2017 Just Got Really Interesting (Australian Open Takeways)

[El Dude]

I really should go to bed as it is 3am, but I'm so jazzed.

I speak as a jubilant Federer fan - as I said elsewhere, this is my all-time favorite tennis win - but I do think this entire tournament opened up 2017 in a rather surprising way. A few take-aways:

*Novak Djokovic is not back. This isn't to say that he won't come back, but we didn't see it at AO. I'm wondering what he's thinking now, after seeing Fedal in the finals again.

*Andy Murray is a beatable #1. We knew this, but it seems more clear that he probably won't go on an extended dominant streak. Ditto above re: Fedal.

*Grigor Dimitrov is now a factor. Maybe not an elite, but certainly up there with Milos and Kei as the new second tier. I really wouldn't be surprised if he wins a Masters this year. maybe as soon as Indian Wells or Miami; or, if not then, in the second half of the year.

*Rafa is looking very good, and probably goes into clay season as the player to beat. Unless Novak re-finds his form, Rafa is the favorite for Roland Garros. But Rafa fans should be encouraged by his performance during this tournament, and I think losing might even make him a harder player to beat over the next few months.

*Roger Federer. I'm speechless...almost! No one predicted this. If he was going to win #18, it would have been Wimbledon or maybe the US Open if the draw opened up. But he looks great, and is just getting warmed up. We all know Roger plays best when the pressure isn't huge, so it will be interesting to see what he does the rest of the year - he could win another Slam and a few more titles. Or maybe he could lose the fire and quietly fade away and retire...I hope the former, obviously.

*Alex Zverev is getting there, but not yet...That said, he'll reach a Slam second week, but won't be a serious factor until 2018 or 2019.

 

[Front242]

Will Roger get back to #1 ? Stormed back to #10 today and has hardly any points to defend till Wimbledon. After that he again has zero to defend.

 

[kskate2]

Who wants to be #1? All it does is create pressure and put a target on your back. At Roger's age, he should be like Serena and focus on the slams. Look to peak at the majors and play a few well scheduled masters and Dubai.

 

[El Dude]

I agree with Kelli. And as happy as I am with this result, I have a hard time imagining Roger getting back to #1. This Slam was epic, and it gives me hope that he might even win another Slam or two, or at least be a serious contender. But it is hard for me to imagine him fighting this hard at 17 tournaments and 80 more matches this year. I also think the Masters are going to be split up widely. Maybe the YE#1 won't be decided until the WTF.

 

[Front242]

Who wants to be #1? All it does is create pressure and put a target on your back. At Roger's age, he should be like Serena and focus on the slams. Look to peak at the majors and play a few well scheduled masters and Dubai.

I agree except winning matches and tournaments is what gets you there and he has VERY few points to defend besides Wimbledon so I'm actually thinking it's not impossible by any means. Novak and Andy have A TON of points to defend.

 

[rafanoy1992]

First of all, I don't think Federer will become number 1 this year. It it is too much of a commitment for him especially for a 35 year old.

As for Nadal, only time will tell on whether he could win his 15th major. While all of you guys are confident he could snatch his 10th RG crown, which is ironic actually, I'm actually cautiously optimistic he will do it just because he is 30 years old and it is sports.

One last thing, Novak and Andy will be back. They might have stumbled early but they will be back with momentum

Hopefully, Zverev and Dimitrov continue their strong play throughout 2017

 

[crystalfire]

i hope fed focuses on slams and puts less effort into the other tournaments

 

[kskate2]

Who wants to be #1? All it does is create pressure and put a target on your back. At Roger's age, he should be like Serena and focus on the slams. Look to peak at the majors and play a few well scheduled masters and Dubai.

I agree except winning matches and tournaments is what gets you there and he has VERY few points to defend besides Wimbledon so I'm actually thinking it's not impossible by any means. Novak and Andy have A TON of points to defend.

I understand that. But he shouldn't chase it. If he wins enough of the events he enters, it will happen naturally (quality over quantity).

 

[Front242]

Absolutely. I don't mean play some irrelevant 250s just to get number 1 but he can gain so much ground 'cos he has practically nothing to defend besides SF at Wimbledon.

 

[mrzz]

Well, Dude, in a way your "wild west" scenario is already here. From one guy holding all majors, we have now fours guys holding them. If Nadal goes on to win RG, we will have five different winners in a row. I now that you meant something different, but now we have a wild west with just the usual suspects...

