this season are not good, defeating only one Top50 player and losing against 6 players outside the Top 50 for a total of 7 wins and 10 losses.
Cervantes is a clay specialist, ranked #56 and can definitely give a lot of troubles to Paire who is clearly missing confidence.
Paire can be unpredictable so this may be a bit a bit risky but odds for Cervantes are approx. 2.45 so very good to take.

2. Herbert vs. Pella :
Opposition between Pella's clay game and Herbert's serve/volley style.
Herbert didn't beat any Top 50 players this season and he is clearly not on a surface that makes his game shine.
Pella had some good wins on clay this season : Isner, Thiem, reaching the final in Rio and he is left handed which can give even more troubles to Herbert. He is the natural favourite player today.
Pella to win @1.5 looks good. Pella to win in 2 sets (2.33) may be a good pick too, looks a bit too risky for me as Herbert has played qualifications here and may have a better start than Pella.

3. Pouille vs. Mahut :
Mahut's record on clay are very bad (50w/69l in career) and this is Pouille's best surface.
Pouille had some good wins recently : Ferrer, Garcia-Lopez in Miami but lost on Jaziri in Guadalajara. Most of all, he lost twice against Mahut without winning a set. Both matches were tight 7/5 6/4 and 7/6 7/6 but there were indoors on a fast surface. On clay this may turn differently.
Pouille is given @ 1.5

4. Carreno-Busta vs. Robert :
Carreno is the clear favourite against the old French man. But 1.32 is a bit short to be taken. Better to look at alternate bets in my opinion such as Carreno in 2 sets (1.94).

The ones I would avoid :
Bellucci vs. Garcia-Lopez which can go both ways,players being very unpredictable recently.
Gasquet vs. Almagro : The logic says this one goes to Gasquet. But Almagro is a good clay player, he didn't play at his best recently but he can have good days... and in a good day he can beat Gasquet. So Gasquet @ 1.34 is too short.

Find my personal bets on my blog.

 

[britbox]

Good observations @Bert - some tricky ones in there.

 

[Bert]

Cervantes was unlucky yesterday losing after having had a match point. Pella didn't play so well and missed many break opportunities. Pouille defeated Mahut in 2sets and so did Carreno-Busta.

Some pretty picks today : Murray, Federer and Cuevas. Maybe better to go to alternate bets to make some money here
Tsonga and Goffin seem quite safe as well but odds are very short IMO and I don't feel very comfortable to take them as winner in 2 sets.

Fognini and Bautista Agut's odds are interesting. Fognini comes back from injury so he may be a bit slow to find the rythm back.

Then Verdasco-Delbonis, Karlovic-Sousa and Coric-Kohlschreiber are the perfect matches to go to alternate bets. Maybe 3 sets for Verdasco, a tie-break in Karlovic's match, number of games in Coric's one ?

Definitely avoid the other matches as they are unpredictable

More details here (for my first and maybe the last video )

 

[Bert]

I didn't expect Cuevas or Murray to go in 3 sets yesterday. Verdasco managed to take Delbonis and FOgnini collapsed after winning the 1st set scoring only 1 games in the two following sets. NOt sure if this was linked to his form or his mood

11 Matches today and 1 of them is clearly flashing as the one to avoid at all cost : Paire vs. Sousa. Two players playing quite bad these last months, very unpredictable. Paire saved a match point in the first round and seemed very tired or bored quite quickly. Stay away

All the other ones seem pretty clear with a well identified favourite. I don't think there will be any surprise here and may worth going for alternate bets.
The safest one may be Berdych who already played Dzumhur twice and won twice without losing a set. Interesting that both times he won at least one set with more than one break. Berdych winning with a handicap of -4.5 games looks therefore very appealing @ 1.63.
Goffin and Zverev may be taken as winners in 2 sets @ approx. 2 which is interesting if you feel confident.