I am sure Federer won´t fight for the #1 spot, but as Front said if you keep winning you end up right there. Without someone dominating he has a shot. He has a good shot at IW, a great shot at Wimbledon, a good shot at Cincy and a a good shot at USO, and finally a great shot at YEC. With ND and AM losing early here, is not impossible.

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, it might be the Wild West but, as you say, with slightly different players involved than expected. Or rather, MORE players involved...this tournament has shown that Roger and Rafa are back to Slam form, and now we have Grigor in the mix. So the field is wide open.

As for Roger, I want to re-phrase what I said above. We're in uncharted territory. He hasn't started the year with a Slam trophy since 2010 which was, of course, the end of his prime Slam-winning years. But as I said, Roger does best when he's ahead and the pressure is off, so on one hand it could be that he'll have a great year and maybe win another Slam because now, finally and more than ever, he has nothing more to prove. He beat Rafa in a Slam final; he did something that no one has done since the 70s: win a Slam at 35.

 

[Front242]

Biggest thing I've learned from this year's AO: I literally have to start betting again and backing the opponents of the guys Steve Tignor picks to win. He literally is a living voodoo hex and it may be why Nadal lost today! The guy is like the polar opposite of the Midas touch...

Did he get ANYTHING right this year?

All semi finalists wrong though I already cut him some slack for that as not many predicted Murray and Djokovic would lose so early. Then he had Dimitrov to beat Nadal. Wrong. Wawrinka to beat Federer. Wrong. Venus to beat Serena. Wrong. Raonic to beat Nadal. Wrong. :cover

 

[El Dude]

He had Venus to beat Serena?! That's madness. The only way that would have happened is if Serena colluded to let her big sister win one more.

 

[kskate2]

Yeah Tignor's pretty awful. And it's not a new terrible, it's been this way for quite awhile. :cover

 

[shawnbm]

I can't wait for the double Masters event in March--should be exciting, but the real excitement will be the clay events leading to Paris. A lot is going to play out there and I believe Novak is going to really try and prove something right from the get go. He is going to stomp the hell out of Andy for one thing--and then set his sights on besting Fedal, for he still knows they are the two that can beat him even when playing reasonably well--not Andy or anybody else for that matter.

 

[AnonymousFan]

Most exciting season start since 2011 in my book.

Would be even better if the aging Big 4 had a much younger rival this year.

 

[El Dude]

Would be even better if the aging Big 4 had a much younger rival this year.

Before the AO I was predicting that one Slam--either Wimbledon or the US Open--would go to someone other than the Big Four, and probably someone new like Milos Raonic or Nick Kyrgios. Now I'm thinking that we might see one more year of the Big Four taking all four Slams. Roger and Rafa are back, or at least to Slam-winning level. Presumably this will inspire Novak and Andy to work harder.

So I'm thinking that Roland Garros will be either Rafa or Novak; Wimbledon either Roger, Novak, or Andy; and the US Open any of the above.

But where I do see the younger players competing is in two ways: One, as spoilers at Slams. I could see at least one of the Big Four being taken out by a younger player at every Slam. At RG, for instance, I wouldn't be surprised to see Roger or Andy taken out by someone like Dominic Thiem. At Wimbledon, any number of players players could take out Rafa.

The second area is at Masters. I think one or two, even three, Masters will be won by non-Big Four players. I could see any of Dimitrov, Raonic, Nishikori, Thiem, Kyrgios, and Zverev winning Masters this year.

 

[masterclass]

Don't forget this guy...he can beat anyone and is a threat at any tournament if he can stay healthy

And due to all of the previous wrist injuries/surgeries, he has much lower mileage (matches) than any other active slam winner.

Main Tour matches played
1306 - Federer
0990 - Nadal
0913 - Djokovic
0813 - Sir Murray
0699 - Wawrinka
0604 - Cilic
0485 - Del Potro

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[El Dude]

I'd love to see Delpo win one, I just have a hard time imagining him winning the seven five-setters in a row it would require. Still, he's on the darkhorse list.

 

[isabelle]

I'd love to see Delpo win one, I just have a hard time imagining him winning the seven five-setters in a row it would require. Still, he's on the darkhorse list.

tower of Tandil"ll come back in Delray Beach, then he'll play Acapulco, IW, Miami and Estoril, no MC and Barcelona for him
can't wait to see him back, I missed him in AO, he could have made some waves I guess