I would be careful about Thiem. He had a problem with his foot just before the 1st round and struggled to start his match correctly. Not sure if this is solve and alternate bets may look a bit risky here.

Djokovic odds are really too small to be taken. Gasquet should win against Pouille but may be close. Monfils and Nadal should win as well but alternate bets look risky to me.

Raonic - Cuevas is interesting. Cuevas had an endless match yesterday. He is clearly in a good momentum on clay this season but may be a bit tired. Raonic is not the typical clay player but he is good enough to win this one comfortably especially if Cuevas is a bit under. Interesting to note that Raonic won easy their last match... on clay.

Good luck and if you want an idea of what I am going fro, have a look on my blog here.

 

[britbox]

Monfils looks the safest bet out there with a little bit of value.

 

[Bert]

Monfils looks the safest bet out there with a little bit of value.

Monfils is @ 1.13 or @ 1.46 for a win in 2 sets. Monfils to win with a handicap of -5.5 games @ 1.98

What are you going for @britbox ?

 

[britbox]

I bet on Monfils with Crownbet, $30 at 1.13 - for the standard win. I think he should win this comfortably. 13% return on a gimme tap-in IMO.

 

[britbox]

1.46 is good value too on straight sets. Although, Gael can go walkabout sometimes.

 

[Bert]

Thursday 14/04 :

Ok, for someone who didn't expect any surprise yesterday, I was all wrong. Djokovic beaten now, that opens the door for Federer and Monfils.

8 Matches today :

Murray - Paire : They played once at Hopman Cup, Murray won in 2 sets. Murray had a hard first round against Herbert in the first round, probably not playing his best since Australian Open. Paire won in two against Sousa but hard to call that a reference match. If Paire is in a good day, he can give some troubles to Murray but don't think he can win. Murray in 2 @1.56 or match in 3sets @3.15 may be the choice.

Raonic - Dzumhur : Both went in 3 sets yesterday. Raonic defeated Dzumhur in Miami 6/0 6/3. I think this may happen again today. Raonic in 2 @ 1.67 or less than 21.5 games @ 1.91 look appealing.

Simon - Wawrinka : Simon never defeated Wawrinka on clay. Wawrinka is given @ 1.42 or Simon @ 2.90. Make you choice.

Nadal - Thiem : Last match was won by Thiem in 3 sets. Nadal won in 2014 at the FRench Open in straight sets. Nadal is given as the clear favourite probably because of Thiem's injury. 3.20 seems high for Thiem. Match in 3 sets @ 2.55 may be good value. Thiem in 3 sets @ 6.75 too.

Federer - Bautista : Federer leads 4-0, never lost a set. Caly may be not the favourite surface for both. Federer to win in 2 sets @ 1.65 or less than 20.5 games @1.96 look good.

Vesely - Monfils : Vesely leads 1-0 against Monfils (5 sets in Wimbledon) and defeated Djokovic yesterday. Monfils play wells this season, and seems really commited. Monfils in 2 @ 1.83 ?

Pouille - Tsonga : little surprise yesterday as Pouille won. Could be very tight, Pouille will try to defeated his 3rd French player in a row. Tsonga struggled against Carreno 7/6 7/6. 3 sets @ 2.6 can be a winner.

Goffin - Grannolers : Goffin saved a MP yesterday. Goffin in 2 sets @ 1.74 ? 3 sets @ 2.85 ? Cannot choose.

 

[britbox]

I ended up just taking one bet today - $5 on Thiem win @ 3.4

 

[Bert]

Went on few alternate bets but not betting much today. These matches are not really interesting to bet on maybe better from next round

 

[Bert]

Friday 15/04 :

4 interesting matches today in Monte-Carlo.

Raonic - Murray : Murray leads 4-3 having won the 3 last matches against Raonic. On clay they both won 1 (Murray madrid 2015 / Raonic Barcelona 2012). They both had 2 complicated previous round, in 3 sets, Raonic winning both 7/6 in the third and Murray not playing his best tennis.
Tricky one.

Federer - Tsonga : 11-5 for Federer who leads 3-1 on clay. Tsonga is not showing incredible tennis this season but can upset Federer.

Nadal - Wawrinka : Nadal leads 15-3 against Wawrinka but interesting to note that Wawrinka won 3 out of the 5 last (from Australian Open 2014). Interesting too : only one of these 18 matches didn't go in straight sets. Nadal leads 5-1 on clay, Wawrinka won the last one in Rome (2015).

MOnfils - Granollers : 3-1 for Granollers who won the 3 last matches (last one in Madrid last year). He will try to optimise his lucky loser status.

 

[Bert]

Saturday 16/04 : Monte-Carlo semis

Tsonga - Monfils : Interesting that they never played against each other on clay. Caly is probably the best surface for Monfils. They have played 6 times against each other at ATP level, 5 times in straight sets, Tsonga leads 4-2, Monfils won the last (Miami 2015).
Monfils is given as the favourite today (slightly) @ 1.74. Maybe a close match, so 3 sets @ 2.25 or more than 23 games @ 2.00 are tempting.

Nadal - Murray : 22 matches : 16-6 for Nadal who won 7 out of the 8 on clay. Nadal is given as the big favourite @ 1.36, Nadal in 2 sets @ 2.08, match in 3 sets @ 2.48. Outcome seems pretty clear in bookmakers' mind.

 

[britbox]

I'm going to avoid Tsonga/Monfils - too many question marks.

Nadal/Murray - going heavy on Nadal but just taking the win rather than considering sets.

 

[Bert]

I'm going to avoid Tsonga/Monfils - too many question marks.

Nadal/Murray - going heavy on Nadal but just taking the win rather than considering sets.

Nadal's odds look very short to me. I was expecting him to be given around 1.6. There is something that I don't understand here.

 

[Bert]

Sunday 17/04 : Monte-Carlo final

Nadal leads 11-2 against Monfils, 4-0 on clay without losing a set (2005, 2006, 2010, 2011), won last 3 (2015, 2014, 2014), and won 9 times without losing a set. Monfils won twice in Doha (2009, 2012) in straight sets.
In 13 matches, Nadal won 24 sets and lost 6. They met twice in final, Nadal won both.

Monfils played a great tournament. Nadal only lost a set against Murray. Based on previous matches, Nadal is favourite but crowd will be for the French man who can be the first to win Monte-Carlo Open since Pioline in 2000.

I would be tempted to go with the match in 3 sets @2.65, probably because of my French roots. For Nadal's fans, Nadal in 2 sets @1.87 is tempting.

 

[britbox]

Yeah, 1.87 in 2 is tempting... not a fan of the Spaniard but may have to bite on that one.

 

[Bert]

From today, I will change the format of my posts and I will give everyday one bet, the one that looks to me the safest or/and the most interesting. I will keep updated my performance so we will see how many times I do good predictions I will also keep updated a betting balance assuming that I bet 10$ on each bet, so we will see if we could make some money following my picks.
Feel free to post your picks in the same way so this will give a good source of information for people betting and also a friendly competition between us to be the best tipster

Bert's Pick #1 : T. Daniel vs. M. Linzer in Bucharest.
I pick Daniel @ 1.32. Clay is Daniel's best surface, I could watch some of his matches last week in Monaco, and he plays well. He qualified for the main draw and defeated Mannarino in the first round before losing on Thiem in 3 sets. Today he plays Linzer who is ranked #267 and plays usually on Futures tour. He managed to qualify after two difficult rounds in which he defeated #129 and #227 both in 3 tight sets. Daniel is well above in my opinion.

 

[britbox]

I'm convinced. Will place on Daniel. I'm also liking Baghdatis at around 1.33 in the same tournament against Marco Cecchantino. Baghdatis has been playing well the last few weeks and Cecchantino has only one ATP tour win for the year.